Russia's Attack On Israel: Azerbaijan's Role?

Israel and Russia have had a complex relationship since the early 2000s, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 straining their ties. While Israel has maintained relations with Russia and refused to impose sanctions, it has also condemned some of Russia's actions. Russia, meanwhile, has been dependent on Iran for military support in Ukraine, and its ties with Israel and Iran are part of a broader strategy to counter the US-led world order.

Azerbaijan, a country with close ties to both Israel and Russia, has been strengthening its relationship with Israel since 2011 and is a major oil supplier to the country. It has also been alleged that Azerbaijan has aided Israel in its conflict with Iran, with reports suggesting that the two countries have considered using Azeri air bases and spy drones to help Israeli jets perform long-range strikes. However, these reports have been officially denied by both countries.

Given the complex dynamics between Israel, Russia, and Azerbaijan, it is challenging to predict whether Russia will attack Israel through Azerbaijan. While Azerbaijan has strong ties with Israel and could potentially provide support for military actions against Iran, it also has close relations with Russia and may be reluctant to jeopardize those ties by directly aiding Israel in a conflict with Russia.

Azerbaijan's role in a potential Israeli attack on Iran

Despite official denials by both countries, the idea that Azerbaijan could aid Israel in a potential attack on Iran is not far-fetched. Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, has become a rare Muslim friend of the Jewish state, with a $1.6 billion arms deal involving dozens of Israeli drones and Israel's interest in Azerbaijan's Caspian Sea crude. In addition, a leaked US diplomatic cable from 2009 quoted Aliyev as describing relations with Israel as "like an iceberg, nine-tenths... below the surface".

However, it is important to note that there are also risks and potential negative consequences associated with Azerbaijan aiding Israel in an attack on Iran. Aliyev's wealth depends on the energy industry, which could be harmed in the event of a violent conflict. Additionally, provoking Islamists who dream of toppling his dynasty could destabilize the region.

While there is no definitive information, some believe that Azerbaijan would likely feature in any Israeli plans to attack Iran, at least as a contingency for refueling its attack force. Azerbaijan has four ex-Soviet air bases that could be suitable for Israeli jets, and its tarmac is closer to key sites in northern Iran, which could be advantageous for Israeli war planning.

In conclusion, while there has been no confirmation of Azerbaijan's direct involvement in a potential Israeli attack on Iran, the country's strategic location, military capabilities, and relationship with Israel suggest that it could play a supporting role. However, the potential risks and consequences of such involvement should also be carefully considered.

Russia's military support for Iran

Russia has been providing military support to Iran in various forms since the 1990s. This support has included the provision of tanks, armoured vehicles, anti-tank missiles, combat aircraft, helicopters, and surface-to-air missiles, among other weapons. In recent years, the defence relationship between the two countries has strengthened even further, with Russia supplying Iran with advanced military technology, such as Su-35 fighter jets, Mi-28 attack helicopters, and S-400 missile defence systems.

In addition to hardware transfers, Russia has also been helping Iran with other aspects of its military development. This includes sharing intelligence, providing training, and establishing factories for the production of Iranian-style drones on Russian soil. Russian technicians have also been detected working on Iran's space launch vehicle program and other aspects of its missile programs.

The expansion of the defence relationship between Russia and Iran is driven by several factors. Firstly, Russia needs Iranian support for its campaign in Ukraine, particularly in the areas of ammunition, drones, and ballistic missiles. Secondly, both countries share a common adversary in the United States and seek to increase pressure on the US in the Middle East. Finally, the institutionalization of defence ties through various agreements and joint commissions has created vested interests in the continuation and expansion of the relationship.

Despite the close cooperation between the two countries, there are some limitations to Russia's military support for Iran. Russia has not provided Iran with all the weapons on its wish list, such as Su-35 advanced fighter aircraft and S-400 advanced air defence systems. Additionally, Russia's desire to maintain good relations with its Gulf Arab partners and its technological superiority over Iran also place some constraints on the level of support it can provide.

Looking ahead, it is expected that Russia and Iran will continue to deepen their defence relationship, particularly in the areas of joint production of weapon systems and counter-sanctions cooperation. However, it is unlikely that the relationship will evolve into a full-fledged and equal military-strategic partnership due to the aforementioned constraints.

Israel's diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan

Israel and Azerbaijan have enjoyed close diplomatic relations since they were formed in 1992, and these relations have become even tighter in recent years, mainly due to the threat posed by their mutual adversary, Iran. Israel and Azerbaijan established diplomatic relations in April 1992, and in 1993, Israel opened an embassy in Baku. Since then, relations have broadened and deepened.

Azerbaijan is a target for Israeli defence industry exports. Israeli defence companies have been involved in training special forces and bodyguards for senior officials in Azerbaijan, constructing security systems for the Baku airport, and upgrading military equipment from the Soviet era. In 2012, a $1.6 billion transaction involving the sale of weapons by Israel Aerospace Industries to Azerbaijan was reported. In 2016, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Azerbaijan had bought $5 billion worth of weapons from Israel.

Azerbaijan is considered to be one of the closest Muslim countries to Israel. However, Azerbaijan maintains a close and productive relationship with Palestine, which has an embassy in Baku. In 2009, during a visit to Azerbaijan, Palestinian foreign minister Riyad al-Maliki said that both countries try to restore their territorial integrity, so they must cooperate closely within international organisations.

In April 2018, al-Maliki visited Azerbaijan and said that the Palestinian state and its people support Azerbaijan's position in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and its settlement within international law. Azerbaijan hosted the meeting of ambassadors of the State of Palestine in Asian countries on 5 November 2018.

Azerbaijan's geographic position on Iran's border makes it an ideal site for Israel to gather strategic intelligence. Media sources claim that Israel helped Baku build electronic intelligence-gathering stations along the Azerbaijani border with Iran in the 1990s. Claims are occasionally made that the two countries are engaged in tactical cooperation against Iran. For instance, in 2012, Foreign Policy reported that Israel had an arrangement with Azerbaijan allowing it to potentially fly sorties out of the country.

Despite their close ties, Azerbaijan has been subject to pressure from neighbouring countries, including Iran, to cool its relations with Israel. During a visit to Azerbaijan by Israeli President Shimon Peres in 2009, the Iranian military chief of staff said the visit was "a step in the wrong direction".

Azerbaijan also experiences geopolitical pressure from Russia and a cold-to-hot war with Armenia. In these difficult geopolitical circumstances, Baku has to balance its relations with Israel carefully to avoid heavy pressure from Tehran, Moscow, and even Ankara.

Israel's military collaboration with Azerbaijan

Israel and Azerbaijan have a strong military relationship, with Israel being a major supplier of armaments to Azerbaijan. Israel has supplied Azerbaijan with battlefield aviation, artillery, anti-tank weaponry, and anti-infantry weaponry. Israel has also sold Azerbaijan drones, anti-aircraft systems, and missile defence systems.

Israel has also provided Azerbaijan with intelligence. During the 2020 conflict with Armenia, Israel provided Azerbaijan with comprehensive digital mapping of Nagorno-Karabakh, giving Azerbaijani forces a significant advantage. Israel has also helped Azerbaijan produce drones locally through a joint venture between the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence Industry and the Israeli company Aeronautics Defence Systems.

In addition to military collaboration, Israel and Azerbaijan also have strong economic ties. In 2021, 65% of Israel's crude oil came from Azerbaijan. Israel is also heavily involved in the Azerbaijani energy sector, with dozens of Israeli companies active in the country's oil and gas industries.

The impact of Azerbaijan's offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh on Israel's diplomacy with Iran

Azerbaijan's offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh and the expulsion of Armenians from the region will have a ripple effect on its relations with several countries, including Israel, Turkey, Russia, Armenia, and Iran. The impact of this offensive on Israel's diplomacy with Iran is complex and multifaceted. Here are some key points to consider:

• Israel-Azerbaijan Relationship: Israel and Azerbaijan have maintained a close relationship, with Israel being a key contributor to Azerbaijan's victory in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This support is part of their long-standing military-technical cooperation, which includes the sale of drones and missiles. The relationship is also underpinned by strategic cooperation in energy, with Israel importing nearly 40% of its oil from Azerbaijan. This partnership offers Israel a strategic depth in its confrontation with Iran.
• Iranian-Azerbaijani Tensions: Azerbaijan's actions in Nagorno-Karabakh may increase tensions with Iran, as there are more ethnic Azeris in Iran than in Azerbaijan. Additionally, Iran has been accused of supporting Azerbaijan's Islamist opposition, and both countries have a history of arresting alleged spies and agitators.
• Israeli-Iranian Rivalry: Israel considers Iran as its first existential threat, and the two countries are geopolitical competitors in the Middle East. Israel's support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be seen as a way to weaken Iran's positions in the South Caucasus and challenge its influence in the region.
• Diplomatic Maneuvering: The offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh may impact Israel's diplomatic maneuvering with Iran. With Azerbaijan's victory, Israel gains a platform to project its influence in the Caucasus and challenge Iranian influence in the region. This could potentially divert Turkish ambitions away from regions where Israel's vital interests are at stake, such as the Eastern Mediterranean.
• Image and Reputation: Israel's relationship with Azerbaijan has allowed it to maintain peaceful ties with a Shiite and non-Arab Muslim country, which is rare given the dominance of the Israeli-Palestinian issue in the region. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, has sought to improve its reputation in Washington and counter the influence of the Armenian lobby by strengthening its relationship with Israel.
• Military and Security Implications: The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has highlighted the importance of military bases and intelligence sharing between Israel and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan's bases and intelligence could potentially be used by Israel in any future strike against Iran. This includes refueling capabilities, reconnaissance, and rescuing crews, addressing key weaknesses in Israel's war plans.

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