Protests In Belarus: Ongoing Resistance Or Fading Momentum?

Protests in Belarus have been ongoing since 2020, sparked by rigged presidential elections and escalated by unprecedented police brutality. The demonstrations are the largest anti-government protests in the country's history, with hundreds of thousands of people taking to the streets under the national Belarusian white-red-white flag. The protests have been met with violent persecution by the authorities, with reports of torture, sexual abuse, and rape. Despite the crackdown, the protests have remained mostly peaceful, with demonstrators carrying flowers and singing folk songs. The main opposition leaders are either in jail or have fled the country, and the protests are now led by various groups such as students, workers, doctors, pensioners, and people with disabilities. The protests have also gained international attention, with Western governments condemning the election abuses and the violent crackdown.

Police brutality and human rights violations

The 2020–2021 Belarusian protests were a series of mass demonstrations against the Belarusian government and President Alexander Lukashenko. The protests, which were catalysed by the 2020 presidential election, constituted the largest anti-government movement in the history of Belarus.

The protests were met with violent persecution by the authorities. Police in helmets and body armour threw women holding flowers and balloons into police vans, and tear-gassed elderly people on a pensioners' march. Men in balaclavas chased musicians for singing songs from popular cartoons in courtyards. Officers fired stun grenades and started hitting people with batons to disperse the crowd.

In one instance, a 31-year-old worker in the IT industry, Alesya, described how security forces "attacked us again and again. It was awful. They ferociously beat people, twisted their arms and took them away". She was saved by a stranger who hid her and several others in his house. "It felt like World War Two, when people tried to hide Jews from the Nazis. It was terrifying, we were shocked," she said.

Diana Pchelinkova, an 18-year-old student from Minsk, described how she fled from the police into an apartment block, hoping to hide in someone's flat. "I was the last one," she said. "I fell at the entrance. They hit my back with batons. We tried to shut the door but they pushed through." Officers stormed in and started grabbing men in the flat. They lashed out with batons at those who resisted. Women screamed and raised their hands, begging the police not to take them.

On 12 September 2020, a 21-year-old student from Minsk was scrolling on his phone when masked officers in green uniform detained him, breaking his nose and throwing him into a minivan with no number plates. Five officers in the vehicle beat him, demanded the password for his phone, and threatened to rape him with a truncheon while pulling his shorts down.

The next day, another young man, Evgeny, was detained during a peaceful protest in Minsk. Riot police took him and other detainees to Frunzensky precinct. Evgeny heard the police shout abuse and beat the last person inside the van. An officer asked Evgeny whether he wanted to get back in the vehicle for a similar “conversation”. Evgeny said he had recently undergone surgery, and the officer punched him on the stitched incision. The precinct staff had to call an ambulance for Evgeny.

These are just a few of the many alleged beatings and instances of ill-treatment by police. In addition, journalists and human rights defenders have been harassed and detained while covering rallies.

The United Nations Human Rights Office cited more than 450 documented cases of torture and ill-treatment of detainees, as well as reports of sexual abuse and rape. At the end of 2020, the Viasna Human Rights Centre documented 1,000 testimonies of torture victims.

The Human Rights Foundation (HRF) identified fifteen persons from the Belarusian state apparatus who were responsible for the arbitrary detention, beating, and torture of thousands of peaceful protesters.

The Belarusian authorities have denied allegations of abuse and torture. However, Alexander Lukashenko himself has acknowledged the beatings of detainees.

International sanctions

EU Sanctions

The EU has imposed a number of restrictive measures against Belarus in response to the ongoing political situation in the country, as well as its involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The EU has not recognised the results of the 2020 Belarus elections, deeming them "neither free nor fair".

The EU's sanctions target a total of 233 individuals and 37 entities, including:

• President Aleksandr Lukashenko
• Viktor Lukashenko, National Security Advisor and son of President Lukashenko
• Senior officials of the Ministry of the Interior and its troops
• The Chair of the Council of the Republic of the National Assembly of Belarus
• The Prosecutor General
• The Chairman of the national state television and radio company

The sanctions were first introduced in 2004 in response to the disappearance of four people, including two opposition politicians, a businessman, and a journalist. Further measures were adopted in 2020 in response to the unacceptable violence against peaceful protesters, intimidation, arbitrary arrests, and detentions following the August 2020 presidential elections.

The EU's sanctions include:

• Individual and economic sanctions targeting 22 people
• A SWIFT ban for five Belarusian banks
• A prohibition on transactions with the Central Bank of Belarus
• Limits on financial inflows from Belarus to the EU
• A prohibition on the provision of euro-denominated banknotes to Belarus
• An arms embargo
• A ban on the export of goods for internal repression

The EU has also imposed sanctions on Belarus in relation to its involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, including a ban on the provision of insurance and reinsurance to Belarus.

UK and Canada Sanctions

The UK and Canada imposed personal sanctions on members of the Lukashenko regime in September 2020, including travel bans and asset freezes. Eight individuals were affected by the UK sanctions, while 11 were affected by the Canadian sanctions.

US Sanctions

The US has imposed various sanctions on Belarus since 2006, with additional measures being introduced in August 2021 and throughout 2022-2024. The US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has compiled a list of frequently asked questions about its sanctions programs and related policies. The US has also targeted Belarusian revenue generators that support the Lukashenko regime, human rights abuses, and Russia's war machine.

The role of the diaspora

The role of the Belarusian diaspora has been significant in the ongoing protests against the authoritarian regime of President Alexander Lukashenko. The diaspora refers to emigrants from Belarus and their descendants, with an estimated population of 1.5-3.5 million people worldwide. Here are some key aspects of the diaspora's role:

• Political Activism: Until 2020, the Belarusian diaspora was relatively inactive, but the fraudulent presidential election that year sparked a wave of protests both within Belarus and among the diaspora communities. Young Belarusians abroad have formed solidarity groups in various countries, including Germany, France, Poland, Lithuania, and the United States, to draw international attention to the situation in Belarus and demand free and fair elections.
• Information Dissemination: During the internet shutdowns in Belarus after the elections, the diaspora played a crucial role in providing information to their compatriots inside the country. Telegram channels, such as NEXTA, with over 2 million subscribers, became a primary tool for coordinating protests and sharing real-time updates.
• Financial Support: The diaspora has raised significant funds to support those affected by the protests and political repression. They have raised over 2 million euros in private donations to help the injured and the victims of repression. Additionally, they have stepped in to fill the gap left by the government's disabling of Belarusian crowdfunding platforms.
• Grassroots Initiatives: Grassroots initiatives led by the diaspora have emerged to advocate for the interests of Belarusians abroad and promote their freedom and safety. They engage with different stakeholders and policymakers to raise awareness and seek support for their compatriots.
• Election Monitoring: The diaspora groups actively tracked and exposed falsification attempts at polling stations outside Belarus, mirroring the efforts of civil society within the country. They organized exit polls and worked to become election observers to ensure a fair electoral process.
• Solidarity Actions: The diaspora has regularly organized solidarity marches, artistic performances, and other symbolic acts of resistance to show their support for the protest movement in Belarus. They have also spread truthful information about the country's developments to counter the official propaganda.
• Support for Political Opposition: The diaspora has provided strong support for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the main opponent of Lukashenko, who likely won the election. Their activities legitimize her position and reinforce the democratic aspirations of the protest movement.
• Assistance for Victims: In addition to financial support, the diaspora has facilitated treatment and rehabilitation for victims of repression in clinics abroad, ensuring they receive the necessary medical care.

The impact on the IT industry

The IT industry in Belarus has been heavily impacted by the ongoing protests against President Alexander Lukashenko. The country's IT sector, which has traditionally stayed out of politics, has openly supported the opposition and called for an end to the violence and new elections. This marks a significant shift in the previously neutral relationship between the Lukashenko regime and the IT industry.

In the wake of the disputed August 2020 election, hundreds of CEOs of IT companies based in Belarus threatened to move their businesses out of the country. This included CEOs who were previously known to be loyal to the regime, such as Arkady Dobkin of EPAM and Viktor Prokopenya of Viaden Media. Some companies have already started relocating their employees and operations outside of Belarus, primarily to Ukraine and Poland, due to internet shutdowns and safety concerns. For example, software developer SoftSwiss transferred more than 100 employees to Ukraine in August 2020 and plans to permanently move out of Belarus by the end of 2021. Global game developer Gismart, headquartered in the UK, also began relocating its Belarus-based employees to other countries due to the unrest.

The IT industry in Belarus is a major source of pride for the country and has been one of the few sectors experiencing significant growth in recent years. It accounts for up to 6.1% of the country's GDP, with IT service exports increasing by almost 150% between 2017 and 2019. The success of the industry is often attributed to the Hi-Tech Park (PVT), which provides financial support for IT firms.

However, the ongoing political crisis and the government's response to the protests have put the future of the IT sector in jeopardy. Many companies are now considering relocation, and foreign investors may be deterred by the instability. There are concerns that if Lukashenko remains in power, the IT industry in Belarus will suffer a brain drain as companies move elsewhere, leading to a long-term economic crisis.

The response of the EU, US, and Russia

The EU, US, and Russia have all responded to the 2020-2021 Belarusian protests in various ways. Here is a detailed breakdown of their responses:

The EU's Response:

The European Union (EU) has taken several actions in response to the Belarusian protests. Initially, the EU faced internal divisions and struggled to reach a consensus on sanctions against Belarus due to disagreements among member states. However, the EU eventually imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials, including travel bans and asset freezes, targeting those responsible for violence and election fraud. The EU also rejected the legitimacy of the election that brought Alexander Lukashenko back to power, calling for new elections and condemning the repression and violence against protesters.

The EU has diverted funds away from the Belarusian government and towards civil society, victims of state violence, and the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. It has also imposed economic sanctions and restricted the issuance of journalist licenses to only state-approved and sponsored media outlets. The European Parliament recognized the opposition's Coordination Council as the "interim representation of the people" of Belarus.

The US Response:

The United States has been vocal in its support for the protesters and the opposition in Belarus. Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged the Belarusian government to engage with its society through the Coordination Council and respect their demands. The US has also imposed sanctions on Belarusian individuals, including members of the regime and Alexander Lukashenko himself. These sanctions include travel bans and asset freezes.

Russia's Response:

Russia's response to the Belarusian protests has been mixed. On the one hand, Russia has been accused of interfering in Belarus's internal affairs and supporting Lukashenko's regime. Lukashenko himself claimed that the protests were part of a foreign plot that may have involved Americans, NATO members, or even Russians. However, Russia has also offered a more neutral stance, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating that there was no need for Russia to interfere militarily or otherwise. Peskov also welcomed the fact that the leadership of the Coordination Council wanted to maintain good bilateral relationships with Russia.

In summary, the EU, US, and Russia have all played a role in the response to the Belarusian protests, with varying levels of support or opposition to the protesters and the Belarusian government.

Frequently asked questions