Afghanistan's Last Stand: Can They Still Qualify?

Afghanistan's chances of qualifying for the World Cup semi-finals were dealt a blow after a devastating loss to Australia. However, all is not lost for the Afghan side, and they still have a chance to make it to the top four of the World Cup 2023.

Afghanistan's remaining path to the semi-finals is dependent on two key factors. Firstly, they must beat South Africa in their last match of the round, preferably by a large margin, to improve their net run rate (NRR). Secondly, they must hope that both New Zealand and Pakistan lose their final matches against Sri Lanka and England, respectively.

If Afghanistan wins and either of New Zealand or Pakistan lose, a three-way tie will occur, with NRR being the deciding factor. If all three teams win or lose their respective matches, the fourth semi-finalist spot will again be determined by NRR.

While it is a challenging road ahead, Afghanistan's dream of reaching the World Cup semi-finals remains alive, and they will be keenly watching the results of the upcoming matches to determine their fate.

Afghanistan must beat South Africa

Afghanistan's chances of qualifying for the World Cup semi-finals hang in the balance. They need to beat South Africa and improve their net run rate to keep their hopes alive.

Afghanistan's final league game is against South Africa in Ahmedabad on November 10, 2023. A win will be crucial for Afghanistan, but it may not be enough. Their net run rate is lower than that of Pakistan and New Zealand, so they will need to defeat South Africa by a large margin. Additionally, they will need both New Zealand and Pakistan to lose their upcoming matches.

Afghanistan has had a successful World Cup campaign, beating three former champions—England, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan—as well as the Netherlands. Their top five batters have scored over 250 runs each in the tournament. Their bowling attack has also been impressive, with Rashid Khan leading the way. However, they face a challenging task against South Africa, who have already secured a semi-final spot and will be looking to bounce back from a heavy defeat against India.

The match between Afghanistan and South Africa will be a crucial contest, with Afghanistan needing a big win to keep their semi-final dreams alive.

By a large margin

Afghanistan's chances of qualifying for the World Cup semi-finals by a large margin are slim. However, they can still qualify if they win their remaining matches and if results from other games go in their favour.

Firstly, Afghanistan needs to win their last league match against South Africa by a large margin. This is a challenging task, as they would need to beat South Africa by more than 438 runs to book a place in the semi-finals.

Secondly, Afghanistan needs both New Zealand and Pakistan to lose their remaining matches. New Zealand will play Sri Lanka, and Pakistan will play England. If either of these teams wins their respective matches, Afghanistan will be knocked out.

Therefore, Afghanistan's best chance of qualifying for the World Cup semi-finals is to win their remaining match against South Africa by a large margin and hope that both New Zealand and Pakistan lose their upcoming matches.

New Zealand and Pakistan must lose

Afghanistan's chances of qualifying for the World Cup semi-finals hang in the balance. They need to beat South Africa in their next fixture by a huge margin and hope that New Zealand and Pakistan lose their last group-stage games.

New Zealand and Pakistan are both on eight points, with New Zealand occupying fourth place in the points table and Pakistan in fifth. New Zealand has a superior net run rate (NRR) of +0.398 compared to Pakistan's NRR of +0.036.

If New Zealand wins their remaining match against Sri Lanka, they will finish with 10 points and a superior NRR, making it difficult for Afghanistan to qualify. Therefore, Afghanistan needs New Zealand to lose this match and finish with eight points, hoping that their NRR remains lower than Afghanistan's.

Similarly, if Pakistan wins their remaining match against England, they will also finish with 10 points. With a better NRR than Afghanistan, this would also make it challenging for Afghanistan to qualify. Hence, Afghanistan needs Pakistan to lose this match and remain at eight points, with a lower NRR than Afghanistan.

In summary, for Afghanistan to qualify for the World Cup semi-finals, they need to beat South Africa by a large margin and hope that both New Zealand and Pakistan lose their upcoming matches. Additionally, Afghanistan must also finish with a higher NRR than New Zealand and Pakistan to secure a semi-final spot.

Run rate could be decisive

Afghanistan's run rate could be a decisive factor in their qualification for the World Cup 2023 semi-finals.

At the time of their match against Australia, Afghanistan were in sixth place and needed to win both of their remaining games to secure a semi-final spot. However, their loss to Australia meant that a win against South Africa in their last match may not be enough to secure qualification.

Afghanistan's run rate is lower than that of Pakistan and New Zealand. Therefore, to secure a semi-final spot, they need to not only defeat South Africa but do so by a significant margin. Additionally, they need to hope that both New Zealand and Pakistan lose their upcoming matches. If Afghanistan, New Zealand, and Pakistan all win their remaining matches, a three-way tie will occur, and only one team will progress to the semi-finals, with the Net Run Rate being the deciding factor.

If Afghanistan loses to South Africa and either New Zealand or Pakistan wins their final match, Afghanistan will be knocked out. Even if all three teams lose, Afghanistan's progression will depend on their Net Run Rate, which is currently worse than that of Pakistan and New Zealand.

Afghanistan's chances are slim

Afghanistan's chances of qualifying for the World Cup semi-finals are slim, despite being in pole position to reach the knockouts as of November 5, 2023. Their fate is not entirely in their hands, as they must rely on other teams losing their matches.

Firstly, Afghanistan must beat South Africa in their final match by a significant margin. This alone may not be enough, as their run rate is lower than that of Pakistan and New Zealand. Therefore, they must also hope that both Pakistan and New Zealand lose their remaining matches. If all three teams win, Afghanistan's progression will depend on net run rate (NRR), which is currently worse than that of their competitors.

Even if Afghanistan beats South Africa, a Pakistan or New Zealand victory will knock them out of the tournament. If all three teams lose, Afghanistan's progression will still depend on NRR, which is currently against them.

Therefore, Afghanistan's chances of qualifying for the semi-finals are slim, and they will need a combination of a significant victory and favourable results from other matches to go through.

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