The Geopolitics Of Afghanistan's Fobs: Oil, Influence, And Strategic Interests

Afghanistan is home to hundreds of military bases, including forward operating bases (FOBs), which are secured forward military positions used to support tactical operations. While the proximity of these FOBs to oil sources is unclear, Afghanistan is known to have significant oil reserves. By 2050, the US expects to import more than 80% of its petroleum from Central Asia, with much of this oil extracted from Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In 2016, Afghanistan consumed 35,000 barrels of oil per day, ranking 117th in the world for oil consumption. Notably, Afghanistan did not import or export any oil during this period.

The presence of military bases in Afghanistan, including FOBs, is likely influenced by various strategic factors, including the country's geopolitical significance, natural resources, and regional stability.

Afghanistan's oil reserves are expected to be a major source of US oil imports by 2050

Afghanistan's oil reserves are not expected to be a major source of US oil imports by 2050. In fact, a 2011 assessment by the US Geological Survey estimated that the Amu Darya basin, spanning Afghanistan and Tajikistan, contains 962 million barrels of crude oil. This is a relatively small amount when compared to other sources of US oil imports.

Instead, Afghanistan's oil reserves are expected to be a major source of revenue for the country's Taliban-led administration, which has signed oil extraction deals with Chinese companies. These deals are expected to bring much-needed economic growth and jobs to the war-torn country.

The US has historically been dependent on foreign oil, but the sources are changing. While the Middle East was once a major source of US oil imports, Canada, Latin America, and Africa have increasingly become the primary suppliers. In recent years, the US has also expanded domestic oil production, particularly from shale in North Dakota and other states.

Afghanistan's economy is one of the least developed in the world, and the country faces high unemployment and poverty rates. However, it is estimated to have over one trillion dollars in proven untapped mineral deposits, including extensive deposits of oil, natural gas, copper, gold, and lithium. The development and extraction of these resources have been hindered by decades of turmoil and the country's poor infrastructure.

In the past, the US has shown interest in Afghanistan's oil reserves, particularly in the context of pipeline routes and geopolitical strategies. However, with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, it is unclear what the future of Afghanistan's oil industry holds and how it will impact global oil markets.

The US has hundreds of military bases in Afghanistan, including Forward Operating Bases (FOBs)

The US has had hundreds of military bases in Afghanistan, including Forward Operating Bases (FOBs). The exact number of US bases in Afghanistan is unknown, but it is estimated that there are at least 400 US and coalition bases, including camps, FOBs, and combat outposts. In addition, there are at least 300 Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police bases, most of which are built, maintained, or supported by the US.

FOBs are secured forward military positions, commonly military bases, that are used to support tactical operations. They may or may not contain an airfield, hospital, or other facilities, and they may be used for an extended period. FOBs are traditionally supported by Main Operating Bases, which provide backup support.

One notable US FOB in Afghanistan was Camp Dwyer, a US Marine Corps installation and airfield located in the Gamir district of the Helmand River Valley. It was established as a FOB to combat insurgent activity in the Helmand Valley, a hotbed of terrorist activity. Another example is FOB Delaram, a US Marine Corps FOB located in Afghanistan's Delaram District along the 2,000 km Ring Road, the country's main thoroughfare.

The US also had larger bases in Afghanistan, including Bagram Air Base in Parwan Province and Kandahar International Airport in Kandahar, which was home to more than 26,000 US and international troops at its height. These bases served as hubs for US and coalition forces and included various facilities such as hospitals, dining options, and shops.

In 2021, the US began withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan, and by July 2021, the US had vacated Bagram Airfield, its largest base in the country. This marked a major milestone in the longest war in US military history and signalled the end of the US combat mission in Afghanistan. The US handed over its bases to Afghan forces or the Afghan government, and by August 2021, the Taliban had seized control of Kabul.

FOBs are secured military positions that may include an airfield, hospital, or other facilities

A forward operating base (FOB) is any secured forward military position, commonly a military base, that is used to support tactical operations. A FOB may contain an airfield, hospital, machine shop, or other logistical facilities. The base may be used for an extended period of time. FOBs are traditionally supported by main operating bases that are required to provide backup support to them. A FOB also improves reaction time to local areas as opposed to having all troops on the main operating base.

In its most basic form, a FOB consists of a ring of barbed wire around a position with a fortified entry control point, or ECP. More advanced FOBs include an assembly of earthen dams, concrete barriers, gates, watchtowers, bunkers and other force protection infrastructure. They are often built from Hesco bastions. FOBs also have an entry control point (ECP). An ECP is a controlled entry and exit point of the FOB and typically has positions to protect personnel against personnel-borne improvised explosive devices (PBIED) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED), plus blast mitigation with standoff protection.

Examples of FOBs in Afghanistan include Camp Dwyer, FOB Delaram, and FOB Airborne. Camp Dwyer, located in the Gamir district of the Helmand River Valley, was initially established as a FOB to counter insurgent activity in the region. FOB Delaram, situated in Afghanistan's Delaram District, is a forward operating base of the United States Marine Corps. FOB Airborne, positioned near Kane-Ezzat in Wardak Province, features reinforced concrete bunkers and blast protection barriers, exemplifying the defensive structures of advanced FOBs.

The US has been interested in Afghanistan's oil since the 1990s, when Unocal proposed a pipeline through the country

The US has long been interested in Afghanistan's oil and natural gas reserves, and this interest intensified in the 1990s when the American Unocal Corporation (now merged with Chevron) proposed building a pipeline through the country. Unocal saw Afghanistan as a strategic location for transporting oil and gas from the Caspian region and Central Asia to Pakistan and the Arabian Sea. This route would bypass Russian and Iranian territories, breaking their collective monopoly on regional energy supplies.

In the mid-1990s, Unocal began negotiating with the Taliban, which had taken control of Kabul in 1996, to build an 890-mile natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan. Unocal offered the Taliban 15 cents for every thousand cubic feet of gas pumped through the land they controlled. The company also lobbied the US government to support the Taliban, and US policy towards the regime was influenced by Unocal's interests during the first year of Taliban rule.

However, the plan faced obstacles due to the civil war in Afghanistan and opposition from feminist and environmental groups, who criticised Unocal and the US government for backing the Taliban. In 1998, Unocal informed the US Department of Energy that the pipeline project would be postponed until an internationally recognised government was in place in Afghanistan. The same year, Unocal withdrew from the consortium due to concerns over Taliban links to terrorist attacks on US embassies in Africa.

Despite these setbacks, the idea of a pipeline through Afghanistan remained appealing to the US government and oil companies due to its potential economic and geopolitical benefits. It provided an opportunity to diversify energy sources, increase access to Central Asian oil and gas reserves, and counter the influence of Russia and Iran in the region.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 brought the issue of the country's oil and gas resources back into the spotlight, with some arguing that this was a significant motive for the invasion. However, others have disputed this, claiming that Western governments and oil companies preferred alternative export routes that avoided Afghanistan due to security concerns.

In recent years, there have been renewed efforts to construct pipelines through Afghanistan, such as the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline, also known as the Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline. While construction on the project has started, it remains stalled due to security concerns and funding issues.

The US supported the Taliban in the 1990s to further its oil interests in the region

In the 1990s, the American Unocal Corporation considered building a 1,600-kilometre-long oil pipeline to link Turkmenistan to Pakistan's Arabian Sea coast. This pipeline would have provided an alternative export route for regional oil production from the Caspian Sea, bypassing Russian and Iranian territories, and breaking the Russian and Iranian collective monopoly on regional energy supplies.

In 1995, Unocal, with the assistance of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, began negotiating with the Taliban to build a pipeline across Afghanistan. In 1998, Unocal signed a deal with the Taliban to build an 890-mile natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan.

The US supported the Taliban during this time. In 1996, The Telegraph (London) reported that "the dream of securing a pipeline across Afghanistan is the main reason why Pakistan… has been so supportive of the Taliban." George Monbiot observed in The Guardian (London) that "For the first year of Taliban rule, US policy towards the regime appears to have been determined principally by Unocal’s interests."

The US also supported the Taliban through the CIA. In 1998, Brown University anthropologist William O. Beeman observed that "the only way to deny Iran everything is for the anti-Iranian Taliban to win in Afghanistan and to agree to the pipeline through their territory." This is exactly what happened, thanks to the CIA.

The US support for the Taliban in the 1990s was part of a broader strategy to pursue oil interests in the region. The US expected to import more than 80% of its petroleum from this region by 2050, and much of that oil would be extracted from beneath the deserts of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

However, the US support for the Taliban was not without consequences. The Taliban imposed a harsh interpretation of Islamic law, cracking down on women's rights and restricting civil liberties. The Taliban also provided safe haven for al-Qaeda, allowing them to launch international terrorist attacks, including the 9/11 attacks on the US in 2001.

Frequently asked questions