The Uncertain Future: Afghanistan Under Taliban Rule

The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 has led to a deterioration in the human rights situation in the country. The Taliban has imposed a strict interpretation of Islamic law, resulting in harsh restrictions on women's rights, freedom of expression, and religious freedom. The group has also been accused of committing human rights violations, including torture, arbitrary detention, and extrajudicial killings. The economic situation in Afghanistan has also worsened under the Taliban, with mass unemployment, a collapse of the housing market, and increased malnutrition rates. The Taliban's inability or unwillingness to break ties with terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) has raised concerns among the international community. The future of Afghanistan under the Taliban remains uncertain, with no clear timeline for a transition to a more permanent and inclusive government.

The Taliban's relationship with Al-Qaeda

The Taliban and Al-Qaeda have a long history together, dating back to the 1980s when the Taliban emerged in northern Pakistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. The Taliban's relationship with Al-Qaeda has been a source of concern for the international community, particularly the United States, due to Al-Qaeda's history of international terrorism.

The Taliban and Al-Qaeda have maintained close ties over the years, with Al-Qaeda providing financial support to the Taliban and the Taliban offering protection and a safe haven for Al-Qaeda. The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 has raised concerns that the country could once again become a safe haven for Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups.

The Taliban has made commitments to the United States and the international community to restrain jihadist groups, including Al-Qaeda, from operating in Afghanistan. However, there are doubts about the Taliban's willingness or ability to uphold these commitments. The Taliban's association with Al-Qaeda has continued despite the Taliban's pledge to the US to break ties with terrorist groups.

Al-Qaeda is believed to have a presence in Afghanistan, with estimates of 200 to 500 fighters across the country. The two groups have a history of collaboration and familial ties, and it is believed that the Taliban provides shelter, food, and financial support to Al-Qaeda militants.

The impact on women's rights

The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 has had a devastating impact on women's rights. The group has imposed strict restrictions on women's education, employment, and personal freedom, with the apparent aim of erasing women from public life.

Under Taliban rule, girls have been prohibited from attending secondary school, and women have been banned from teaching or studying at universities. Women have also been prevented from working, with bans on employment in the public sector and specific industries such as journalism and international NGOs. In some provinces, women have been banned from visiting public parks or restaurants unaccompanied. These restrictions have had a detrimental effect on women-owned businesses and female workers, with many women left with no option but to work from home.

The Taliban has also enforced a strict dress code, requiring women to wear the head-to-toe burqa and only appear in public with a male chaperone. Women's access to healthcare has been severely limited, as they are forbidden from being treated by male doctors.

The Taliban's interpretation of Islamic Sharia law has resulted in the denial of basic human rights for women and girls. They have been confined to their homes, with no freedom to leave the house unaccompanied, even for a walk. Women have been excluded from politics and forbidden from speaking publicly.

The Taliban's restrictions on women's rights have been enforced through violence and intimidation. Women who violate the Taliban's rules have been subjected to arbitrary arrest, detention, torture, and other ill-treatment. There have been reports of women suffering from depression and even suicide due to the oppressive restrictions.

The Taliban's policies have had a devastating impact on the lives and livelihoods of Afghan women, reversing the gains made in the previous two decades. The hard-fought progress towards equality, including the enactment of the Elimination of Violence Against Women (EVAW) law in 2009, has been steadily dismantled by the Taliban.

Despite international condemnation and calls for action, the situation for women in Afghanistan remains dire, with limited prospects for improvement in the near future.

The economy under Taliban rule

Afghanistan's economy is facing a crisis under the Taliban rule. The country is heavily dependent on foreign aid, with 75% of its public spending funded by grants from international institutions and countries such as the United States. However, with the Taliban in power, these donors have halted their financial support, leading to a freeze on billions of dollars in emergency reserves and other aid money. This has resulted in a shortage of US dollars in the country, causing a plunge in the value of the Afghani currency and driving up prices for goods and services.

The Taliban government has little access to Afghanistan's central bank reserves held abroad, with the US blocking access to around $9.5 billion in assets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also suspended payments of over $450 million as part of a coronavirus relief program, and the World Bank has frozen financial support. These factors have contributed to a dire economic situation, with long lines at banks as people try to withdraw money and a lack of cash flow in the system.

The Taliban has historically relied on criminal activities such as drug trafficking, extortion, and mineral exploitation to fund itself. They have also operated a shadow government, taxing controlled areas and using those funds to supply services and military operations. However, it is uncertain if these sources will be sufficient to sustain the economy, and the group faces challenges in accessing the global financial markets due to their designation as a terrorist organization.

The economic crisis in Afghanistan has raised concerns about a potential humanitarian disaster, with nearly half of the households in the country already living in poverty before the Taliban takeover. The lack of access to cash and the rising prices of goods are expected to severely impact the lives of Afghans, leading to a bleak future.

The Taliban's approach to free speech and political activity

The Taliban have a history of targeting critics and dissenters, with tactics including bombing media outlets and assassinating journalists. Since their return to power in 2021, this trend has continued. While senior Taliban officials have submitted to being questioned on television by journalists they once sought to kill, in practice, the group is silencing critics and suppressing free speech.

Afghans who express critical views of the Taliban have been subjected to intimidation, fear, and violence. The case of Naveed Jan, a civil society activist who was hauled away by the Taliban and later found dead, illustrates the risks of criticising the new order in Afghanistan. Jan had posted modestly critical comments about the Taliban on social media, and his death sent a chilling message to other potential dissenters.

The Taliban have also restricted press freedoms, with media regulations banning reports "contrary to Islam," that "insult national figures," or that could have a "negative impact on the public's attitude." These broad and vague provisions effectively prohibit any critical reporting about the Taliban. In addition, female journalists are now required to wear head coverings on television, and female actors have been banned from appearing in dramas.

The Taliban have also violently cracked down on demonstrations and protests, particularly those led by women. In some cases, they have fired live ammunition into the air, arrested demonstrators, and beaten them. In other instances, protesters have been forcibly disappeared or even summarily executed.

The Taliban's relationship with neighbouring countries

Pakistan

The Taliban's relationship with Pakistan has been particularly tense. Pakistan was one of only three countries, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, to recognise the Taliban's government during their first stint in power from 1996 to 2001. Pakistan was also the last country to break diplomatic ties with the Taliban.

Pakistan has repeatedly denied that it was the architect of the Taliban enterprise, but there is little doubt that many Afghans who initially joined the movement were educated in madrassas (religious schools) in Pakistan.

Pakistan was also accused of providing financial and logistical support to the Taliban during the U.S. war. However, Islamabad denies this.

The Taliban's return to power has emboldened Tehrik-e-Taliban, a militant group sometimes referred to as the Pakistani Taliban. In late 2022, the group ended a ceasefire with the Pakistani government and launched attacks across the country. Pakistani officials have accused the Afghan Taliban of providing the militants with a safe haven in Afghanistan.

Iran

The Taliban's relationship with Iran has also been tense. Iran accused Pakistan of sending its air force to bomb Mazar-i-Sharif in support of Taliban forces and directly accused Pakistani troops for "war crimes at Bamiyan".

In 2010, several high-level Iranian officials openly voiced for a failed Afghanistan. Ties between Afghanistan and Iran became strained in recent years due to Iran's toughened immigration policy, hastening the repatriation of many Afghan asylum seekers.

China

China has been thrust into an unwelcome role of addressing complex political dynamics between the Taliban and Pakistan as well as trying to mitigate unrest within Afghanistan.

India

India unofficially supported the Northern Alliance minority groups against the Pakistani-backed Taliban during the course of the hijack of Indian Airlines Flight 814 in 1999.

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan continued its policy of boosting relations with Afghanistan in terms of trade, socio-cultural and educational exchanges in 2016.

Frequently asked questions