Azerbaijan-Iran Border: A Ticking Time Bomb?

Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have been steadily increasing, with divisive incidents occurring almost weekly. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has promised reciprocal diplomatic action after Azerbaijan expelled four Iranian diplomats. Azerbaijan has also arrested several of its own citizens accused of being linked to Iranian secret services and plotting a coup. In addition, Azerbaijan has criticised Iran for allegedly backing Armenia in the decades-long conflict over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Iran, in turn, has accused Azerbaijan of inciting separatist sentiment within its borders. The biggest source of contention, however, may be Azerbaijan's growing relationship with Israel, which Iran considers a security threat. Despite the escalating tensions, analysts don't expect a conflict anytime soon, as both countries are economically interdependent and there are still diplomatic channels open.

Azerbaijan's warming relationship with Israel

Azerbaijan and Israel have been strengthening their ties since 2011. In 2022, Azerbaijan announced it would be opening an embassy in Israel, marking the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two states. In March 2023, Azerbaijan opened its embassy in Israel. In February 2024, amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, Azerbaijani President Aliyev met with Israeli President Herzog, reaffirming bilateral relations between the two countries.

Azerbaijan and Israel share similar goals and interests. Both seek to diversify their foreign relations in a hostile neighborhood. They both consider Iran their arch-enemy and favor an assertive strategy against Tehran. They both view political Islam and Islamic fundamentalism – practiced by Iran – as a threat. And they both view Russia with suspicion.

Azerbaijan is a major oil supplier to Israel and has resisted pressure to cut ties with Israel over the Gaza war. Israel is the largest supplier of weapons to Azerbaijan. During the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war with Armenia, Azerbaijan deployed Israeli-made weapons on Armenian targets.

The partnership between Azerbaijan and Israel has intensified since the latest full-scale war over Nagorno-Karabakh erupted in September 2020. It is not a new phenomenon, though it dramatically deepened after the Second Karabakh War in 2020. Prior to this conflict, Azerbaijan had adopted a cautious approach to comprehensive defense ties with Israel.

The latest war brought radical shifts to the region, and Iran responded by mobilizing its forces near its borders with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan, for its part, did not back down but instead began openly and loudly praising the defense partnership with Tel Aviv in state media. Therefore, Baku values Israel's partnership a lot and sees it as a counterweight to Iranian threats.

The warming relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel has stoked concerns in Iran over the establishment of a "second Israel" in the Caucasus. Tehran has been increasingly warning Baku against warming up to Tel Aviv, saying it could constitute a national security threat for Iran that cannot be ignored.

Baku's budding ties with Iran's arch-foe

Baku's budding ties with Israel, Iran's arch-foe, have been a source of tension between the two countries. Iran has warned Baku against warming up to Tel Aviv, and the inflammatory rhetoric reached new heights when Israel and Azerbaijan's top diplomats discussed forming a united front against Iran.

Azerbaijan's growing relationship with Israel is particularly irksome to Iran, given that Azerbaijan is a majority Shi'a country, just like Iran, and the two countries share strong historical and cultural connections.

In addition to religious and cultural ties, Iran and Azerbaijan also share a border and have historically had close relations. However, in recent years, Azerbaijan has become increasingly pro-Western and has strengthened its ties with Israel, the United States, and Turkey, while Iran remains largely pro-Russian and pro-Chinese due to its hostility towards the US.

The growing ties between Azerbaijan and Israel have manifested in military cooperation, with Azerbaijan relying on Israel as one of its main sources of defence and military equipment. This has been a significant area of concern for Iran, which has held several military exercises near the border with Azerbaijan as a show of force.

The tensions between Baku and Tehran have also been exacerbated by Azerbaijan's intention to use the lands retaken from Armenia during the 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh to build the Zangezur Corridor, which would connect mainland Azerbaijan to its Naxcivan exclave and open a trade route to Turkey. Iran strongly opposes this plan as it would weaken its influence in the region.

Despite the tensions, there have been recent efforts to improve relations between Iran and Azerbaijan, with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visiting Baku in July 2023 and both countries expressing a willingness to work towards better ties.

The Zangezur Corridor

The concept of the Zangezur Corridor was introduced by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement, despite not being included in the agreement's terms. Since then, it has been promoted by Azerbaijan and Turkey, while Armenia has consistently objected, arguing that it deviates from the ceasefire statement and constitutes propaganda. Armenia has proposed an alternative vision of broader regional connectivity, involving the opening of de jure borders and the rebuilding of Soviet-era cross-border roads and railways, all within the framework of international law and respecting the sovereignty of the countries through which they pass.

The dispute over the Zangezur Corridor has escalated tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with both sides engaging in a mutual blockade since 1989. Azerbaijan has initiated construction projects, presenting them as part of the implementation of the corridor and has threatened to establish the corridor by force if Armenia does not accede. In response, Armenia has vowed to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The dispute over the Zangezur Corridor remains unresolved, with Azerbaijan pushing for its creation and Armenia resisting, supported by international allies such as the EU and the US. The outcome of this dispute will have implications for the balance of power in the region and beyond.

Baku's intention to use retaken lands

Baku's intention for the lands retaken from Armenia is to reassert its sovereignty over the territory. Immediately after the 2020 Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijan moved to solidify its control over the region. This included deploying troops to the border with Syunik, an Armenian province that shares a border with the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, and putting up signs welcoming visitors to Azerbaijan in English and Azeri but not Armenian.

Azerbaijan's actions in the region have caused concern in Armenia and beyond. Many fear that Baku may have designs on Syunik, and there are worries of a gradual depopulation of the region, rendering it more vulnerable. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has warned of the possibility of heightened tensions, urging the international community to take preemptive measures to prevent what he referred to as a "new explosion in the Caucasus".

In addition to its actions in Syunik, Azerbaijan has also advanced ambiguous claims on parts of Armenia, particularly Syunik, which it refers to as "Western Azerbaijan". Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has demanded the creation of a "Zangezur Corridor" through the region, connecting Azerbaijan's mainland with its exclave of Naxcivan, and has threatened to seize the land by force if Armenia does not comply.

However, it is important to note that Azerbaijan has denied making territorial claims on Armenia and has stated that it respects the country's territorial integrity and internationally recognized borders.

Azerbaijan's encroachment on Armenian territory

Azerbaijan and Armenia have been engaged in a border conflict since May 12, 2021, when Azerbaijani soldiers crossed several kilometres into Armenia in the provinces of Syunik and Gegharkunik. This incursion was followed by repeated escalations, with significant incursions occurring along the Armenia-Nakhchivan border in July 2021 and in the Gegharkunik-Kalbajar area in November 2021. In August 2021, Azerbaijani forces blockaded southern Armenia by closing the main north-south highway, effectively isolating Armenia from Iran.

Azerbaijan has maintained its presence on Armenian soil, occupying at least 215 square kilometres of internationally recognised Armenian territory. This occupation follows a pattern of Azerbaijan provoking cross-border fights and instigating ceasefire violations when its government is unhappy with the pace of negotiations with Armenia. Despite calls from the European Parliament, France, Iran, and the United States for Azerbaijan to withdraw its troops, it has refused to do so.

Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, has made irredentist claims over Armenian territory, referring to it as "Western Azerbaijan" and stating that it is the "historical land" of Azerbaijan. He has threatened to use force to establish a corridor from Nakhchivan to western Azerbaijan through Armenia's Syunik Province. Turkey supports Azerbaijan in its territorial claims over Armenia's Syunik province.

In September 2022, Azerbaijan launched an unprovoked invasion of Armenia, striking positions along a 200-kilometre stretch of their shared border and attacking military and civilian positions. At least 105 Armenian and 71 Azerbaijani soldiers were killed in this attack, and at least 7,600 civilians were displaced.

Azerbaijan's attacks have been enabled by Russia's preoccupation with its invasion of Ukraine, its military ties with Russia, and its economic ties with European powers. Additionally, Azerbaijan enjoys solid support, including military support, from its close ally Turkey. Only Iran has signalled concern over the possibility of risks to its border with Armenia.

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has raised concerns about the potential for genocide against Armenians in the Caucasus. Azerbaijan's actions have been characterised as an attempt to eliminate the Armenian presence in the region and as an extension of the 1915 Ottoman genocide against Armenians.

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