The Taliban's Rule: A Complex Reality For Afghanistan's Future

The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan has been described as a stunning tragedy and a disaster for the country. The Taliban's harsh rule has been characterised by a crackdown on women's rights, a struggling economy, and a close relationship with al-Qaeda, leading to concerns that Afghanistan could become a safe haven for terrorists.

The Taliban's takeover has resulted in a rollback of women's rights, with most women banned from working and girls prohibited from attending secondary school and university. The economy has also suffered, with malnutrition soaring and hundreds of thousands of jobs lost.

The Taliban's return to power has also raised concerns about the group's relationship with terrorist organisations, particularly al-Qaeda. Analysts worry that the Taliban could provide safe havens for terrorist groups and allow them to launch international attacks from Afghan soil.

The international community's response to the Taliban's return to power has been mixed, with some calling for engagement and others advocating for sanctions and isolation.

The Taliban's impact on women's rights

Since the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, the human rights situation in the country has been abysmal, with women and girls experiencing the worst of the regime's policies. The Taliban have imposed a series of restrictions that have stripped women of their basic human rights, including their rights to education, employment, freedom of movement, and healthcare.

Education

Upon retaking power, the Taliban prohibited girls from attending secondary schools and transformed the Ministry of Women's Affairs, which was tasked with safeguarding women's rights, into the Ministry for the Prevention of Vice and Promotion of Virtue. In December 2022, the Taliban banned women from attending universities, preventing them from accessing tertiary education. This move has been widely condemned by the international community and has led to protests by Afghan women demanding their right to education.

Employment

The Taliban have also imposed restrictions on women's employment, banning them from working in various sectors, including government, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and the United Nations. This has resulted in a loss of livelihood for many women and pushed families deeper into poverty.

Freedom of Movement

The Taliban have severely restricted women's freedom of movement by requiring them to be accompanied by a male guardian (mahram) when leaving their homes. Women are not allowed to travel beyond a certain distance without a mahram and must adhere to strict dress codes, wearing full veils when in public.

Healthcare

The Taliban's restrictions on women's access to healthcare have been detrimental. Women are banned from being treated by male doctors and are prohibited from working in the healthcare sector, limiting their access to medical care. The situation is further exacerbated by the Taliban's rollback of laws and policies aimed at eliminating violence against women, leaving them vulnerable to gender-based violence without adequate protection or recourse.

Other Restrictions

The Taliban have also imposed restrictions on women's participation in sports, leisure activities, and public life. They have excluded women from holding public office and banned them from certain sectors, such as the judiciary. Additionally, the Taliban's interpretation of Islamic law, which justifies these restrictions, contradicts mainstream interpretations of Islam and has been denounced by Islamic scholars and organizations worldwide.

The Taliban's relationship with al-Qaeda

The Taliban and al-Qaeda have a long history of cooperation, with al-Qaeda providing material and manpower assistance to the Taliban during the Afghan Civil War in the 1990s. In return, the Taliban provided hospitality to al-Qaeda. This relationship was a marriage of convenience, as both groups had radical, though not identical, ideologies.

The Taliban and al-Qaeda's relationship has endured for over 20 years, despite the crushing military campaign by the world's foremost military alliance and the realpolitik considerations that seemingly should have led the Taliban to break ties long ago. The Taliban has incurred tremendous costs for its alliance with al-Qaeda, including international isolation and the rupture of relations with Saudi Arabia, one of only three states to recognise the Taliban government.

Al-Qaeda has consistently pursued its agenda with a disregard for how doing so has affected the Taliban. The Taliban, on the other hand, is staunchly focused on Afghanistan and has never embraced al-Qaeda’s global jihadist ambitions. The Taliban does not rely on al-Qaeda, nor does it need al-Qaeda’s support for its insurgency. Al-Qaeda gains more from the relationship, not least of all a role in the insurgency in Afghanistan and an alternative to the Islamic State that it can promote to discredit its former ally.

The Taliban's current leader, Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada, has not publicly acknowledged al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri's pledge of allegiance. However, there is no indication that it was rejected. Al-Qaeda's regional affiliates are, in theory, loyal to the Taliban’s emir by virtue of their allegiance to al-Zawahiri. Therefore, al-Qaeda’s members around the globe are now, technically, bound by an oath to Akhundzada as well.

The Taliban's effect on the economy

The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan has had a detrimental effect on the country's economy.

The country's economy has floundered since the Taliban's return to power in 2021, with malnutrition soaring and hundreds of thousands of jobs lost. The UN Development Program (UNDP) estimates that the Taliban's restrictions on women's employment could cost up to 5% of Afghanistan's gross domestic product (GDP).

The Taliban's takeover has also wiped out gains in Afghans' standards of living that were made over the two decades after the US invasion. In an October 2022 report, the UNDP stated that almost all Afghans were living in poverty, with the economy shrinking by up to 30% since the Taliban's return to power. An estimated 700,000 jobs have been lost, and more than 90% of the population has been suffering from food insecurity.

The Taliban's harsh interpretation of Islamic law has also negatively impacted the economy. They have cracked down on women's rights, banned music and television, and restricted press freedoms. These actions have led to a decline in investment confidence and caused tens of thousands of highly skilled Afghans to flee the country.

The Taliban's inability to provide basic services has also contributed to the economic downturn. They have struggled to provide Afghans with adequate food supplies, and their failure to address issues such as drought and the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the economic crisis.

The international community's response to the Taliban's return to power has further worsened the economic situation. Sanctions and the termination of significant development aid have crippled the Afghan economy, with the country losing access to the international banking system and offshore foreign exchange reserves.

However, it is important to note that the Taliban's rule has had some positive economic impacts, particularly in rural areas. Their crackdown on corruption has helped improve governance and service delivery in some areas. Additionally, their ban on poppy cultivation has cut opium production by 80%, which could have potential economic and social benefits for the country.

Overall, the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan has had a largely negative effect on the country's economy, with Afghans facing malnutrition, unemployment, and food insecurity. The Taliban's harsh rule, combined with a lack of international support, has resulted in a decline in living standards and a struggling economy.

The Taliban's international legitimacy

Efforts to Gain International Recognition:

• The Taliban has expressed its expectation of international recognition as the new government of Afghanistan and has taken procedural steps towards this goal.
• They have nominated representatives to the United Nations and encouraged foreign embassies to return to Kabul.
• The Taliban has maintained diplomatic relations with neighbouring and regional states, including Russia, China, India, and Pakistan.
• They have also participated in multilateral summits and accepted foreign investment opportunities.

Conditions for Recognition:

• Key regional players, including Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, have outlined prerequisites for officially recognising the Taliban regime. These include establishing an inclusive government, recognising human rights, and preventing cross-border violence.
• The United States and other Western powers have also emphasised the need for the Taliban to uphold basic rights, particularly for women and girls, and to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terrorists.

Challenges and Criticisms:

• The Taliban has faced widespread criticism for its treatment of women, restricting their access to education and employment.
• There are concerns about the Taliban's relations with terrorist groups, particularly al-Qaeda, and the potential for Afghanistan to become a base for terrorist attacks.
• The Taliban has also been criticised for suppressing demonstrations, detaining journalists, and committing human rights violations.

Economic and Humanitarian Factors:

• The Taliban's efforts to gain international recognition are driven in part by their pressing economic needs and the desire to access frozen funds and receive international assistance.
• The deteriorating economic and humanitarian conditions in Afghanistan, including rising malnutrition and unemployment, have further complicated the group's pursuit of international legitimacy.

Future Prospects:

• The Taliban continues to struggle for international recognition due to its inability to address security and economic concerns.
• While some countries may be willing to engage with the Taliban, formal recognition is unlikely until the group can demonstrate progress on human rights, counter-terrorism, and inclusive governance.

The Taliban's treatment of ethnic minorities

Under their second regime, which began in 2021, the Taliban have continued to persecute minority groups. They have excluded women from all public roles and restricted girls' education. There have been reports of extra-judicial killings of Hazaras and Tajiks, with members of these minority groups being killed daily. The Taliban have also imposed harsh restrictions on the appearance and behaviour of Sikhs and Hindus, with many being forced to flee the country.

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