The Taliban's Governance Challenge: Can They Run Afghanistan?

The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 has raised questions about their ability to govern effectively. With their harsh interpretation of Islamic law, crackdown on women's rights, and neglect of basic services, the Taliban face significant challenges in running the country. The group has struggled to transition from an insurgent group to a functional government, and their policies have led to a collapsing economy, humanitarian crisis, and widespread malnutrition. The Taliban's cabinet, filled with longtime key figures, does not reflect Afghan diversity and has been met with defiance by anti-Taliban politicians. The group's rejection of Western democracy and lack of commitment to holding elections further complicate their governance. Additionally, the freezing of Afghan central bank assets and international financial restrictions have hindered their ability to access funds and manage the economy. While the Taliban have shown some compromises on social policies, their overall governance has regressed, especially in urban areas, impacting the lives of women and girls significantly.

The Taliban's ability to govern

Firstly, the Taliban faces the challenge of transitioning from an insurgent group to a functional government. This is a significant shift in role and responsibility, and the group has a history of being a fighting force, which is very different from governing a country.

Secondly, the Taliban has to deal with a struggling economy. Afghanistan has long been dependent on foreign aid and illicit economies, with formal legal revenues making up only a small portion of the country's income. However, with the Taliban now in power, many international donors have cut off aid, causing a financial squeeze. This has resulted in decreasing cash liquidity, driving up inflation, and negatively impacting the most vulnerable Afghans. The Taliban government may soon face difficulties in paying civil servants and teachers, and it is uncertain if they can maintain revenues from transport and illicit activities.

Thirdly, the Taliban's governance structure and cabinet selections have been criticized for not reflecting Afghanistan's diversity. The appointments are filled with longtime key Taliban figures, indicating a desire for continuity rather than a willingness to compromise or show moderation. The exclusion of women and several ethnic groups from the cabinet has drawn criticism, and the Taliban's social policies, such as restrictions on women's education and employment, have led to protests from brave Afghan women and girls.

The Taliban's ability to maintain economic stability and address the diverse needs of its citizens will be crucial in determining their success in governing Afghanistan. Their harsh interpretation of Islamic law, neglect of basic services, and rollback of women's rights have negatively impacted the country. The group's financial management capabilities are also questionable, with the appointment of officials lacking financial or economic expertise to key positions.

Overall, the Taliban faces significant challenges in governing Afghanistan effectively, and their decisions and policies have already had detrimental effects on the country's economy, social progress, and human rights situation.

The economy

Afghanistan's economy has been in a dire state since the Taliban took control. The country was already one of the poorest in the world, and the Taliban's takeover has only exacerbated the situation. The Taliban inherited a weak economy plagued by insecurity, COVID, corruption, government over-centralization, declining revenues, and drought. The Taliban's rapid and complete victory over the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan has further shocked the country's economy.

The Taliban's economic management has been better than expected in some areas, such as macroeconomic management, with a stable exchange rate, low inflation, effective revenue collection, and rising exports. They have also reduced corruption, particularly in customs, and clamped down on capital flight. However, their authoritarian regime has made some significant missteps that threaten the country's economic stability.

One of the most damaging decisions has been the ban on female education and the prohibition of Afghan women working in NGOs and the UN, which will have long-term negative consequences for the country's economic and social development and accelerate the "brain drain" of educated women and men. The Taliban's opium poppy cultivation ban has also resulted in a significant loss of income for rural households, and their aggressive revenue collection efforts may hinder private sector incentives and economic recovery.

The Taliban's takeover has led to a severe economic shock, with the abrupt cutoff of nearly all aid, amounting to about $8 billion per year, or 40% of Afghanistan's GDP. This has been compounded by the stoppage of international financial transactions, the collapse of the banking system, existing US and UN sanctions, and the freezing of Afghanistan's foreign exchange reserves. As a result, Afghanistan's GDP is estimated to have dropped by around 20% following the Taliban's rise to power, further increasing hunger and poverty.

The country's currency, the afghani, has plummeted, raising the cost of imports and exacerbating inflation and a cost-of-living crisis. The banking sector is dysfunctional due to constraints on international transfers and concerns about liquidity and solvency. The Taliban's takeover has also disrupted basic social services, which are now in danger of being devastated by potential Taliban restrictions, particularly on girls' education.

The economic situation in Afghanistan is highly uncertain, with the threat of stagnation looming. Structural deficiencies in the private sector and waning international support for essential services impede any significant economic progress. This economic stagnation will deepen poverty and unemployment, and food insecurity is expected to increase.

Afghanistan's long-term growth prospects rely on shifting from reliance on international aid and consumption-driven growth to a more resilient, private sector-led economy that capitalizes on the country's inherent strengths, particularly in the agricultural and extractive sectors. Strategic investments in irrigation infrastructure, land tenure security, research, and market access are needed to enhance agricultural productivity and create jobs.

The Taliban's control of the Afghan economy has created substantial economic policy challenges for the United States and the international community. The US government and its partners must navigate a delicate balance between exerting financial leverage to influence the Taliban's behavior and avoiding total economic disengagement, which could precipitate an economic and humanitarian catastrophe.

Women's rights

Since the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, women's rights have been severely restricted. Women have been banned from working, attending school, and appearing in public without a male chaperone. They are also required to wear full-body veils when in public and are forbidden from travelling alone.

The Taliban's restrictions on women's rights have effectively erased women and girls from public and social life in Afghanistan. Women have been excluded from public life and their access to civil rights and liberties has been radically reduced. They are no longer allowed to participate in the judicial system and have been removed from positions of power, with not a single woman serving as a minister in the new Afghan government.

The situation for women in Afghanistan is particularly dire, with two-thirds of the population dependent on humanitarian assistance. Women have lost the right to self-determination, and 20 years of progress on women's rights have been wiped out. The Taliban's decrees and guidelines violate the human rights of women and girls, including the right to freedom of movement, expression, and education.

Despite initial promises to respect women's rights within the framework of Sharia law, the Taliban has issued numerous decrees that prevent women and girls from exercising their basic rights. Afghans who protest these restrictions are threatened, arrested, and tortured.

The future for women in Afghanistan under Taliban rule appears dark, with limited access to education, employment, and basic rights.

The humanitarian crisis

Afghanistan is facing a complex and severe humanitarian crisis, with millions of Afghans enduring the consequences of four decades of conflict, poverty, natural disasters, and economic downturn. The situation has been exacerbated by the Taliban's takeover of the country in August 2021, which led to a political transition, economic contraction, and reduced levels of donor funding. The crisis is particularly impacting women and girls, with the Taliban's restrictions hindering their access to services and limiting their involvement in life outside the home.

The Afghanistan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) 2024 identifies food, healthcare services, education, water, sanitation, and hygiene as key priorities. The plan also emphasizes the need for protection of vulnerable groups, including children, women-headed households, and people living with disabilities. Limited funding has been a key challenge, affecting the ability of national and international organizations to provide assistance.

The economic situation in Afghanistan is severe, with high levels of unemployment and food insecurity. The Taliban's restrictive policies on women's education and work further hinder recovery prospects and social cohesion. The World Bank expects the Afghan economy to remain stagnant in 2023, after contracting by 25% since August 2021.

The loss of foreign development aid and Taliban rights violations have resulted in a catastrophic health crisis, with the cost of treatment and medicine becoming unaffordable for many Afghans. The Taliban's ban on women working for NGOs has also impacted their access to health services, including sexual and reproductive health care. Infectious disease outbreaks, such as measles, dengue fever, and acute respiratory infections, are on the rise.

The country is facing a hunger crisis, with over 15 million people facing acute food insecurity. Malnutrition is a growing concern, and the World Food Programme has had to cut support for 10 million people due to funding shortages. The situation is particularly dire for children, with an estimated 875,000 children under five needing treatment for severe wasting in 2022.

The rights of women and girls in Afghanistan have been severely restricted by the Taliban. They have been banned from secondary and higher education, prohibited from working, and barred from participating in political or public life. They are also not allowed to move around unless accompanied by a male chaperone. Women-led organizations are facing funding gaps and operational constraints due to the Taliban's policies.

The international community is struggling to balance providing desperately needed aid while pressuring the Taliban regime to moderate its hardline policies. While humanitarian assistance is crucial, there is a need for long-term sustainable solutions, including economic stability and resumed development aid.

The Taliban's relationship with al-Qaeda

The Taliban and al-Qaeda have a long history together, dating back to the 1990s when the Taliban provided al-Qaeda with a safe haven in Afghanistan. The Taliban's leader, Mullah Omar, even swore a religious oath of allegiance to al-Qaeda's leader, Osama bin Laden.

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