The Afghan Powder Keg: Assessing The Risk Of War

The War in Afghanistan, which lasted from 2001 to 2021, was the longest war in US history. It was triggered by the September 11 attacks and consisted of three phases. The first phase was to topple the Taliban, which was achieved in just two months. The second phase, from 2002 until 2008, was marked by a US strategy of defeating the Taliban and rebuilding core institutions of the Afghan state. The third phase, a turn to classic counterinsurgency doctrine, began in 2008 and accelerated with US President Barack Obama's decision to temporarily increase US troop presence in Afghanistan. The war ended with the Taliban's takeover of the country in August 2021.

The war resulted in devastating consequences for Afghanistan. It is estimated that between 176,000 and 212,000 people were killed, including 46,319 civilians. The war also caused mass displacement, with 2.6 million Afghans remaining refugees and another 4 million internally displaced by the time the Taliban returned to power in 2021. The war-induced breakdown of the economy, public health, security, and infrastructure has left 92% of the population facing food insecurity and 3 million children at risk of acute malnutrition. The war has also inflicted invisible wounds, with two-thirds of Afghans suffering from mental health problems.

The Taliban's resurgence

The US and NATO began withdrawing their troops from Afghanistan in 2014, as part of the Doha Agreement between the US and the Taliban. This agreement stipulated the withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan by 2021 and, in exchange, the Taliban pledged to prevent any militant group from staging attacks from Afghan territory against the US and its allies. However, the Afghan government was not a party to this deal and rejected its terms.

The withdrawal of US and NATO troops left a security vacuum that the Taliban was quick to exploit. The group had already been making territorial gains and capturing border crossings during the summer of 2021. In early August 2021, the Taliban began direct assaults on multiple urban areas, including Kandahar and Herat. On August 6, 2021, the Taliban captured the capital of southern Nimruz Province, and within days, they captured more than ten other provincial capitals.

The speed of the Taliban's territorial gains and the collapse of the Afghan government and security forces surprised US officials and allies. On August 15, 2021, Taliban fighters entered the capital, Kabul, and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. The Taliban announced that they had entered the presidential palace, taken control of Kabul, and established checkpoints to maintain security.

The Taliban took advantage of governance issues in Afghanistan, such as corruption and political infighting, to gain support and exploit divisions. Additionally, the Taliban effectively utilized guerrilla tactics, such as suicide bombings and roadside bombs, to carry out attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians.

The resurgence of the Taliban has had devastating consequences for Afghanistan, with girls once again being barred from secondary schools and women being required to have a male relative companion when traveling significant distances and to cover their faces in public. The Taliban has also reintroduced flogging, amputations, and mass executions, and has killed or forcibly disappeared nearly 500 former government officials and members of the Afghan security forces.

The US-Taliban peace talks

The agreement is only the first step to ending the more than 18-year war that has killed more than 157,000 people and is estimated to have cost the United States $2 trillion. The bigger challenge is achieving a peace agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Continued Taliban violence, a weak Afghan government, and objections by outside countries could spoil negotiations.

Ceasefire

Negotiators agreed to a temporary reduction in violence and said that a lasting ceasefire among US, Taliban, and Afghan forces would be part of intra-Afghan negotiations.

Withdrawal of foreign forces

The US agreed to reduce its troops in the country from 12,000 to 8,600 within 135 days. If the Taliban follows through on its commitments, all US and other foreign troops will leave Afghanistan within 14 months. Experts have cautioned that pulling troops out too quickly could be destabilizing.

Intra-Afghan negotiations

The Taliban agreed to start talks with the Afghan government in March 2020. Throughout the negotiating process, the Taliban had resisted direct talks with the government, calling it an American puppet. However, the Taliban has more recently indicated that talks are possible.

Counterterrorism assurances

The US invaded Afghanistan following the September 11, 2001 attacks, largely to eliminate the threat of terrorism. As part of the agreement, the Taliban guaranteed that Afghanistan will not be used by any of its members or terrorist groups to threaten the security of the US and its allies.

Challenges to the peace process

While the peace process is supported by a vast majority of Afghans, many issues remain to be worked out during intra-Afghan negotiations, including sharing power, disarming and reintegrating Taliban fighters into society, and determining the future of the country's democratic institutions and constitution.

The process could be complicated by a weak central government, afflicted by ethnic, sectarian, and tribal differences. The country's 2019 election was marred by many problems, including attacks on polling stations and a low voter turnout. When incumbent President Ashraf Ghani was announced the winner, his challenger, Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah, contested the results and said he would form his own government.

At the same time, experts say the Taliban is stronger now than at any point in the last 18 years, with an estimated 60,000 fighters and control over many districts throughout the country. It earns millions of dollars from the opium poppy cultivation and the illegal drug trade, which pose further problems for the peace process. Some analysts are also worried that rank-and-file Taliban fighters might not abide by a peace deal.

Countries on Afghanistan's borders, including Pakistan, could feel excluded from talks and mobilize opposition against them. Additionally, the threat of terrorism is still present, with more than 20 terrorist groups operating inside the country, according to Afghan officials. Many of these groups are aligned with the Taliban or al-Qaeda, and the resurgence of the Islamic State is a concern.

The Doha Agreement

The agreement did not include an official ceasefire, and the Taliban quickly resumed attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians. Direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban faced multiple delays and ultimately made little progress. Violence across Afghanistan continued as the US increased airstrikes and raids targeting the Taliban.

The US troop withdrawal

The evacuation was not without incident. On 26 August 2021, two suicide bombings outside Kabul airport killed at least 175 Afghans and 13 US troops. The attack was claimed by the Islamic State in Khorasan (ISIS-K).

The withdrawal of US troops was completed shortly before midnight on 30 August, with Major General Chris Donahue, commander of the US Army 82nd Airborne Division, being the last American service member to depart Afghanistan.

The Taliban's offensive in 2021

The Taliban's offensive began on May 1, 2021, coinciding with the withdrawal of the United States' 2,500 troops in Afghanistan, and those belonging to other international allies. In the first three months of the offensive, the Taliban made significant territorial gains in the countryside, increasing the number of districts it controlled from 73 to 223. On August 6, the Taliban launched an assault on the provincial capitals, with most of the towns surrendering without a fight, culminating with victories in weeks-long battles of major cities Herat, Kandahar and Lashkargah on August 13. On August 15, President Ashraf Ghani fled the country and the Taliban captured the Afghan capital Kabul with only sporadic resistance; thus, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan's government fell, resulting in the de facto takeover of the country and the reinstatement of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

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