Afghanistan's Future: Surviving America's Exit

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending America's longest war, has sparked concerns about the future of the country and the potential impact on global security. The exit has been criticised as chaotic and poorly executed, with fears that it may result in a resurgence of terrorist groups and a rollback of human rights gains in Afghanistan. However, others argue that the decision to end the 'forever war' was necessary and that the US should focus on counterterrorism efforts and strengthening alliances. The Taliban's return to power and the ongoing evacuation efforts have raised questions about the effectiveness of US policy and the potential consequences for the region.

The return of the Taliban and the loss of gains in education, economic development and women's rights

The return of the Taliban to Afghanistan has resulted in the loss of gains in education, economic development, and women's rights.

Education

The Taliban's return to power has severely impacted girls' access to education. In March 2022, the Taliban banned girls from attending secondary school. This was a decision that came from the Taliban's ruler, the emir in Kandahar. Girls are still allowed to attend university, but if this ban continues, there will be no girls attending anything beyond elementary school once the girls who are in university graduate out.

Economic Development

The Taliban's return to power has also resulted in a collapse of the Afghan economy. The country lost access to the international banking system and offshore foreign exchange reserves as the central bank assets were frozen. This has led to a sharp decline in aggregate demand and widespread disruptions to public services. The proportion of households that did not have enough income to meet basic food needs more than doubled from 16% to 36% in this period.

Women's Rights

The Taliban's return to power has also led to a severe curtailment of women's rights. Women are barred from travelling more than 70 kilometres without a close male relative and are mandated to wear face coverings in public. They are not allowed to work in most sectors outside of health and education. They are banned from studying in secondary schools and universities. Women are severely restricted from public spaces in the country as they are not allowed in parks and gyms.

The US's longest war ending

The US's longest war, spanning two decades, came to an end in August 2021 with the withdrawal of the last of its troops from Afghanistan. The war, which began in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, resulted in colossal failures, unfulfilled promises, and a final evacuation that was chaotic and raised doubts about US credibility.

The closing chapter of America's longest war was marked by tragedy and uncertainty. The evacuation effort, aimed at rescuing US citizens and Afghan allies, was fraught with challenges and claimed the lives of over 180 Afghans and 13 US service members in a suicide bombing at Kabul airport. The speed of the Taliban's takeover caught the Biden administration off guard, forcing a frantic and disorderly exit.

The war's conclusion exposed the shortcomings of US policy and military strategy. Despite spending $83 billion on training and equipment, the Afghan military collapsed, and the Taliban swiftly recaptured the country. The US also failed to build an effective Afghan military capable of countering the insurgency.

The end of the war brought a mix of emotions and reactions. While 54% of Americans supported the decision to withdraw, there was criticism of how it was handled, with many viewing it as chaotic and poorly executed. The Biden administration faced scrutiny for leaving behind Americans and vulnerable Afghans who supported US efforts.

The war's legacy is complex. While some parts of Afghanistan experienced modernization and improvements, particularly for women and girls, the country remains poor and unstable, with a looming threat of a return to Taliban brutality. The US now faces the challenge of preventing Afghanistan from becoming a terrorist safe haven and addressing the ongoing refugee crisis.

As the US reflects on its longest war, there are calls for accountability and a need to learn from the mistakes made. The war's conclusion underscores the importance of focusing on current threats and adapting to a new era of global challenges.

The chaotic execution of the exit plan

The execution of the US exit plan from Afghanistan was marred by chaos and violence, with critics arguing that it was poorly planned and poorly executed. The speed with which the Taliban captured Kabul took the Biden administration by surprise, forcing a frantic and chaotic evacuation effort. Over the course of the 18-day US exit, more than 120,000 Americans and Afghan partners evacuated the country, but not without loss. At least 180 Afghans and 13 US troops lost their lives, the majority in a suicide bombing that took place on August 26 as troops guarded the Kabul airport.

The evacuation effort was further complicated by the need to protect US troops and civilians from attacks by the Islamic State group's Afghanistan affiliate. The closing hours of the evacuation were marked by extraordinary drama, with American troops facing the daunting task of getting final evacuees onto planes while also getting themselves and their equipment out. The dangers of the mission were tragically highlighted by the suicide bombing outside an airport gate.

The chaotic nature of the exit was evident in the scenes of continuing chaos and suffering at the airport, with thousands of desperate people rushing to the airport in an attempt to flee the country. The US withdrawal also left behind American citizens and Afghan allies, raising concerns about their safety and the potential for them to become kidnapping targets. The failure to evacuate all US citizens and allies brought harsh criticism of President Biden's evacuation strategy.

The US exit plan was intended to include the maintenance of a US diplomatic presence in Afghanistan, with the American Embassy in Kabul remaining open and protected by US troops. However, the speed of the Taliban's advance and the fall of Kabul forced the US to abandon its embassy and accelerate the evacuation effort. The Taliban's control of Afghanistan also created a refugee crisis, with many Afghans fleeing the country out of fear of persecution and a return to the brutality endured under previous Taliban rule.

The refugee crisis

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has resulted in a refugee crisis as Afghans flee their country. Since 2021, more than 1.6 million Afghans have fled, bringing the total number of Afghans in neighbouring countries to 8.2 million—one of the largest protracted refugee situations in the world. The majority of these refugees are hosted by Pakistan and Iran, with over 70% of those in need of support being women and children.

The crisis in Afghanistan has been decades in the making. Afghans have suffered more than 40 years of conflict, natural disasters, chronic poverty, food insecurity, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The Taliban's takeover of Kabul in August 2021 intensified instability and violence, causing further human suffering and displacement.

The impact of the conflict on women and children has been particularly devastating. The fundamental rights of women and girls are under threat, and many children are out of school. Malnutrition rates remain extremely high, with about 875,000 children suffering from severe acute malnutrition in 2023. Access to healthcare is limited, and the country faces acute food insecurity.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is committed to staying and delivering in Afghanistan. They are assisting the most vulnerable Afghans with emergency shelter, food, health, water, sanitation support, cash assistance, and psycho-social support. UNHCR also facilitates voluntary repatriation for Afghan refugees, supporting over 5.3 million refugees returning to Afghanistan since 2002.

The US has a long history of welcoming refugees, including those from Afghanistan. However, the Biden administration has faced criticism for its handling of the evacuation and resettlement of Afghans. There are concerns about the number of Afghans left behind and the adequacy of security screenings for those arriving in the US.

The threat of Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for terrorists

The United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001 to overthrow the Taliban and prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for terrorists. However, the Taliban regrouped across the border in Pakistan and began taking back territory. By August 2021, the Taliban had swept back into power.

The withdrawal of US and other troops has left the country without a government or political system, its population without protection, and an ingrained economic and humanitarian crisis. When combined with dire socioeconomic conditions and a gaping power vacuum, the recent Kabul airport attack created conditions that are ripe for insurgency.

There is no guarantee that Afghanistan won't revert to its status as a safe haven for terrorists aiming to harm the United States and its global partners. Washington must leverage its remaining influence to find ways to engage with Afghanistan to counter the emergence and strengthening of terrorist activities. US diplomatic efforts must also address the economic and humanitarian crises.

The Taliban are a predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group that returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021 after waging a twenty-year insurgency. The group was formed in the early 1990s by Afghan mujahideen, or Islamic guerrilla fighters, who had resisted the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

The Taliban imposed a harsh interpretation of Islamic law despite pledges to respect the rights of women and religious and ethnic minority communities. The Taliban have banned most girls from attending secondary school and prohibited all women from attending and teaching at universities and from working. The Taliban's takeover has also wiped out gains in Afghans' standards of living. In an October 2022 report, the UNDP said that almost all Afghans were living in poverty.

The Taliban's return to power has emboldened Tehrik-e-Taliban, a militant group sometimes referred to as the Pakistani Taliban. In late 2022, the group ended a ceasefire with the Pakistani government and launched attacks across the country. Pakistani officials have accused the Afghan Taliban of providing the militants with a safe haven in Afghanistan.

The United States completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, ending America's longest war. Hours ahead of President Joe Biden's deadline for shutting down the final airlift, Air Force transport planes carried the remaining contingent of troops from Kabul airport.

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