Bolivia's Turmoil: Understanding The Country's Ongoing Crisis

Bolivia is facing a political and economic crisis. The country is in turmoil following the resignation of its first indigenous president, Evo Morales, in the face of pressure from the military, police and public protests over allegations of electoral fraud. An interim administration has taken power, but violent protests have already claimed lives, and the country faces an uncertain future. This crisis has been building for some time, with the country's economic woes compounded by political unrest and allegations of democratic failings.

Bolivia's economic crisis

Poor Resource Allocation

Bolivia, like other Latin American countries, has struggled with effective resource allocation. The country's economy is heavily dependent on its natural gas and oil reserves, and the revenue generated from these sectors. However, the Bolivian government has been criticised for allocating resources to projects and enterprises that are not economically viable, often prioritising short-term gains and electoral prospects over long-term economic health. This has resulted in significant losses and disrupted financial markets, requiring a painful structural adjustment to the economy.

Government Policies

The Bolivian government's economic policies have also contributed to the crisis. Over the years, the government has nationalised its currency, undermined the independence of the central bank, and manipulated inflation figures. This has led to a lack of trust in the market and encouraged risky investments. Additionally, the government has made grand promises of guaranteed profits, which have not materialised, further eroding confidence in the economy.

External Economic Conditions

External factors, such as falling oil prices, have also played a role in Bolivia's economic woes. However, it is important to note that the economic slump in Bolivia began before the drop in commodity prices in 2014. The country's economic slowdown started in 2013, and the decline in oil prices only exacerbated the existing problems.

Political Unrest

Adding to the economic woes, Bolivia has also faced political turmoil. Accusations of electoral fraud and the resignation of former President Evo Morales in 2019 have contributed to a period of uncertainty and instability in the country. The interim administration, led by Jeanine Áñez, has struggled to calm the situation, and violent protests have claimed lives. The country faces a challenging path to recovery, with deep divisions and mistrust among its citizens.

Evo Morales' resignation

On November 10, 2019, Evo Morales, the president of Bolivia, resigned from his position and left the country on a plane bound for Mexico. Morales' resignation came after weeks of unrest following the presidential and parliamentary elections on October 20, in which Morales appeared to have won in the first round. However, the election was overshadowed by accusations of electoral fraud and the possibility of military intervention.

Morales' political party, the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), had a strong social base in the peasant organizations of the Andean highlands and semi-tropical valleys, as well as support from unions and federations representing peasants and rural labourers. However, there was also significant opposition to Morales, including from urban middle-class and university student groups concerned with representative democracy, and indigenous groups who did not share the developmental agenda of the MAS government.

In the wake of the election, the city of Santa Cruz was shut down by a general strike, and there were protests and civic strikes in other cities as well. These protests were met with support from some social groups that had previously supported the MAS, including the Bolivian Workers' Central. The far-right opposition, led by Luis Fernando Camacho, called for military intervention and burned down the houses of several prominent MAS allies.

An audit of the election by the Organisation of American States found numerous voting irregularities, and by the day of Morales' resignation, the protesters' demands had shifted from new elections to Morales' exit. Morales' resignation left a power vacuum in Bolivia, with the deputy head of the senate, Jeanine Anez, likely to step in as interim president.

U.S. President Donald Trump released a statement regarding Morales' resignation, saying that it was a "significant moment for democracy in the Western Hemisphere" and that Morales' departure "preserves democracy and paves the way for the Bolivian people to have their voices heard."

Accusations of electoral fraud

The resignation of Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president and its longest-serving leader, was the culmination of weeks of unrest following the presidential and parliamentary elections on 20 October 2019. Morales initially appeared to have won in the first round, but accusations of electoral fraud and the threat of military intervention loomed over the entire process.

Various parties and candidates competed in the elections. After a preliminary vote count was interrupted, it resumed 24 hours later, indicating that Morales had narrowly surpassed the 10-percentage-point lead over his nearest rival needed to win outright. Observers from the Organization of American States (OAS) raised concerns, and their subsequent audit found evidence of "clear manipulation", including stuffed ballots, forged signatures, and compromised servers.

However, critics have questioned the impartiality of the OAS. They noted that Morales's apparent victory was in line with previous polling and argued that his late-stage surge in votes reflected the late reporting of rural areas. The preliminary report from the OAS audit, whose methodology has been questioned, stated that although there were numerous voting irregularities, it was highly probable that Morales would have captured the largest share of the vote anyway.

Morales had long been accused of using the levers of state to boost his popular support through free advertising and handouts to voters. Additionally, Bolivia's constitutional court, whose members are elected from candidates nominated by the government-controlled assembly, allowed Morales to run for a fourth consecutive term, despite him narrowly losing a referendum on the issue in 2016.

The allegations of electoral fraud, coupled with other factors, led to widespread protests and social unrest. During Morales's final days in office, social groups once supportive of his Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party joined the opposition, including the Bolivian Workers' Central. The far-right currents in the opposition movements also created conditions that allowed more extreme opposition groups to burn down the houses of several prominent MAS allies.

In the face of mounting pressure, Morales called for new elections to be overseen by a reconstituted Supreme Electoral Tribunal. However, by the day of his resignation, the demands of many protesters had escalated, and only Morales's exit would suffice.

Military intervention

The crisis in Bolivia in 2019 was the culmination of weeks of unrest following presidential and parliamentary elections on 20 October. Incumbent President Evo Morales was initially declared the winner, but the process was mired by accusations of electoral fraud. This led to civil protests, with violent clashes between pro-Morales groups and opposition protesters.

The role of the military in the crisis was significant. On 10 November, the head of the military, Williams Kaliman, suggested that Morales resign to "help restore peace and stability". The military also said it would conduct operations to "neutralise" any armed groups that attacked protesters. This intervention by the military was a decisive factor in Morales' resignation.

Morales had a fraught relationship with the military during his presidency. He had glorified Che Guevara, whose guerrillas had killed 59 Bolivian troops during their insurgency in the 1960s, and he forced officers to attend the Anti-Imperialist Military Academy led by a former rebel. Morales also spent little on the country's armed forces, fearing a potential overthrow. These actions offended officers and weakened Morales' hold on the military.

In the lead-up to the 2019 crisis, the military refused to suppress violent demonstrations, with General Williams Kaliman stating that the military would "never confront the people". This left Morales vulnerable to protesters, as he had relied on the support of civil organisations and the military for protection.

The military's intervention in the 2019 Bolivian crisis was a pivotal moment that ultimately led to the resignation of President Evo Morales. The military's role in the crisis reflected the tense relationship between Morales and the armed forces during his presidency.

Political and social unrest

Morales initially appeared to have won the presidential election in the first round of voting, but the process was mired in accusations of fraud and the threat of military intervention loomed. An audit by the Organisation of American States (OAS) found evidence of "clear manipulation", including stuffed ballots, forged signatures, and compromised servers. However, critics questioned the impartiality of the OAS and argued that Morales's apparent victory reflected late-reporting rural areas.

The situation was complex, with elements of both a military coup d'état and a mass protest movement. Morales resigned following a suggestion by the head of the military, but this came after weeks of protests and strikes, and the emergence of a powerful opposition movement. The resignation was met with jubilation by some sectors of Bolivian society and despair by others, illustrating the country's deep divisions.

The opposition to Morales comprised multiple, contradictory groups. The largest was a group concerned with representative democracy, including the urban middle classes and university students. There were also indigenous groups who did not share the developmental agenda of Morales's Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party, particularly lowland indigenous groups affected by hydrocarbon extraction and infrastructure projects. Regional opposition groups were also concerned with the distribution of power and resources within the country.

During the final days of Morales's presidency, even social groups that had previously supported MAS joined the protests, including the Bolivian Workers' Central. The emergence of far-right figures calling for military intervention and evangelical politics further inflamed tensions, with acts of violence targeting the homes of MAS allies.

The resignation of Morales and his vice-president, Álvaro García Linera, left a power vacuum. Jeanine Anez, the deputy head of the senate, stepped in as interim president, but the path to new elections was uncertain. The exclusion of a large, mainly rural, indigenous section of the population from the political process threatened further violence and social unrest.

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