The Looming Threat: Assessing Afghanistan's Capability To Strike The U.S

The United States' invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 was a response to the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, D.C. The US-led coalition began attacks on Afghanistan with the goal of dismantling al-Qaeda, the perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks, and denying Islamist militants a base of operations by toppling the Taliban government. The Taliban had imposed its extremist version of Islam on the country, committing countless human rights abuses, particularly against women and girls. The invasion, dubbed Operation Enduring Freedom, marked the beginning of the US war on terror and resulted in the fall of the Taliban regime. However, despite the initial success, the war in Afghanistan would span two decades and become the longest war in US history.

During the invasion, the US and its allies faced a challenging humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, with millions of Afghans attempting to flee due to the continuous conflict. The invasion caused further displacement, with the United Nations estimating that about 5 million Afghans had been displaced by the war since 2012. The US-led coalition forces were able to overthrow the Taliban government and establish an interim administration led by Hamid Karzai. However, the Taliban leadership relocated to southern Afghanistan and across the border to Pakistan, from where they continued to wage an insurgency against the Western-backed government and international coalition troops.

The war in Afghanistan resulted in significant casualties on all sides, with thousands of civilian deaths and injuries over the years. Despite the efforts of the US and its allies, the Taliban remained a formidable force and continued to attack and capture territory. In 2020, the US and the Taliban signed a peace deal for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, but the Taliban quickly resumed attacks, and by 2021, they had seized control of several major cities, including Kabul. The speed of the Taliban's territorial gains and the collapse of the Afghan government and security forces surprised US officials and allies, leading to a rushed evacuation of US and allied personnel.

The US invasion of Afghanistan had far-reaching consequences and raised questions about its legality under international law. While the US and its allies argued that it was an act of self-defence, others claimed that there was no evidence of imminent terrorist attacks to justify the invasion. The invasion also had a significant impact on the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, with the country facing a dire economic and humanitarian crisis in the years following the US withdrawal.

The Taliban's refusal to hand over Osama bin Laden

The Taliban offered to try bin Laden in Afghanistan under Islamic law or in a third country that would not be under pressure from the US. However, the US rejected these offers, insisting that the Taliban turn over bin Laden and al-Qaeda members without any preconditions.

The Taliban's refusal to comply with US demands led to the US launching Operation Enduring Freedom on October 7, 2001, marking the beginning of the 20-year-long War in Afghanistan. The invasion of Afghanistan was intended to target bin Laden's al-Qaeda organization and the Taliban government that supported and protected them.

The US-led coalition began attacks on Afghanistan with an intense bombing campaign, and within two months, the Taliban had retreated from Kabul, the capital, and their leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, went into hiding. Despite the rapid collapse of the Taliban regime, bin Laden managed to escape to Pakistan with the help of the Taliban and continues to be at large, carrying out terrorist attacks around the world.

The 20-year-long War in Afghanistan

The US-led coalition included the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Australia, and the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance rebels. The invasion was dubbed Operation Enduring Freedom by the US military.

The conflict in Afghanistan spanned two decades and resulted in a staggering loss of life. More than 3,500 allied soldiers were killed, with over 20,000 Americans injured. Approximately 69,000 Afghan security forces were killed, along with roughly 51,000 civilians and 51,000 militants. The war also caused mass displacement, with the UN reporting that 5 million Afghans had been displaced since 2012.

The war in Afghanistan was fought across four phases. The first phase was brief, lasting just two months, and involved toppling the Taliban regime. The second phase, from 2002 to 2008, focused on defeating the Taliban and rebuilding core institutions of the Afghan state. The third phase, from 2008, saw a shift to classic counterinsurgency doctrine, with a temporary increase in US troop numbers. The fourth phase, from 2015, saw the Afghan armed forces take the lead in security duties, with US and NATO forces remaining in a supporting role.

The war ended in August 2021, with the Taliban retaking control of Afghanistan. The US and NATO forces completed their withdrawal from the country on August 30, 2021.

The US-led coalition's invasion of Afghanistan

The Taliban, a Sunni Islamic fundamentalist and predominantly Pashtun movement, had controlled most of Afghanistan since 1996. In the weeks prior to the invasion, both the United States and the U.N. Security Council had demanded that the Taliban turn over Osama bin Laden for prosecution. After the Taliban's counteroffers were deemed unsatisfactory, the invasion began with an aerial bombardment of Taliban and al-Qaeda installations in several cities. The coalition included other nations providing logistical support, such as France, Germany, Australia, and Canada, and later, troops from the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance rebels.

The invasion of Afghanistan was the first phase of what would become the 20-year-long War in Afghanistan. The conflict in Afghanistan would span two decades and become the longest war in U.S. history. The invasion was intended to target Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda organization, which was based in the country, as well as the extreme fundamentalist Taliban government that had ruled most of the country and supported and protected al-Qaeda.

The invasion consisted of American, British, Canadian, and Australian forces, with other countries providing logistical support. The coalition began with an aerial bombardment of Taliban and al-Qaeda installations, softening their defenses before the ground invasion. The ground invasion was led by the Northern Alliance, with the United States and other nations providing air and ground support. On November 12, a little over a month after the military action began, Taliban officials and their forces retreated from the capital, Kabul. By early December, Kandahar, the last Taliban stronghold, had fallen, and Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar went into hiding.

The fall of the Taliban regime is generally tied to this date when Kandahar fell, and Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar fled the city. However, al-Qaeda leaders continued to hide out in the mountainous Tora Bora region of Afghanistan, where they were engaged by anti-Taliban Afghan forces, backed by U.S. Special Forces troops. Al-Qaeda soon initiated a truce, which is now believed to have been a ploy to allow Osama bin Laden and other key members to escape into neighboring Pakistan.

The fall of the Afghan government

The US-led coalition's invasion of Afghanistan was swift. Within two months, the coalition, which included British, Canadian, and Australian forces, had captured Kabul and toppled the Taliban government. The Taliban's leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, went into hiding.

The Taliban's removal from power was followed by two decades of nation-building and military intervention, led by the US and supported by NATO allies. The goal was to create a democratic government in Afghanistan, with the capacity to prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for terrorists.

However, the Taliban did not disappear. They regrouped and, by 2002, had launched an insurgency against the US-led war effort. The US responded by increasing troops and conducting air strikes. In 2020, after years of direct negotiations, the US and the Taliban signed a peace deal, agreeing to a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.

Despite the agreement, the Taliban continued to attack Afghan security forces and civilians. In 2021, the Taliban went on a rapid offensive, capturing provincial capitals and border crossings. On 15 August 2021, over two weeks before the official US withdrawal deadline, Taliban fighters entered the Afghan capital, Kabul, and President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. The Afghan government collapsed, and the Taliban took control of the presidential palace.

The speed of the Taliban's advance and the collapse of the Afghan government surprised US officials and allies. The US had previously predicted that Kabul could hold out for at least three months. The fall of the Afghan government marked the end of a 20-year mission and the return of Taliban rule.

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan

The U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan in ousted the Taliban from power following their refusal to hand over terrorist leader Osama bin Laden in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The invasion, dubbed "Operation Enduring Freedom," marked the beginning of the United States' "war on terror." The Taliban leadership then relocated to southern Afghanistan and across the border to Pakistan, from where they waged an insurgency against the Western-backed government in Kabul.

In the years following the U.S. invasion, the Taliban regrouped and reconsolidated their strength, taking back territory and launching attacks. By 2021, the Taliban had swept back into power, taking advantage of the U.S. troop withdrawal as outlined in the 2020 peace agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban. The Taliban's swift offensive resulted in the collapse of the Western-backed Afghan government, with President Ashraf Ghani fleeing the country.

The Taliban's return to power has had significant implications for Afghanistan. The group has imposed restrictions on women's rights, banning most girls from attending secondary school and prohibiting women from working in various sectors. The economy has floundered, with malnutrition soaring and hundreds of thousands of jobs lost. The Taliban have also struggled to provide adequate food supplies and economic opportunities for Afghans.

Additionally, there are concerns about the Taliban's ties to terrorist organizations, particularly al-Qaeda. The Taliban provided a safe haven for al-Qaeda before the 2001 U.S. invasion, and experts worry that Afghanistan could once again become a safe haven for terrorists under Taliban rule. The Taliban's takeover has also led to a worsening humanitarian crisis in the country, with the United Nations launching the largest single-country aid appeal in its history to address the situation.

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