The Elusive Endgame: Obama's Afghanistan Conundrum

President Barack Obama had pledged to end the war in Afghanistan, and on December 28, 2014, a ceremony was held in Kabul to mark the occasion. However, Obama's efforts to withdraw troops from Afghanistan proved more challenging than anticipated. Despite scaling back military operations, he was unable to pull the United States out of the conflict entirely. Several factors contributed to this, including the resurgence of the Taliban and the need to build up the Afghan army. Obama's initial plans for a complete withdrawal were adjusted, and he ultimately left office with approximately 8,400 American troops still present in Afghanistan.

Obama's pledge to end the war

President Barack Obama came into office with the pledge to end the U.S. military role in Afghanistan's war. On February 17, 2009, he approved sending an additional 17,000 U.S. troops to bolster security in the country, bringing the total number of U.S. troops to 53,000. Obama recognised "the extraordinary strain this deployment places on our troops and military families", but the deteriorating security situation in the region required "urgent attention and swift action".

In a written statement, Obama said:

> "This increase is necessary to stabilize a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, which has not received the strategic attention, direction and resources it urgently requires... The Taliban is resurgent in Afghanistan, and Al-Qaeda supports the insurgency and threatens America from its safe haven along the Pakistani border."

On December 1, 2009, Obama announced at the United States Military Academy in West Point that the U.S. will be sending 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan. He set out a strategy that would seek to reverse Taliban gains, better protect the Afghan people, increase pressure on Afghanistan to build its military capacity, and step up attacks on Al Qaeda in Pakistan.

On December 28, 2014, U.S. and NATO officials held a ceremony at their headquarters in Kabul to mark the end of the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan. In a statement, Obama called the day "a milestone for our country" and said the United States was safer and more secure after 13 years of war. He added:

> "Thanks to the extraordinary sacrifices of our men and women in uniform, our combat mission in Afghanistan is ending, and the longest war in American history is coming to a responsible conclusion."

However, Obama acknowledged that Afghanistan remains a dangerous place and that the U.S. will maintain a limited military presence to train, advise, and assist Afghan forces and to conduct counterterrorism operations.

Despite Obama's pledge to end the war, the U.S. never fully withdrew its troops from Afghanistan during his presidency. In July 2016, due to the deteriorating security conditions and the Taliban resurgence attempt after the Battle of Kunduz, the U.S. postponed the withdrawal and decided to maintain a force of 8,400 troops indefinitely.

The Taliban's resilience

Ideological Motivations

The Taliban is a predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group that ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. They draw their ideological motivations from a harsh interpretation of Islamic law, which they imposed on the Afghan population during their previous rule. This interpretation includes the suppression of women's rights and the prohibition of activities deemed "un-Islamic," such as music and television.

Exploitation of Rugged Terrain

The Taliban has been able to exploit Afghanistan's rugged terrain to their advantage, using it as a base for insurgency and guerrilla warfare. They regrouped in southern Afghanistan and across the border in Pakistan following their initial overthrow by U.S.-led forces in 2001. From these bases, they waged a prolonged insurgency against the Western-backed government in Kabul and international coalition troops.

Support from Pakistan

Pakistan has been a key supporter of the Taliban, providing them with financial and logistical support. Pakistan's intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), has been accused of aiding the Taliban and providing them with safe havens. The Taliban's leadership council, the Rahbari Shura, is believed to be based in the Pakistani city of Quetta.

Ability to Adapt

The Taliban has also demonstrated a capacity for adaptation and strategic flexibility. They shifted their tactics in response to U.S. counterinsurgency operations, decentralizing their forces and adopting more clandestine methods. They also leveraged their connections with local populations and leveraged support from other countries, such as Iran and Russia.

Internal Cohesion and Unity

The Taliban's internal cohesion and unity have been crucial to their resilience. They have a strong sense of ideological commitment and unity of purpose, which has helped them maintain discipline and avoid splintering.

External Support

External support from countries like Pakistan, Iran, and Russia has also contributed to the Taliban's resilience. These countries have provided financial, military, and logistical assistance at various points, enabling the Taliban to sustain their insurgency and gain leverage in negotiations.

The fear of a complete American withdrawal

The Challenges of Withdrawal

Obama faced considerable challenges in ending the war in Afghanistan and withdrawing American troops. When he took office, he pledged to end the US military's role in the conflict. However, by the end of his second term, approximately 8,400 American troops remained in the country.

The Taliban's Resilience

A major obstacle to complete withdrawal was the resilience of the Taliban. Despite efforts to cripple and defeat them, the Taliban proved to be stubbornly resilient. They maintained their strength, particularly in the south and east of Afghanistan. This led to concerns that the Afghan military, still a work in progress, would struggle to maintain stability without continued US support.

The Iraq Precedent

The situation in Iraq also influenced Obama's decision-making. After withdrawing American combat troops from Iraq at the end of 2011, the country witnessed a resurgence of violence with the emergence of the Islamic State. This raised fears that a similar scenario could unfold in Afghanistan if all US forces were withdrawn.

The Need for a Strong Afghan Military

The goal of Obama's strategy was to stabilize Afghanistan by training and equipping the Afghan military to effectively combat the Taliban and other insurgent groups. However, this process took longer than anticipated, and the Afghan security forces continued to face challenges in their fight against the Taliban.

The Dangers of a Premature Withdrawal

There was a widespread belief that a premature and complete withdrawal of US forces could lead to a deterioration of security in Afghanistan. This could potentially result in a reversal of the gains made and a resurgence of extremist groups, endangering the progress made and threatening regional stability.

The Complexity of the Situation

The situation on the ground in Afghanistan was complex. While the US wanted to end its combat role, it recognized the need to maintain a limited military presence to support the Afghan government and security forces. This included providing training, advice, and counterterrorism operations against remnants of al-Qaeda and other extremist groups.

The Impact of Public Opinion

Public opinion in the US also played a role in shaping Obama's decisions. By the end of 2014, only 38% of Americans believed that the war in Afghanistan had been worth fighting, indicating a lack of support for prolonged military engagement.

In conclusion, the fear of a complete American withdrawal from Afghanistan was driven by concerns over the resilience of the Taliban, the potential for a security vacuum, and the desire to ensure that the gains made were sustained. The complex dynamics on the ground and the lessons learned from Iraq influenced Obama's approach, resulting in a cautious drawdown of troops rather than a complete withdrawal.

The Afghan military's dependence on US support

Obama inherited around 30,000 American troops in Afghanistan and increased this number to over 100,000 during his presidency. The plan was to cripple the Taliban, train the Afghan military, stabilize the government, and then withdraw US forces. However, the Afghan military was still a work in progress and heavily reliant on US support.

The US provided extensive training and equipment to the Afghan military, aiming to build a strong and self-sufficient force. In 2009, Obama announced the deployment of an additional 17,000 troops to Afghanistan, with 4,000 of them dedicated to training the Afghan army and police. This was accompanied by a surge of US civilians to help rebuild Afghanistan's infrastructure.

Despite these efforts, the Afghan military remained dependent on US air support, training, and counterterrorism operations. The Taliban's resilience and the fragile security situation in Afghanistan delayed the planned withdrawal of US troops. There were concerns that, without continued US support, the Afghan military would struggle and the country could descend into civil war.

Obama faced a challenging situation, trying to balance the goal of ending US military involvement in Afghanistan while ensuring the stability and security of the country. The Afghan military's dependence on US support was a critical factor in the complex decision-making process regarding troop withdrawal and the eventual end of America's longest war.

The Obama administration's messaging campaign

Barack Obama's administration unveiled a messaging campaign to convince Americans that US troops in Afghanistan would remain out of combat, with duties that relegated them to the sidelines. This messaging campaign was part of an illusion conjured by Obama to buy more time for US forces to build up the shaky Afghan army so that it would not collapse like the Iraqi forces had.

Obama's messaging campaign emphasised that the Afghan army and police would take full responsibility for their country's security from that point forward, with US and NATO forces restricted to "non-combat" roles as trainers and advisors. However, the Pentagon carved out numerous exceptions that, in practice, made the distinctions almost meaningless. In the skies, US fighters, bombers, helicopters and drones continued to fly combat missions against Taliban forces. On the ground, the Pentagon created another combat exception for troops carrying out "counterterrorism operations", or raids on specific targets. These rules of engagement permitted Special Operations forces to capture or kill members of al-Qaeda and "associated forces", a vague term that could also apply to the Taliban or other insurgents. The rules also allowed US troops to come to the aid of Afghan forces to prevent the fall of a major city or in other circumstances.

To maintain the "end of combat" fantasy for Americans at home, the Pentagon continued to deliver upbeat reports from the front. In February 2015, Ashton B. Carter, Obama's fourth defence secretary, visited Afghanistan and repeated some of the same Pollyannaish lines that his predecessors had recited since the start of the war. However, during a stop at Kandahar Airfield, Carter briefly went off-script and admitted that the Afghans had been inept until recently, contradicting the glossy assessments US officials had presented to the public for more than a decade.

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