Russia's Foreign Policy In Belarus: An Analysis

Russia's foreign policy in Belarus is largely based on the two countries' geographic proximity, shared history, and cultural links. Russia is Belarus's key trade partner and a major export market for Belarusian manufactures. In 1999, the two countries reached an agreement to become a union state, with a shared government, currency, flag, and army. This agreement is part of Moscow's effort to reestablish regional hegemony in the former Soviet space.

Russia's importance in Belarus's economy has markedly increased since the election of Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko in 1994. Cheap oil and gas exported from Russia represent 15% of Belarus's GDP, and Russia accounts for 41% of Belarusian exports. Belarus has also served as Russia's middleman in times of escalated tension with the West, importing goods from the European Union and re-exporting them to Russia.

However, the relationship has had its share of tensions, with both sides meddling in each other's markets. Belarus's economic dependence on Russia has prevented it from setting stronger boundaries with Moscow. Lukashenko has previously attempted to maintain Belarus's independence, but an uprising in 2020 that threatened to unseat him forced him to turn to Moscow for support.

The Belarus-Russia alliance has raised security concerns in Europe, particularly with neighboring Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, all of which are NATO and EU members. Belarus's role in the Russia-Ukraine war and its widening military cooperation with Moscow have further escalated tensions in the region.

The Union State of Belarus and Russia

The first significant step towards integration was the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation, signed in 1995, which sought deeper economic integration, the formation of a single economic space, and the coordination of military activities. This was followed by the Treaty on the Creation of the Community of Russia and Belarus in 1996, which aimed for further integration in the economic and humanitarian domains, as well as cooperation in foreign policy, security, border protection, and crime prevention.

The Treaty on the Union of Belarus and Russia, signed in 1997, stipulated the implementation of a coordinated foreign and defence policy, joint citizenship, and a common market for goods, services, capital, and labour. Finally, the Treaty on the Creation of a Union State, signed on December 8, 1999, and ratified by both countries in late December 1999 and January 2000, marked the conclusion of the integration process.

While the Union State has made significant progress in some areas, such as military cooperation, many of the economic and political plans have not been fully realised. For instance, the planned monetary union and common currency have not come to fruition, and the customs union was suspended in 2001, only to be restored in 2010.

In recent years, Belarus and Russia have renewed efforts towards deeper integration, with Belarus and Russia agreeing on provisions related to customs services cooperation and the coordination of industrial policies. However, they have yet to reach a consensus on more contentious issues such as oil and gas prices, tax policies, and the creation of a single currency.

Energy, transport and industrial cooperation

Energy, transport, and industrial cooperation between Russia and Belarus are all underpinned by the Agreement on the Establishment of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, which was signed by the heads of both states in 1999. This agreement sets out a legal basis for integration between the two countries.

In the field of energy, Belarus and Russia have a long history of cooperation. In February 2021, the two countries signed an agreement to redirect exports of Belarusian petroleum products from Baltic ports to Russian ones. This agreement covers the handling of up to 9.8 million tonnes of fuel over three years, with the first deliveries scheduled for March 2021. This move was largely political, as Belarus sought to retaliate against the Baltic states' criticism of the 2020 rigged presidential election. While the agreement is more favourable to Russia, it serves as a bargaining chip for Belarus in renegotiating the terms of Russian gas and oil supplies.

However, the redirection of exports to Russia is questionable in terms of cost-efficiency. Russian ports have higher transhipment fees than Baltic ports, and the greater distance to Belarusian fuel outlets will also increase costs. Despite the agreement, Belarus is unlikely to completely discontinue its collaboration with Baltic ports, particularly in Lithuania, due to financial considerations.

In terms of transport, the Agreement on the Establishment of the Union State of Belarus and Russia has facilitated the free movement of citizens between the two countries. Citizens of Belarus and Russia can cross the mutual border without undergoing passport or customs controls, reflecting the close integration between the two countries.

In the industrial sector, Russia is Belarus's key trade partner and a major export market for Belarusian manufactures. At the end of 2022, mutual trade between the two countries increased by almost 15%, with Russia accounting for more than half of Belarus's foreign trade. Joint projects were launched in 2022 to produce import-substituting products based on Belarusian industry flagships, demonstrating the countries' commitment to industrial cooperation.

Both countries actively participate in other integration projects in the post-Soviet area, such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which they consider the most advanced integration community in the region. The EEU aims to create conditions for the free flow of goods, services, capital, and labour force, as well as equal conditions for economic agents.

Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)

The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is an economic union of five post-Soviet states located in Eurasia: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia. The EEU was established by treaty in 2014 and officially implemented on 1 January 2015. The union has a combined population of over 180 million people and a gross domestic product of over $2.4 trillion.

The EEU aims to create a common market similar to the European Union (EU) by coordinating economic policy, eliminating non-tariff trade barriers, harmonizing regulations, and modernizing the economies of its member states. The union encourages the free movement of goods, services, labour, and capital, and provides for common policies in various sectors, including energy, transport, industry, agriculture, foreign trade, and investment.

The EEU has its own institutions, including the Eurasian Economic Commission in Moscow as its regulatory body and a Court of the Eurasian Economic Union based in Minsk. The Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, composed of the heads of member states, is the union's governing body, while the Eurasian Economic Commission oversees day-to-day operations.

The EEU is considered an important geopolitical project for Russia, serving as a way to re-establish its influence in the former Soviet region. Russia dominates the union, and its trade with other member states accounts for a significant portion of their economic activity. The EEU has been criticized for its fragmented nature, with Russia often acting unilaterally and smaller member states having limited power.

The EEU has been impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the US and EU imposing sanctions on Russia and Belarus. Despite these challenges, the EEU continues to seek economic cooperation with other regions, including East Asia and the Middle East.

Belarus's role in the Russia-Ukraine war

Belarus has played a significant role in Russia's war with Ukraine, despite not formally fighting in the conflict. The country has provided military assistance to Russia, including allowing its territory to be used for training conscripts, launching missile attacks, and storing military equipment. Belarus also served as a base for Russia's initial invasion of northern Ukraine.

The relationship between Russia and Belarus is a strategic one, with the two countries signing an agreement in 1999 to become a "union state", aiming for economic integration and defence cooperation. Russia is Belarus's key trade partner, and the country's largest export market. Russia accounts for more than half of Belarus's foreign trade, with cheap oil and gas exports comprising 15% of Belarus's GDP.

The countries also have a joint military force, and they coordinate their air defence systems and military exercises. Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, has been pushing for a permanent military base in Belarus since 2015, and the country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has been increasingly reliant on Russia for support since mass protests against his regime in 2020.

However, Lukashenko has been reluctant to commit troops to the war in Ukraine, despite pressure from Putin. This is likely due to the unpopularity of such a move at home, where Lukashenko has already faced significant opposition. A poll in August 2022 found that over 90% of Belarusians were against joining the war on Russia's side. There is also a Belarusian rebel brigade fighting for Ukraine, so the Belarus army could end up clashing with its own people.

Despite Lukashenko's resistance to sending troops, Russia's presence in Belarus remains a significant concern for Ukraine and Western nations. The threat of Belarusian involvement serves as a deterrence, keeping Ukrainian forces on alert and creating a distraction from other fronts. Additionally, the presence of Russian troops in Belarus means they are much closer to the border with Poland than ever before, indicating a potential permanent military presence.

The future of Belarus's role in the war is uncertain, but it is clear that the country's proximity and relationship with Russia will continue to be a strategic advantage for Moscow and a challenge for Ukraine and its allies.

The Belarus-Russia alliance and European security

The Belarus-Russia alliance has significant implications for European security. Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war has tightened the bonds between Minsk and Moscow, and brought their lopsided alliance one step closer to full-fledged integration. Belarus's complicity in Russia's invasion of Ukraine has also raised tensions with neighbouring NATO and EU members Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, who are ramping up security on their eastern borders.

Belarus has provided Russia with a major strategic advantage in the war against Ukraine. In late 2021 and early 2022, Belarus allowed Russian forces to stage their assault on Kyiv from its territory, which lies just 80km north of the Ukrainian capital. This gave Russia a significant advantage as an attack from the Russian border with Ukraine would have to cover twice the distance. The shorter route from Belarus also allowed part of the Russian offensive to strike Kyiv from the west, without having to cross the Dnipro River.

In recent months, Belarus has also become a base and training ground for the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organisation, and has reportedly hosted Russian tactical nuclear weapons. These developments have further raised tensions with neighbouring Poland and the Baltic states, all NATO members and strong supporters of Ukraine.

Prior to its role in the Russia-Ukraine war, Belarus served as a strategic buffer between Russia and Central Europe. However, the Lukashenko regime's complicity in the invasion and its widening military cooperation with Moscow will likely have enduring consequences for European security. While Belarusian troops have not joined the war, the regime continues to provide Russia with essential support as a base of operations. Thousands of Russian military members continue to train in Belarus alongside Wagner paramilitary fighters. Their ongoing presence has compelled Ukraine to boost fortifications along its 1,000km border with Belarus, expending resources that could otherwise be used in its counteroffensive in the east.

The presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus and Putin's reemphasis of the two countries' collective defence further underscores the heightened security concerns in Europe. Putin has stated that "an aggression against Belarus would mean an aggression against the Russian Federation."

The Belarus-Russia alliance has also resulted in increased tensions with neighbouring Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. These countries blame Lukashenko for facilitating the trafficking of thousands of migrants from the Middle East and North Africa across their borders. In response, these countries have constructed hundreds of miles of barriers along Belarus's western borders, which some analysts have characterised as a new "iron curtain".

The alliance between Belarus and Russia, and Belarus's role in the Russia-Ukraine war, have significantly impacted European security. The widening military cooperation between the two countries and the presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus have raised tensions with neighbouring NATO and EU members. Belarus's complicity in the invasion and its continued support for Russia as a base of operations have also compelled Ukraine to boost fortifications along its border, diverting resources from its counteroffensive in the east. The Belarus-Russia alliance has thus contributed to a more precarious security situation in Europe.

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