The Elusive Quest For Peaceful Power Transition In Afghanistan

Afghanistan has a history of violent transitions of power, with the Taliban's swift return to power in 2021 being the most recent example. However, it is important to note that the speed of their return, rather than the return itself, was the most surprising aspect. Many experts predicted that it would take the Taliban up to 18 months to regain control, with that time being filled with urban warfare and American-assisted air attacks. The swift transition may have saved many Afghan lives and prevented further destruction of infrastructure.

In 2014, Afghanistan experienced its first democratic transfer of power, with Hamid Karzai becoming the only Afghan leader to voluntarily surrender his office. Despite this, the country's political transitions have always been difficult, and the 2014 transfer was no exception. The absence of a dominant candidate led to passionate campaigns, and while the first round of voting was relatively peaceful, the second round became far more divisive, with ethnic Pashtuns and Uzbeks rallying around the Pashtun candidate Ashraf Ghani, and ethnic Tajiks and some powerful Hazara factions supporting Abdullah Abdullah. This led to a standoff between the two candidates, which was eventually resolved with Ghani becoming president and Abdullah taking on the role of chief executive officer.

The role of the US and the international community in Afghanistan's political transition

The US has played a significant role in Afghanistan's political transition, especially in the context of its withdrawal from the country and the subsequent Taliban takeover. The US has provided various forms of assistance and support to Afghanistan over the years, with a focus on promoting stability and countering terrorism.

Since 2011, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) has emphasised the importance of Afghanistan's political transition, particularly the presidential election, in determining the country's stability post-2014. The USIP has conducted research, facilitated discussions, and raised awareness about the need for a successful political transition. The US also played a role in the 2014 Afghan presidential election, which marked the country's first democratic transfer of power.

In 2012, the US and Afghanistan signed the Strategic Partnership Agreement to strengthen bilateral relations and support Afghanistan's development. However, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and the subsequent Taliban takeover significantly altered the dynamics. The US suspended operations at its embassy in Kabul and shifted to pragmatic engagement with Afghanistan.

Despite the change in circumstances, the US has continued to engage with the Taliban to ensure they abide by the commitments made in the Doha Agreement, including preventing terrorist groups from using Afghan soil and engaging in intra-Afghan negotiations. The US has also led international efforts to deliver humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, providing over $775 million as of July 2022. This assistance focuses on basic human needs and avoiding an economic collapse, with an emphasis on food security, health, and education.

Additionally, the US has supported programmes aimed at improving human rights, particularly for women, girls, and minority communities. It has also worked to boost financial sector liquidity and help Afghan banks retain access to the international financial system. The US engages with Taliban representatives to urge the formation of an inclusive government that reflects Afghanistan's diversity.

The US has not recognised the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan but continues to work with international partners to support the Afghan people during this challenging period.

Apart from the US, the international community has also played a crucial role in Afghanistan's political transition. The United Nations, non-governmental organisations, and other countries have collaborated to deliver humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan. Additionally, countries like Pakistan, Russia, China, and India have held talks with Taliban representatives, signalling a potential shift in diplomatic relations.

Overall, the US and the international community have played a critical role in Afghanistan's political transition, providing diplomatic, humanitarian, and financial support. However, the future of Afghanistan's political transition remains uncertain, with ongoing efforts to establish a stable and inclusive government.

The Taliban's return to power

The Taliban's swift offensive came as the United States withdrew its remaining troops from Afghanistan as outlined in a 2020 peace agreement. The deal included commitments from the Taliban to cut ties with terrorist groups and engage in national peace talks, which never took place.

The transition of power in Afghanistan has often been violent, and the Taliban's return was no exception. During their offensive, the Taliban committed various human rights violations, including intimidating journalists, restricting press freedoms, violently cracking down on demonstrations, and conducting extrajudicial killings.

Once in power, the Taliban reinstated their harsh interpretation of Islamic law, or Sharia law, despite initial pledges to respect the rights of women and religious and ethnic minorities. They banned most women from working, prohibited girls from attending secondary school, and restricted women's freedom of movement. The Taliban also revived their Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice, which enforces strict dictates on social behavior, including gender integration, dancing, music, and television.

The future for Afghans under Taliban rule remains uncertain and filled with hardship. While the end of the war is a relief for many, millions are struggling to survive due to the economic collapse and human rights abuses perpetrated by the Taliban.

The impact of violent transitions on Afghan civilians

Afghanistan has long been one of the world's poorest countries, and its people have been ravaged by four decades of war and violence. The country has been left impoverished, dependent on foreign aid, and desperate for peace. Families have been torn apart, and more than 100,000 civilians have been killed or injured in the last decade alone.

The Taliban's strict laws and repressive policies have had a detrimental effect on the lives of Afghan civilians, particularly women and girls. Women's lives were strictly controlled under the hard-line Taliban, with many not being allowed to work outside the home or appear in public without a male escort and an all-encompassing body covering. The Taliban's restrictions on women's rights and their disregard for human rights have led to a challenging situation for Afghan women, who fear a return to the Taliban's draconian rule.

Violence and attacks on civilians have surged, with the United Nations documenting a 38% increase in the six months after the start of peace talks in September 2020. Civilian casualties across Afghanistan have remained high, with the UN documenting a record high of 10,993 civilian casualties in 2018. The conflict has had a severe impact on the mental health of Afghans, with women and girls suffering from depression and, in some cases, resorting to suicide.

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has been exacerbated by an economy on the verge of collapse and international isolation. Sanctions and the termination of significant development aid have crippled the country's economy, and obtaining external assistance has been complicated by the West's reluctance to work with the Taliban government. Afghans are suffering from cascading and compounding humanitarian crises, with the United Nations declaring it the largest humanitarian crisis in the world.

In addition to violence and economic hardship, Afghan civilians also face food shortages due to climate change and the Russia-Ukraine war, which has caused food prices to soar. The lack of access to food has been further exacerbated by the Taliban's crackdown on opium production, which has deprived many communities of much-needed revenue.

The future of women's rights in Afghanistan

Since the Taliban took power in August 2021, women's rights have been severely restricted. The Taliban have issued decrees that prevent women and girls from exercising their basic rights to freedom of expression, liberty, work, and education. Women have been banned from working in NGO offices, and girls have been banned from secondary schools and tertiary education. Women are also not allowed to work for the UN as of April 2023. Women's protection centres are being attacked, and safe houses for women human rights defenders are at capacity.

The Taliban's cabinet and deputy ministers do not include any women, and the Ministry for Women's Affairs has been abolished. In some provinces, women are being told not to leave their homes without a male relative or go to work. The Taliban have also imposed a strict dress code, with women required to wear full veils when outside, and presenters on TV news programs must wear a full veil during broadcasts.

Women's rights activists report detentions, child marriages, forced marriages, and rapes. Women in Afghanistan experience some of the highest rates of violence globally, with 9 out of 10 Afghan women experiencing at least one form of intimate partner violence in their lifetime. The Taliban have also banned the sale of contraception in 2023, which could have fatal consequences for women, as Afghanistan has one of the highest rates of maternal mortality in the world.

Despite the Taliban's initial promises to respect women's rights within the framework of Sharia law, their actions have not inspired confidence. The situation for women and girls in the country is bleak, but women continue to fight for their rights and demand equality. Afghan women had the right to vote in 1919, before the United States, and the first school for girls was established in 1921. Throughout the decades, Afghan women's advocacy has been crucial to the country's progress in both peace and development.

The international community has a responsibility to support and promote the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan. This includes providing robust support to Afghan women, reaffirming commitments to women's rights, prioritizing women's rights in engagements with the Taliban, and increasing support for Afghan women to access employment, aid, and healthcare.

The Afghan government's reliance on foreign aid

Afghanistan has long been one of the world's poorest countries, and its economy has been heavily reliant on foreign aid. In 2018, the country received at least $8.6 billion in foreign grants, accounting for almost 80% of its $11 billion public expenditure program. This reliance on foreign aid has only increased in recent years, with the country's economy suffering from decades of war, weak governance, corruption, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2021, the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan led to the freezing of billions of dollars in Afghan central bank reserves held in the US, as well as the suspension of development funding from organisations such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Union. This aid freeze was intended to prevent money from flowing into the hands of the Taliban, but it has had devastating consequences for the Afghan people, pushing the economy to the brink of collapse.

The freezing of assets and the halt in foreign aid have severely impacted the ability of humanitarian aid organisations to operate within the country. The liquidity crisis has made it extremely challenging to run hospitals and pay staff, and there are concerns that, without sufficient aid, many Afghans will die unnecessarily.

The World Bank has warned that Afghanistan's long-term growth prospects rely on a significant shift away from reliance on international aid and consumption-driven growth, towards a more resilient, private sector-led economy. However, this will require substantial structural changes, and it is unclear when or if the necessary conditions will be met.

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