Morales' Political Future: Another Bolivian Run?

Bolivia's former president Evo Morales has stated his intention to run for president again in 2025. Morales, who was the country's first indigenous president, served as president from 2006 to 2019 and is seeking to return to power after a controversial attempt to secure a third re-election in 2019. The 2019 election was disputed, with allegations of fraud and irregularities in the vote count, leading to deadly protests and Morales' eventual resignation and exile. Despite the controversy, Morales remains a popular figure in Bolivia, and his supporters see him as a champion of the poor who brought steady economic growth to the country. However, critics argue that he overstepped his bounds by seeking to bypass the constitution and term limits. The Bolivian court has since disqualified Morales from seeking re-election, stating that term limits prevent someone from perpetuating themselves in power. This decision has further polarized Bolivian society, with supporters and critics of Morales taking to the streets to protest, leading to clashes and violence.

Evo Morales' fourth presidential bid

Bolivia's first indigenous president, Evo Morales, has announced his intention to run for president again in 2025. Morales, who was in power from 2006 to 2019, is seeking a fourth term in office. This comes after he was ousted from power in 2019 following a controversial third re-election bid, which many claimed violated the country's constitution.

Morales' attempt to amend the constitution to allow him to run for a fourth term in 2019 was rejected by voters. However, he later won a court ruling that allowed him to run again, with the court arguing that barring him would violate human rights. Despite this ruling, Bolivia's Constitutional Court has since disqualified Morales from seeking re-election, stating that term limits are necessary to prevent individuals from perpetuating themselves in power.

Morales' announcement has stirred up factionalism within his Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party, with some members openly feuding with him. His former economy minister and current president, Luis Arce, has also fallen out with Morales, and the possibility of a heated MAS primary has increased with Morales' declaration to run.

Morales' supporters point to his championing of indigenous rights, anti-imperialism, and environmentalism, as well as significant economic growth, poverty reduction, and increased investment in social spending during his time in office. However, critics argue that his policies did not always reflect his rhetoric and that his defence of coca production contributed to illegal cocaine production.

Morales' fourth presidential bid has sparked intense debate in Bolivia, with supporters arguing that gains made for ordinary Bolivians could be erased if the right-wing opposition takes power. On the other hand, critics view Morales as a threat to Bolivia's democracy and argue that his re-election would keep him in office indefinitely, creating a state of virtual dictatorship.

The Bolivian court's ruling against Morales' re-election

Bolivia's Constitutional Court has disqualified former president Evo Morales from running for re-election in 2025, reversing a 2017 ruling that allowed him to seek a fourth term in 2019. Morales was first elected in 2006 and served three terms as president before attempting a controversial third re-election bid in 2019.

The 2023 ruling by the Constitutional Court stated that term limits are "an ideal measure for ensuring that someone does not perpetuate themselves in power". The court's decision limits the Bolivian presidency to two terms, regardless of whether they are served consecutively or not. This decision was based on criteria from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, which does not consider re-election to be a human right.

Morales had initially accepted the results of a 2016 referendum, in which 51% of Bolivian voters rejected his proposal to amend the constitution and remove term limits. However, he later changed his stance, claiming that his supporters wanted him to stay in office. Morales's attempt to seek a fourth term in 2019 sparked protests and allegations of election fraud, leading to his resignation and exile.

The former president has denounced the Constitutional Court's ruling as evidence of complicity against him, accusing judges, the government, and the right-wing of collusion. He has stated that he intends to run for president again in 2025, setting up a potential primary contest within his Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party.

The Bolivian courts' ruling against Morales's re-election sets a precedent for term limits and reinforces the principle of democratic power rotation in the country. It remains to be seen whether Morales will pursue legal or political avenues to challenge this decision or if he will respect the ruling and step aside in the 2025 election.

Luis Arce's 2025 presidential bid

Luis Alberto Arce Catacora, commonly known as Lucho, is a Bolivian banker, economist, and politician who has served as the 67th president of Bolivia since 2020. A member of the Movement for Socialism, Arce previously served as minister of finance and economy under Evo Morales, Bolivia's former president, from 2006 to 2017 and again in 2019.

In the lead-up to the 2025 presidential election, Arce has not explicitly stated whether he intends to run for re-election. However, he has been embroiled in a feud with his former political mentor, Morales, who has declared his own candidacy for the same election. The relationship between the two politicians has deteriorated since Morales was ousted from power in 2019 after a controversial attempt to secure a third re-election, which many believed violated the country's constitution. Despite Morales' initial support for Arce's candidacy in the 2020 election, which Arce won comfortably, the former president has since become critical of Arce's leadership.

Arce's potential 2025 presidential bid is further complicated by the presence of other key figures within the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party, such as Interior Minister Eduardo del Castillo and Justice Minister Iván Lima, whom Morales has accused of conspiring against him. Additionally, Arce's vice president, David Choquehuanca, an indigenous leader like Morales, has criticized Morales' re-election attempts and alleged "corruption and abuse of power" during his final years in office.

While Arce has attempted to avoid a direct confrontation with Morales, the possibility of a heated primary contest within the MAS has increased since Morales announced his candidacy. Arce's decision to run for re-election in 2025 will likely depend on several factors, including his ability to reconcile with Morales and unite the MAS party, as well as the level of support he receives from the Bolivian people.

Arce's potential re-election campaign would likely focus on his successful management of the economy as finance and economy minister, as well as his efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic through vaccine procurement and his commitment to judicial reform. However, he will also need to address challenges such as the need for economic diversification, institutional violence against women, and the recent coup attempt against his government in June 2024.

MAS party's role in the 2025 elections

The Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) or Movement Toward Socialism party in Bolivia is currently divided by competing candidates who want to lead the country in 2025. The party is split between supporters of current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales, who was ousted in 2019. Morales has since become a rival to Arce and has vowed to run against him in the 2025 presidential elections, widening the rift within MAS.

MAS has been weakened since 2019, despite still holding a majority in both chambers of parliament. The party's leadership has also become fragmented, with power contested by Arce, Morales, and Vice-President David Choquehuanca. The internal divisions within MAS are likely to be exacerbated by the lack of an effective opposition, with the opposition fragmented and lacking appeal at the national level.

The party is also facing economic challenges, with Bolivia on the verge of a potential debt default due to low international reserves and a lack of investment and competitiveness. MAS's majority bloc in Congress has split in half, with the legislature divided into three blocs (MAS-Arce, MAS-Morales, and the opposition), unable to reach agreements to address the economic stagnation.

The upcoming 2025 elections will be a critical test for MAS, with the party weakened by internal divisions and economic challenges. The party's ability to unite and address the country's economic woes will be crucial for its prospects in the elections. However, with Morales barred from running for president by the Constitutional Court, the path for MAS is uncertain.

MAS's role in the 2025 elections will be influenced by the ongoing leadership dispute and the economic situation. The party's ability to present a unified front and address the country's economic challenges will be crucial in determining its success. The divisions within MAS and the country's economic woes could pave the way for violence in the lead-up to the elections, similar to the political polarization and violence witnessed in 2019.

The 2019 election results and subsequent protests

The 2019 Bolivian general election was held on 20 October, with voters electing all 130 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 36 senators, as well as casting ballots for a joint slate of president and vice president. The incumbent, Evo Morales, was the most voted-for candidate, receiving 47.08% of the vote—almost 10.6 percentage points more than the second most-voted candidate, former president Carlos Mesa. This was enough for Morales to be announced as the winner without a run-off second-round vote, as the Bolivian constitution allows the President and Vice-President to put themselves forward for re-election only once, limiting the number of terms to two.

However, disputes over the transparency and legitimacy of the elections prompted weeks of widespread protests in Bolivia. The suspension of the preliminary vote count, in which Morales was not leading by a large enough margin (10%) to avoid a runoff, and the subsequent publication of the official count, in which Morales won by just over 10%, led to claims of electoral fraud. While the majority of the demonstrations were peaceful, there were also numerous acts of violence. Initial violence allegedly targeted opposition protesters, with pro-Morales supporters being given weapons and told to clear blockades, resulting in the death and injury of opposition protesters. In later weeks, senior members of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) and their families were victims of attacks, including vandalism and arson of their houses.

Morales denied the allegations and invited international observers to audit the electoral processes, promising to hold a runoff if any fraud was found, although he initially refused to be bound by the results of an audit. Opposition leaders rejected the OAS audit, saying they hadn't been party to the agreement. The OAS conducted an audit, claiming "clear manipulation" and significant irregularities, and releasing a full report. The European Union also released a report indicating that their observers found many irregularities and chaotic processes in the election. The New York Times later concluded that there was no statistical evidence of voter fraud as the audit had claimed.

Following protests, as well as calls for a second-round election from several foreign countries, Morales agreed on 10 November to hold new elections, at a date to be determined. Hours later, he and his vice president, Álvaro García Linera, were forced to resign from office after losing support from the police, the Bolivian Workers' Center, and the military. The President of the Senate and the President of the Chamber of Deputies—both party allies of Morales—resigned on the same day, exhausting the constitutional line of succession. As a result, the second vice president of the Senate, Jeanine Áñez of the opposition Social Democratic Movement, assumed the interim presidency of Bolivia on 12 November 2019.

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