America's Afghan Conundrum: To Leave Or Not To Leave?

The United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending its two-decade-long military presence, was completed on August 30, 2021. The decision to pull out was made by President Joe Biden, following through on a deal negotiated by his predecessor, Donald Trump, with the Taliban in February 2020. The deal, which excluded the Afghan government, set the terms for a U.S. withdrawal and included the release of 5,000 imprisoned Taliban soldiers. The U.S. exit resulted in the Taliban regaining control of the country, creating a refugee crisis, and raising fears of Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for terrorists.

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan

The Taliban, a militant group that previously ran the country in the late 1990s, seized power in Afghanistan two weeks before the US was set to complete its troop withdrawal. The insurgents stormed across the country, capturing all major cities in a matter of days, as Afghan security forces trained and equipped by the US and its allies melted away. The Western-backed government that had run the country for 20 years collapsed, and Afghans, fearing for the future, raced to the airport, one of the last routes out of the country.

The Taliban's takeover was precipitated by the US-Taliban deal, also known as the Doha Agreement, signed in February 2020 by the Trump administration and the Taliban. The deal stipulated fighting restrictions for both parties and provided for the withdrawal of all NATO forces from Afghanistan in return for the Taliban's counter-terrorism commitments. The deal triggered the collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) as the US reduced the number of air attacks on the Taliban, to the detriment of the ANSF.

The Taliban's swift offensive came as the US withdrew its remaining troops from Afghanistan as outlined in the 2020 peace agreement with the group. In April 2021, US President Joe Biden announced that US military forces would leave Afghanistan by September 2021. As the final deadline drew close, the Taliban began a lightning offensive, overrunning city after city.

The Taliban's return to power has also raised concerns among international observers about the group's support for terrorist organizations, particularly al-Qaeda, and the potential for Afghanistan to become a safe haven for terrorists capable of launching attacks against the US and its allies.

The Biden administration's handling of the situation

Biden's decision was driven by the belief that the U.S. had achieved its primary objective of degrading the terrorist threat against the country and that perpetuating the military engagement in Afghanistan would not alter the basic political and military dynamics in the country. He argued that the war had become a strategic liability and a futile investment, and that resources would be better spent on other strategic priorities.

However, the withdrawal was executed in a chaotic manner, with the Taliban seizing control of Kabul on August 15, 2021, and the Afghan government collapsing. This led to a rushed evacuation effort, with thousands of U.S. troops deployed to Kabul's airport to assist. The process was marred by a suicide bombing that killed 13 U.S. service members and nearly 200 Afghan civilians.

The Biden administration has been criticized for its handling of the evacuation, with reports of Americans and Afghan allies being left behind. There have also been concerns about proper vetting of Afghan evacuees, with some individuals posing potential security risks. Additionally, the administration has been accused of failing to adequately prepare for the evacuation and not acting on warnings from military advisors.

In the aftermath of the withdrawal, the Biden administration has defended its decision, arguing that the threat of terrorism from Afghanistan is smaller than from other regions. They have also emphasized the successful elimination of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a drone strike as proof of their counterterrorism capabilities. However, critics argue that the withdrawal has emboldened the Taliban and resulted in a rollback of women's rights and civil liberties in Afghanistan.

The administration's report on the withdrawal, released in April 2023, has been criticized as defensive and disingenuous, shifting blame to the previous administration while failing to take accountability for the mistakes made. The report acknowledges logistical challenges but does not address broader questions about the two-decade-long war in Afghanistan and why America's efforts to build up the Afghan army and government ultimately failed.

Overall, the Biden administration's handling of the situation in Afghanistan has been characterized by a determination to end America's longest war, even in the face of significant pushback and warnings. The chaotic exit and its aftermath have had lasting impacts on the administration's approach to foreign policy, and it continues to be a contentious issue both domestically and internationally.

The US-Taliban deal

The agreement was the result of more than a year of negotiations and addressed four key issues: reducing violence, withdrawing foreign troops, starting intra-Afghan negotiations, and preventing Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terrorists. The deal included a temporary reduction in violence and a commitment from the Taliban to prevent terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda, from using Afghan soil to threaten the security of the United States and its allies.

As part of the deal, the United States agreed to an initial reduction of its forces in Afghanistan from 13,000 to 8,600 troops within 135 days, followed by a complete withdrawal within 14 months (by May 1, 2021) if the Taliban upheld its commitments. The intra-Afghan negotiations were to include the Taliban and the Afghan government working towards a power-sharing settlement.

The deal was not without its challenges and critics. The Afghan government, which was not a party to the agreement, objected to the provision requiring the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners. There were also concerns about the Taliban's commitment to reducing violence and upholding its counter-terrorism pledges. Despite these challenges, the deal represented a significant step towards ending the long-running war in Afghanistan and provided a framework for further negotiations and the eventual withdrawal of U.S. troops.

The Afghan refugee crisis

The United States' War in Afghanistan, which lasted from 2001 to 2021, has contributed significantly to the displacement of Afghans. The war led to both internal and external displacement, with many Afghans fleeing to Pakistan and Iran, which currently host the majority of Afghan refugees globally. Other major host countries include India, Canada, and European countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom.

The events leading up to the Taliban's takeover of Kabul in August 2021 further exacerbated the refugee crisis. As of 2023, it is estimated that 8.2 million Afghans have been forced to leave their homes and seek refuge in neighbouring countries, and 3.2 million Afghans are internally displaced within their own country. The impact of the conflict and instability has been particularly devastating for women and children, who make up a significant portion of the displaced population.

The prolonged nature of the Afghan refugee crisis has prompted intensified efforts by the international community to support Afghan refugees and their host communities. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and other organizations have been providing humanitarian aid, such as emergency shelter, food, health care, and education support, to displaced Afghans and their host communities. Efforts have also been made to facilitate the voluntary return and sustainable reintegration of Afghan refugees.

However, the future remains uncertain for many Afghan refugees, as they continue to face challenges such as food insecurity, poverty, and a lack of access to basic health care and education. The political and economic situation in Afghanistan remains unstable, and there are concerns that the country could descend into a civil war, leading to further displacement and suffering.

The future of Afghanistan's political and human rights

The Taliban has imposed and enforced rules and policies that comprehensively bar women and girls from exercising their fundamental rights, including freedom of assembly, movement, work, and education. These rules also undermine other rights, such as the rights to life, livelihood, and access to health care, food, and water. The Taliban has also targeted ethnic and religious minorities, with people from the Hazara, Uzbek, Turkmen, and Tajik ethnic groups facing growing marginalization and forced evictions from their homes and land.

The Taliban's crackdown on local media and freedom of speech has resulted in the closure of hundreds of media outlets, and most female media workers across Afghanistan have lost their jobs. The Taliban has also carried out arbitrary detentions, torture, and summary executions of former security officers and perceived enemies, including security personnel in the former government or alleged members or supporters of the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP).

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has deepened, with millions facing acute malnutrition and food insecurity. The loss of most foreign assistance, international isolation, financial sanctions, and consecutive years of drought have exacerbated the crisis. The Taliban's restrictions on women's rights and refusal to form an inclusive government have influenced donors' decisions to cut aid, leading to an alarming funding shortfall.

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