The Elusive Victory: Afghanistan's Historical Resistance

The War in Afghanistan was the longest war in American history, lasting from 2001 to 2021. It was sparked by the September 11 attacks, which were plotted by al-Qaeda, an organisation led by Osama bin Laden, who was given sanctuary by the Taliban, the ultraconservative political and religious faction that ruled Afghanistan at the time.

The war began when an international military coalition led by the United States launched Operation Enduring Freedom, invading Afghanistan and declaring war on terror. The US-led forces toppled the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirate and established the Islamic Republic. The Taliban and its allies were expelled from major population centres, but Osama bin Laden relocated to neighbouring Pakistan.

The conflict officially ended with the 2021 Taliban offensive, which overthrew the Islamic Republic and re-established the Islamic Emirate. The war killed an estimated 176,000–212,000+ people, including 46,319 civilians.

The Taliban's rise to power

The Taliban, meaning "students" or "seekers of knowledge" in Pashto, rose to power in Afghanistan in the mid-1990s following the withdrawal of Soviet troops, the collapse of Afghanistan's communist regime, and the subsequent breakdown in civil order. Here is a detailed account of their rise to power:

Origin and First Regime:

• The Taliban emerged in the aftermath of the Afghan War (1978-1992), which saw the downfall of the Soviet-backed Afghan Marxist regime and a period of civil war among rival mujahideen groups.
• The new "Islamic State of Afghanistan" was dominated by Tajik and Uzbek leaders, causing resentment among the Pashtun population, who had traditionally held power in Afghanistan.
• The country was plagued by lawlessness, corruption, and human rights abuses, with warlords and militias exerting control over different regions.
• The Taliban's rise began in 1994 when a group of former mujahideen fighters associated with a religious school in Kandahar province successfully subdued a local warlord and began to pacify nearby areas.
• They gained popularity by promising security and stability, imposing a strict interpretation of Islamic law, and cracking down on crime and corruption.
• By late 1996, the Taliban had seized control of Kabul and gained effective control over approximately two-thirds of the country.

External Support:

• The Taliban received significant external support, particularly from Pakistan, which saw the group as a way to exert influence in Afghanistan and counter Indian influence in the region.
• Pakistan's intelligence services, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), played a crucial role in providing military assistance, training, and logistical support to the Taliban.
• Saudi Arabia was also a key supporter, providing financial backing and promoting the spread of its conservative Islamic ideology in religious schools along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
• Other countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, also provided diplomatic recognition and support to the Taliban.

Domestic Factors:

• The Taliban's rise was aided by divisions among the non-Pashtun ethnic groups (Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras) who opposed them. These groups were unable to unite and present a unified front against the Taliban.
• The Taliban exploited the popular desire for stability and an end to the constant conflict that had plagued Afghanistan since the Soviet withdrawal. Many Afghans, especially Pashtuns, saw Taliban rule as preferable to the chaos and infighting among other factions.
• The Taliban's strict interpretation of Islamic law, which included harsh punishments and restrictions on women, gained support from those who wanted a return to traditional values and order.

Confrontation with the US:

• The Taliban gained international attention and scrutiny due to their association with Osama bin Laden, who found refuge in Afghanistan after being exiled from Sudan in 1996.
• Bin Laden's presence, along with the Taliban's refusal to extradite him, led to increasing tensions with the United States, which saw the group as a sponsor of global terrorism.
• The Taliban's rule was marked by brutality, human rights abuses, and the imposition of strict Islamic law, causing a decline in their domestic support and making it difficult to recruit native Afghan men.
• Despite these issues, the Taliban maintained control over most of Afghanistan until the US-led invasion in 2001, which drove them from power.

In summary, the Taliban's rise to power was a complex interplay of domestic and international factors. They exploited a power vacuum, offered stability, and gained support by imposing a strict interpretation of Islamic law. External support, particularly from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, was crucial, along with divisions among their opponents. Their association with Osama bin Laden brought them into direct confrontation with the US, ultimately leading to their removal from power in 2001.

The US-led invasion

The invasion toppled the Taliban, which had been in power since 1996. The Taliban was an ultraconservative political and religious faction that ruled Afghanistan and provided sanctuary for al-Qaeda, the perpetrators of the September 11 attacks.

The invasion was supported by the UK, and later, a large multinational force. The US-led coalition drove the Taliban from power and built military bases near major cities across the country. However, most al-Qaeda and Taliban members were not captured and escaped to neighbouring Pakistan or retreated to remote mountainous regions.

The invasion was a swift military success, but the US-led coalition soon faced a protracted insurgency. The Taliban regrouped and launched an insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces. By 2007, large parts of Afghanistan had been retaken by the Taliban.

The Taliban's fall

The Taliban's loss at Mazar-e-Sharif was a decisive moment in the war, and it was followed by a series of coalition and Northern Alliance victories. On November 11, Taliban strongholds in Taloqan and Bamiyan fell, followed by Herat on November 12, and Kabul on November 13. On November 14, the Taliban lost Jalalabad, and their regime unravelled rapidly.

The Taliban's swift fall in 2001 was due in part to the Northern Alliance, a coalition of anti-Taliban militias led by the legendary guerrilla commander Ahmad Shah Massoud. The Northern Alliance was crucial in the U.S.-led coalition's fight against the Taliban, and they played a key role in the fall of Mazar-e-Sharif and other cities.

Another factor contributing to the Taliban's fall was the lack of popular support. The Taliban had imposed a strict interpretation of Islamic law, forbidding women from working outside the home or attending school and imposing harsh punishments such as amputations and executions. This had led to widespread resentment among the Afghan people, and when the U.S.-led coalition began their invasion, the Taliban quickly lost territory as local leaders and military personnel surrendered or negotiated deals.

The fall of the Taliban in 2001 was a significant victory for the U.S.-led coalition, and it marked the beginning of a new phase in Afghanistan's history. However, the Taliban would regroup and launch a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces, leading to a protracted conflict that would last for two decades.

The Taliban's resurgence

The Taliban began to reorganize and plan a resurgence as early as 2002. They took advantage of the US's focus on Iraq, which diverted resources from Afghanistan. They also capitalized on the US's aggressive counter-terrorism and vengeance for 9/11, which fueled recruitment and popular support.

By 2005, the Taliban had regrouped and rearmed, launching guerrilla attacks against Afghan government soldiers, NGO humanitarian workers, and US troops. They also began to build up forces in strategic districts, such as Dey Chopan in Zabul Province. In 2006, insurgent attacks in Afghanistan reportedly grew fourfold compared to 2002, and by late 2007, the country was said to be in "serious danger" of falling into Taliban control despite the presence of 40,000 ISAF troops.

By 2009, there was broad agreement in Afghanistan that the war should end, but how to achieve this was a significant issue. The Taliban's resurgence was further facilitated by the withdrawal of most foreign forces from Afghanistan, which reduced the risk of airstrikes and raids. The comparative lack of interest from the international community, as attention shifted to other global crises, also emboldened the Taliban. Additionally, the Afghan security forces lacked air power, reconnaissance, and effective leadership, and the Taliban exploited political infighting in the central government in Kabul.

The US-Taliban deal

The deal included a conditional timeline for the withdrawal of US and foreign troops from Afghanistan. The US agreed to reduce its troop numbers from 12,000 to 8,600 within 135 days, and if the Taliban adhered to its commitments, all US and foreign troops would leave within 14 months. The agreement also paved the way for intra-Afghan negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government, which were scheduled to begin in March 2020.

However, the US-Taliban deal was just the first step towards achieving a comprehensive settlement. The bigger challenge was reaching a deal between the Taliban and the Afghan government, which faced obstacles such as continued Taliban violence, a weak Afghan government, and objections from outside countries. The intra-Afghan talks were slow to make progress, with little discussion on addressing the root causes of the conflict, including power-sharing, the role of democracy and theocracy, women's rights, and the integration of fighting factions.

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