The Unlikely Underdogs: Afghanistan's Cricket Team Takes On New Zealand

Afghanistan and New Zealand have faced off in cricket matches before, but never in a T20I match. In the 2015 and 2019 ICC Cricket World Cup, New Zealand beat Afghanistan by 6 and 7 wickets, respectively. However, Afghanistan has a better record of wins in Abu Dhabi, winning nine and losing three out of their 12 T20Is there, while New Zealand has lost their only T20I at the venue. In the 2021 T20 World Cup, Afghanistan and New Zealand were both in Group 2, and India's chances of making it to the semi-finals depended on Afghanistan beating New Zealand.

Afghanistan's win probability in the 2021 T20 World Cup

After losing to India by 66 runs, Afghanistan had to beat New Zealand to keep their semi-final hopes alive. However, they lost to New Zealand by 8 wickets, which knocked them out of the tournament.

Before the match against New Zealand, Afghanistan had a net run rate (NRR) of 3.097, which was the best in their group. They needed a big win over New Zealand to get their NRR back ahead of India and then needed India to either lose or manage only a close win against Namibia for Afghanistan to reach the knockouts.

New Zealand, on the other hand, needed a win to secure their spot in the semi-finals. They had a better NRR than Afghanistan and were on an unbeaten streak of three matches in the tournament at the time. They were also considered favourites to reach the final before the tournament began.

In the match, Afghanistan chose to bat first and set a target of 125 runs for New Zealand to win. Despite a slow start, Najibullah Zadran's impressive 73-run knock took Afghanistan to a respectable total. New Zealand comfortably chased down the target, winning by 8 wickets with 11 balls to spare.

With this result, Afghanistan was knocked out of the tournament, while New Zealand qualified for the semi-finals.

The impact of a win on Afghanistan's semi-final hopes

Afghanistan's win over New Zealand would have a significant impact on their semi-final hopes. A win would mean Afghanistan would be in a strong position to qualify for the semi-finals, but it would not guarantee their spot. Their qualification would depend on the results of other teams in their group, particularly India and New Zealand.

If Afghanistan beat New Zealand, they will have the same number of points as India and New Zealand, assuming that India wins their remaining matches against Namibia and Scotland. In this scenario, the team with the best net run rate (NRR) will advance to the semi-finals. Afghanistan's heavy defeat to India earlier in the tournament has negatively impacted their NRR, so they will need to win against New Zealand by a significant margin to improve their NRR and increase their chances of qualification.

Additionally, Afghanistan's experience playing in Abu Dhabi and their win record at the venue may give them an advantage. While New Zealand is considered a stronger team on paper, Afghanistan's familiarity with the conditions could be a crucial factor in their favour.

Therefore, a win for Afghanistan against New Zealand would enhance their semi-final hopes, but it would not secure their qualification. They would still need to rely on other results and hope that their NRR is sufficient to advance to the semi-finals.

India's hopes rest on Afghanistan

India's hopes of reaching the semi-finals of the ICC Men's T20 World Cup rested on Afghanistan beating New Zealand in their final group game. India's fate was in the hands of Afghanistan, with the result of their match against New Zealand determining whether India could qualify for the knockout stages.

India had suffered heavy defeats to Pakistan and New Zealand in their first two matches, leaving them on the brink of elimination. However, a big win over Afghanistan kept their hopes alive. For India to qualify, they needed to win their remaining two matches against Namibia and Scotland by large margins, and for Afghanistan to beat New Zealand.

Even if Afghanistan won, India's fate would still be decided by net run rate (NRR). A win for New Zealand would see them qualify, but a loss could result in a three-way tie with Afghanistan and India, with NRR deciding which team progressed.

Indian off-spinner Ravichandran Ashwin offered his support to Afghanistan ahead of the match, saying: "It's a funny game, and Afghanistan have played good cricket. A lot of our hopes rest with them as well. All the very best to them."

New Zealand's previous wins against Afghanistan

New Zealand and Afghanistan have played a total of three One Day International (ODI) matches against each other, with New Zealand winning all three. Here is a summary of each of New Zealand's wins:

ICC Cricket World Cup 2015, Napier: New Zealand won by 6 wickets

In their first-ever encounter at the World Cup level, Afghanistan, opting to bat first, quickly found themselves in trouble at 59 for 6. Half-century knocks from Samiullah Shenwari and Najibullah Zadran ensured that Afghanistan reached a respectable total of 186. However, New Zealand comfortably chased down the target in the 37th over, with Brendon McCullum (42), Martin Guptill (57), and Kane Williamson (33) leading the way.

ICC Cricket World Cup 2019, Taunton: New Zealand won by 7 wickets

In their second meeting, Afghanistan batted first and posted a total of 172, with Hashmatullah Shahidi top-scoring with 59. In response, New Zealand comfortably chased down the target, losing only three wickets in the process. James Neesham was the star with the ball, taking 5/31.

ICC Cricket World Cup 2023, Chennai: New Zealand won by 149 runs

In their most recent meeting, New Zealand batted first and posted a formidable total of 288, thanks to half-centuries from Will Young, Tom Latham, and Glenn Phillips. Afghanistan could only manage 139 in response, with Rahmat Shah's knock of 36 being the only notable contribution.

Afghanistan's experience playing in Abu Dhabi

In the 2021 ICC Men's T20 World Cup, Afghanistan faced India in Abu Dhabi and lost by 66 runs. Despite the loss, Afghanistan's net run rate improved, and they remained in the hunt for a semi-finals spot. This match demonstrated Afghanistan's resilience and their ability to bounce back from setbacks.

In the same year, Afghanistan played against Namibia in Abu Dhabi during the T20 World Cup. This was the first-ever T20I meeting between the two teams, and Afghanistan emerged victorious. Led by Rashid Khan, the fastest player to 100 T20I wickets, Afghanistan's spin attack proved too strong for Namibia. This win showcased Afghanistan's strength and their ability to adapt to different opponents.

The Afghanistan cricket team has also faced Pakistan in Abu Dhabi during the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 tournament. Unfortunately, they lost this match by 8 wickets. However, it is worth noting that Afghanistan has had more success than losses in Abu Dhabi.

In the 2021 ICC Men's T20 World Cup, Afghanistan had a strong showing against New Zealand in Abu Dhabi. Although the two teams had never played a T20I against each other before, Afghanistan's experience in Abu Dhabi gave them an advantage. They had won nine and lost three out of their twelve T20Is in the city. This proved crucial as Afghanistan went on to beat New Zealand in a thrilling encounter.

The Afghanistan cricket team has also had the opportunity to play in Abu Dhabi during their bilateral series against Ireland in 2019. They won this series 3-0, showcasing their dominance in the T20I format.

Overall, Afghanistan's experience playing in Abu Dhabi has been positive. They have a winning record in the city and have shown their ability to adapt to different opponents and conditions. Their performances in Abu Dhabi have contributed to their success in international cricket and their rise in the world rankings.

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