The Lingering Conflict: Afghanistan's Enduring Battle

The war in Afghanistan has been the longest war in US history. It began in 2001, after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States, when US-led forces invaded the country and overthrew the Taliban regime. The Taliban had refused to hand over Osama bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaeda, in the wake of the attacks.

Since then, the Taliban waged an insurgency against the Western-backed government in Kabul, Afghan national security forces, and international coalition troops. In 2014, the US-led coalition formally ended its combat mission, leaving the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) in charge of the country's security. However, the Taliban continued to attack rural districts and carry out suicide attacks in major cities, and the war remained a stalemate.

In February 2020, the US government and the Taliban signed a peace deal, the Doha Agreement, which set a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. Under the agreement, the US pledged to withdraw its troops within fourteen months, while the Taliban pledged to prevent territory under its control from being used by terrorist groups and to enter negotiations with the Afghan government.

In April 2021, US President Joe Biden announced that US military forces would leave Afghanistan by September 2021. The Taliban ramped up its offensive, capturing territory and threatening government-controlled areas. In August 2021, the Taliban entered the capital, Kabul, leading to the collapse of the Afghan government. The US deployed additional troops to assist with the evacuation of US and allied personnel, as well as Afghans who worked with the US. The last US military forces left Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, ending the United States' longest war.

The Taliban's resurgence and territorial gains

The Taliban's resurgence was facilitated by the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan. The reduction in the number of foreign forces and the shift in the US-NATO mission emboldened the Taliban, reducing the threat of being bombed or raided. The end of the US-led combat mission in 2014 and the subsequent withdrawal of most foreign forces from the country allowed the Taliban to regroup and plan their resurgence.

The Taliban took advantage of the Afghan security forces' lack of resources and equipment. The Afghan military also lacked certain capabilities, such as air power and reconnaissance, which further hindered their ability to counter the Taliban's offensive.

The Taliban's strategic choice to attack northern provinces, where the resistance against them had been strong during their previous regime, was a significant factor in their resurgence. Additionally, the Taliban's effective use of online social media played a role in their territorial gains. They utilised platforms like Twitter, WhatsApp, and TikTok to spread their message, exploit intratribal and ethnic differences, and build political momentum.

Furthermore, the Taliban's bottom-up campaign of negotiations in rural villages played a crucial role in their territorial gains. They negotiated and paid local government officials to transfer ANSF weapons to them, scaling up from village-level deals to district-level and eventually province-level surrenders. This provided the Taliban with increased resources, including government vehicles for transporting their forces.

The collapse of the Afghan government and security forces

The U.S. withdrawal of military forces and contractors was a significant factor in the collapse. The decision to withdraw was made by President Trump through the U.S.-Taliban agreement in February 2020 and later confirmed by President Biden in April 2021. This caused a decline in morale among Afghan security forces and led many Afghans to believe that the U.S. was abandoning them or negotiating a deal to hand over the country to the Taliban.

The reduction in U.S. support, particularly airstrikes, left the Afghan forces vulnerable to Taliban attacks. The U.S. rules of engagement allowed the Taliban to attack Afghan positions more easily, as Afghan forces could only receive air support if Taliban fighters were within 150 meters. Additionally, the U.S. never built the Afghan security forces to be self-sustaining, creating long-term dependencies, especially in areas like maintenance, logistics, and personnel management.

The frequent rotation of Afghan security force leaders and the marginalization of competent U.S.-trained officers by President Ashraf Ghani also contributed to the collapse. Ghani's paranoia about a potential coup led him to view U.S.-trained generals as a threat, and he prioritized loyalty over competence. This, along with the failure to develop a national security plan for the post-withdrawal era, left the Afghan forces ill-prepared to counter the Taliban's effective military and psychological campaigns.

The Taliban's military campaign isolated and undermined the will of Afghan forces, who lacked strategic guidance and support from Kabul. The Taliban's ability to move freely and mass their forces, combined with their psychological operations and incentives for surrender, led to a rapid succession of negotiated surrenders and the collapse of Afghan forces.

The US-Taliban Doha Agreement and withdrawal of US troops

The US-Taliban Doha Agreement, also known as the Doha Agreement, was signed on February 29, 2020, between the United States and the Taliban. The agreement set a timeline for the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan. The US pledged to reduce its troops to 8,500 within 135 days and to complete a full withdrawal within 14 months. In return, the Taliban committed to preventing terrorist groups from operating within the territory under its control and to enter negotiations with the Afghan government. However, no official ceasefire was put in place.

The agreement was signed by the Trump administration, and the withdrawal was confirmed by the Biden administration in April 2021. The US decision to withdraw was influenced by the desire to end America's longest war, shift resources to other counterterrorism priorities, and the belief that the Afghan security forces were capable of defending the country.

Following the agreement, the US reduced the number of airstrikes against the Taliban, which had detrimental effects on the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) fighting the Taliban insurgency. The Taliban took advantage of this situation and quickly resumed attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians. Despite the ongoing peace talks with the Afghan government, the Taliban continued to make territorial gains and capture key cities.

In April 2021, President Joe Biden announced that US military forces would leave Afghanistan by September 2021. The Taliban intensified their offensive and rapidly seized control of several border crossings and provincial capitals. By early August, the Taliban had entered Kabul, leading to the collapse of the Afghan government and the evacuation of US and allied personnel.

The US completed its military withdrawal from Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, marking the end of its 20-year military presence in the country. The withdrawal was not without controversy, as some critics argued that it was poorly executed and led to a power vacuum that the Taliban quickly filled.

The role of NATO and its allies in Afghanistan

NATO and its allies played a crucial role in Afghanistan for nearly two decades. Their involvement began in 2001 after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States, with the aim of preventing Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for international terrorists. Over the years, NATO allies engaged in a range of political and military efforts, including combat operations, security outreach, and humanitarian development projects.

In August 2003, NATO took the lead of the UN-mandated International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which aimed to strengthen the Afghan government and build the capacity of the Afghan National Security Forces. ISAF was one of the largest coalitions in history, with troops from 50 NATO and partner countries. It was completed in December 2014 when the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces assumed full responsibility for security across the country.

In January 2015, NATO launched the Resolute Support Mission (RSM) to train, advise, and assist Afghan security forces and institutions in countering terrorism and securing their country. RSM was a non-combat mission with around 10,000 personnel from 36 NATO allies and partner countries.

In February 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement to withdraw international forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. This decision was driven by the evolving nature of the terrorist threat and a shift in the tactics and focus of NATO's terrorism policy. In April 2021, NATO decided to withdraw all remaining forces from RSM by 1 May, and the mission was terminated in early September 2021.

Following the collapse of the Afghan government and security forces in the summer of 2021, NATO focused on evacuating personnel from allied and partner countries, as well as Afghans who worked with NATO. This evacuation effort, involving around 120,000 people, was one of the largest in NATO's history.

Since the end of NATO's presence in Afghanistan, the country has faced political isolation, economic collapse, and a grave humanitarian crisis. The lessons learned from NATO's engagement in Afghanistan have been the subject of extensive discussion within the alliance, with a focus on crisis management, maintaining interoperability with operational partners, and adapting to the evolving nature of international terrorism.

The future of human rights and democratic freedoms in Afghanistan

The Taliban have imposed policies that severely restrict the rights of women and girls, banning them from most employment and prohibiting them from attending secondary school and university. Women are required to have a male chaperone when travelling significant distances and to cover their faces in public. The Taliban have also restricted freedom of expression and assembly, with journalists, human rights defenders, and civil society activists facing violence, intimidation, and detention. The Taliban have also forcibly evicted people from their homes and closed beauty salons, impacting around 60,000 women-owned businesses.

The Taliban's actions have led to widespread condemnation from the international community, with the UN describing the situation as a "humanitarian catastrophe". The US and other countries have imposed sanctions on Afghanistan and cut off foreign development assistance, causing the Afghan economy to collapse and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. The World Food Programme reported that 92% of the population did not have enough food in 2022.

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