The Geopolitical Chessboard: Iran's Afghan Conundrum

Iran and Afghanistan have historically had a volatile relationship, with disputes over water rights, border clashes, and ideological differences. In 1998, Iran almost invaded Afghanistan after the Taliban killed 10 Iranian diplomats and a journalist. Since then, Iran has played an ambiguous role in Afghanistan, with conflicting reports of cooperation and competition. Iran is a significant source of foreign investment and assistance in Afghanistan, but Iranian-made weapons have also been found in the hands of Taliban fighters. While Iran's recent military movements on the Afghan border may be defensive, there is a possibility that they are preparing for a cross-border incursion or exploring offensive options. The complex dynamics between Iran, the Taliban, and other regional powers, such as the United States, contribute to the uncertainty surrounding Iran's intentions and the potential for further conflict or cooperation.

Iran's complicated history with Afghanistan

Iran and Afghanistan have had a long and complex relationship, with ties between the two countries spanning millennia. While the two countries established official relations in 1935, their shared history goes back much further. Afghanistan was once considered an integral part of Iran (historically known as Persia) and was part of various Persian empires, including the Achaemenid and Sasanian dynasties.

However, the relationship between the two countries has been complicated by religious and ideological differences, geopolitical rivalries, and conflicting interests. Iran is a Shia-dominant country, while Afghanistan has a Sunni-led government and a predominantly Sunni population, with an estimated 15 to 29 percent of its population being Shia.

In the late 1990s, Iran and the Taliban-led Afghanistan were sworn enemies. Iran supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance and nearly went to war in 1998 after the Taliban killed several Iranian diplomats and a journalist in Mazar-i-Sharif. Tensions eased after the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001 and overthrew the Taliban regime. Iran cooperated with the United States during this period, providing intelligence support.

Following the Taliban's return to power in 2021, relations between Iran and Afghanistan have been marked by deepening border clashes and tensions over issues such as water rights, trade, and the Taliban's treatment of Shia minorities. Iran has accused the Taliban of violating its water rights to the Helmand River, an issue that has been a source of dispute between the two countries for decades.

Iran has also been accused of playing a "double game" in Afghanistan, providing support to both the Afghan government and the Taliban. While Iran has been a source of foreign investment and assistance in Afghanistan's post-Taliban development, Iranian-made weapons have been found in the hands of Taliban fighters, raising questions about Iran's true intentions.

Overall, Iran's relationship with Afghanistan is complex and multifaceted, shaped by historical, religious, and geopolitical factors. Despite their differences, the two countries have also found areas of cooperation and collaboration, particularly in the aftermath of the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan.

Iran's current intentions and scenarios

Iran's intentions in Afghanistan are multifaceted and complex, with Tehran exploring various options to secure its interests. Iran's relationship with Afghanistan is historically volatile, and the country's actions are often shrouded in ambiguity. Iran's primary goals appear to be protecting its eastern border, exerting regional influence, and countering US influence in the region. Here are the possible scenarios for Iran's involvement in Afghanistan:

• Support for Taliban Takeover: Iran has a history of supporting the Taliban, particularly in their fight against the Islamic State-Khorasan. Tehran respects the Taliban's resilience and shares their hostility towards the United States. Iran may be willing to cooperate strategically with the Taliban, provided there are credible guarantees for safeguarding the interests of Afghanistan's Shia minority. Supporting a Taliban takeover could be a way for Iran to increase its regional influence and score points against the US. However, there are concerns that a full Taliban takeover could empower even more extremist Sunni elements, leading to attacks on Shia communities and a refugee crisis on Iran's border.
• Waging a Proxy War: Iran has significant experience in Iraq and Syria, and it could use this knowledge to wage a proxy war in Afghanistan. Iran already has an effective weapon in this scenario: the Fatemiyoun Brigade, a militia composed of Afghan fighters recruited, trained, and equipped by the Iranian Qods Force. Iran could also form additional militias inside Afghanistan by organizing and training locals seeking employment.
• Direct Intervention: If Iran's goal is to support Afghanistan's central government, protect the Shia population, or maintain the status quo, it may opt for direct military action. This could include capturing the provincial capital of Herat, a traditional stronghold for Iran. However, such an action would be costly and require a substantial military presence and long, vulnerable supply lines. Alternatively, Iran could attempt to create a buffer zone on the Afghan side of the border and establish land bridges to Shia areas using a combination of Fatemiyoun units, IRGC artillery, armed drones, and precision missile fire.
• Water Rights: Iran and Afghanistan have a long-standing dispute over the Helmand River, which dates back to the 1870s. Iran is supposed to receive 820 million cubic meters of water from the river annually, according to a 1973 treaty. However, Afghanistan has built several new dams, and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has warned the Taliban not to violate Iran's water rights. This issue is a significant source of tension between the two countries.
• Economic Influence: Iran seeks to create an economic sphere of influence in Afghanistan, particularly in the Herat region. Iran has invested heavily in infrastructure projects, road and bridge construction, education, agriculture, power generation, and telecommunications in this region. By increasing its economic influence, Iran aims to become a powerful strategic focal point for the transport and shipment of goods in the region.

In conclusion, Iran's current intentions in Afghanistan are a mix of supporting the Taliban, exerting regional influence, protecting its border, and countering US influence. Tehran is exploring various options, including direct intervention, proxy warfare, and diplomatic efforts, to secure its interests and avoid dangerous destabilization in Afghanistan.

Iran's role in Afghanistan's post-Taliban development

Iran has played a pivotal role in Afghanistan's post-Taliban development. It is a large source of foreign direct investment and provides assistance in critical national infrastructure, road construction, distribution of energy supplies, and agricultural and communications development. Iran also shares ethnic, linguistic, and religious links with millions of Afghan Shi'a, particularly the Shi'a-minority Hazara community.

However, Iran's role in Afghanistan is ambiguous. Iranian-made armaments have been discovered in the hands of Afghan Taliban fighters, raising concerns about Tehran's overall strategy. Iran's Supreme National Security Council voted for war after the Taliban killed several Iranian diplomats and a journalist in Mazar-i-Sharif in 1998. The Taliban's seizure of power in Afghanistan in 2021 further strained relations between the two countries.

Iran's interests in Afghanistan are twofold: preserving stability and opposing the presence of foreign forces, especially the US. Iran perceives the presence of US forces as a threat to its national security and a strategy to strengthen the US's position in Central and South Asia at Iran's expense. Iran also believes that US policies in Afghanistan undermine its legitimate demands, including re-establishing close political and economic ties with Afghanistan.

Iran's foreign policy in Afghanistan is influenced by its "Look to the East" grand strategy, which seeks increased energy and economic relations with eastern countries in Asia, particularly India, China, and Japan. Iran's influence in Afghanistan is also shaped by its opposition to the presence of foreign forces and its desire to preserve stability and support the Afghan central government.

Iran's relationship with the Taliban has been complex. During the Taliban's rule from 1996 to 2001, Iran supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance. However, in the post-9/11 world order, Iran's attitude towards the Taliban changed as new geopolitical realities emerged. Iran has provided support to both the Afghan government and the Taliban, attempting to keep them divided and influence political developments.

Iran's influence in Afghanistan is significant due to geopolitical factors and cultural links. However, Tehran faces constraints due to growing social and economic problems at home, including restlessness among its youth population and a deteriorating economy due to Western sanctions and low oil prices.

In summary, Iran's role in Afghanistan's post-Taliban development is multifaceted and shaped by its regional ambitions, ideological differences, and strategic interests. While Iran seeks stability and influence in its neighboring country, its ambiguous actions and shifting alliances contribute to a complex and dynamic relationship.

Iran-Taliban relations

A Complex Relationship

Iran and the Taliban have had a complex and often fraught relationship. Iran, a majority Shiite country, and the Taliban, dominated by Sunni fundamentalists, have historically been at odds. In 1998, Iran almost invaded Afghanistan after the Taliban murdered several Iranian diplomats and a journalist in Mazar-i-Sharif. This incident led to a military mobilisation by Iran, only defused through UN mediation.

However, in the years that followed, Iran's relationship with the Taliban became more nuanced. During the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan, Iran cooperated with US forces, with Iranian special forces supporting the Northern Alliance during the Herat uprising. But at the same time, the US accused Iran of providing sanctuaries and material support to the Taliban.

A Shared Enemy

In more recent years, Iran and the Taliban have found common ground in their shared opposition to the Islamic State and its Afghan affiliate, Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K). With the rise of IS-K in 2014 and 2015, Iran began backing, bankrolling, training, and arming the Taliban in their fight against IS-K and US-led forces.

Iran has also supported the Taliban in taking control of Afghanistan, seeing it as an opportunity to increase its local influence and counter US power in the region. Iran was one of the few countries that kept its embassy open when the Taliban took over Kabul in 2021, and it has maintained some level of cooperation with the Taliban government.

A Pragmatic Partnership

Despite their ideological differences, Iran and the Taliban have found pragmatic reasons to work together. Iran sees the Taliban as a bulwark against the spread of Sunni jihadism in the region, and the Taliban relies on Iran for economic support and fuel exports.

However, the relationship remains complex and ambiguous. Iran has been accused of playing a "double game" in Afghanistan, providing support to the Taliban while also pursuing its own interests through militias and other proxies. There have also been several border clashes between Iranian and Taliban forces, and Iran has expressed concern over the Taliban's treatment of Shiite minorities in Afghanistan.

A Precarious Future

The future of Iran-Taliban relations remains uncertain. On the one hand, Iran may see the Taliban as a necessary partner in fighting the spread of Sunni jihadism and maintaining stability in the region. On the other hand, the Taliban's inability to govern effectively and address socioeconomic issues in Afghanistan, as well as their treatment of minority groups, may lead to tensions and conflicts with Iran.

Iran's ultimate goal is to protect its interests and maintain its influence in the region. Whether this means continuing to cooperate with the Taliban or pursuing alternative strategies remains to be seen.

The potential for friction between Iran and the Taliban

Since then, relations have been strained, with Iran supporting the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and the subsequent formation of the Afghan government. However, the two countries have also found common ground in their opposition to the US and the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K). Iran has also sought to protect Shia Muslim communities in Afghanistan, particularly the Hazara minority, who have been persecuted by the Taliban.

More recently, tensions have escalated due to disputes over water rights to the Helmand River, which date back to the 1870s. In May 2023, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warned the Taliban not to violate Iran's rights to the river's water, urging them to implement a 1973 treaty. This led to a brief clash between Iranian border guards and the Taliban, which was quickly de-escalated.

Iran's complex relationship with the Taliban can be attributed to several factors, including ideological differences, competing geopolitical interests, and the desire to exert influence in the region. Iran's support for the Taliban has also been met with criticism from both Afghan and Iranian citizens, who view the group with disgust due to their harsh interpretation of Islam and history of violence.

Despite the potential for friction, Iran has also sought to improve relations with the Taliban, with Iranian officials hosting delegations from the group and expressing a willingness to work together. However, the unpredictable nature of the Taliban and the presence of more extremist elements within the group could lead to a deterioration of relations and potentially open warfare if Iran's interests are threatened.

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