Belarus' Future: Lukashenko's Regime On The Brink?

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1994. In 2020, mass protests erupted in response to a disputed presidential election, with tens of thousands of people taking to the streets of Minsk every weekend to demand Lukashenko's resignation. Despite international sanctions and condemnation, Lukashenko has maintained his grip on power through police brutality, strict control of domestic levers of power, and support from neighbouring Russia. However, the recent collaboration between Lukashenko and the Kremlin in the war in Ukraine has led to speculation about the possibility of Lukashenko being overthrown. While some analysts believe that Lukashenko's support for the war will expedite his fall from power, others argue that his alliance with Russia provides him with more security. The opposition, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, is preparing to make its move, but the success of their efforts remains uncertain.

The role of the Belarusian military

The Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus consist of the Ground Forces and the Air Force and Air Defence Forces, all under the command of the Ministry of Defence. The Belarusian military also has control over some small Soviet-inherited naval vessels in its rivers and lakes. The Belarusian military still holds many Soviet military laws and holds high numbers of reserve personnel as a high priority.

The Belarusian military has been a key supporter of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled the country since 1994. Despite mass protests and international condemnation, Lukashenko has managed to maintain power with the backing of the military, police, and neighbouring Russia. The loyalty of the security forces has been crucial to Lukashenko's ability to suppress opposition and crack down on protests.

In recent years, there have been some signs of dissent within the military, with a few highly publicized cases of officers throwing away their uniforms in the early days of the protests. However, the vast majority of the security services continue to support Lukashenko. Opposition leaders have attempted to appeal to the military and police to switch sides, but these efforts have largely fallen on deaf ears.

The Belarusian military has conducted joint exercises with Russian forces and hosted their officers in Russian military academies. Russia has sought to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus and integrate Belarusian forces into its Western Military District's planning. This integration has raised concerns among NATO members and neighbouring countries.

The impact of Western sanctions

Western sanctions have been imposed on Belarus in response to the crackdown on protests and the interception of a Ryanair flight in May 2021, which carried a prominent dissident journalist, Roman Protasevich, and his girlfriend. The sanctions target key sectors of the struggling Belarusian economy, and aim to punish the Lukashenko regime.

The impact of these sanctions has been significant. In response, Minsk has suspended its participation in the Eastern Partnership, an initiative to boost ties between the EU and its ex-Soviet neighbours. Additionally, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry has ordered Latvian diplomats out of the country and bristled at what it described as "belligerent" EU statements.

The sanctions have also had economic repercussions. British Airways has diverted flights around Belarus, and Lufthansa reported a delay on a flight from Minsk to Frankfurt due to a "security warning". The sanctions have also impacted the Belarusian aviation industry, as the EU has banned Belarusian airlines from using its airspace and airports.

The sanctions have further contributed to the political crisis in Belarus, which began after the disputed presidential election in August 2020. The opposition, led by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, has been urging their supporters to invalidate ballots during the referendum on the new constitution, which is seen as an attempt by Lukashenko to cement his power.

The sanctions have also affected individuals associated with the Lukashenko regime. The EU has levied sanctions against some backers of the regime, including a travel ban and asset freeze aimed at Lukashenko himself. However, the sanctions do not appear to have significantly impacted Lukashenko's grip on power, as he continues to control the domestic levers of power and enjoys the support of the military, police, and neighbouring Russia.

Overall, the Western sanctions have had a notable impact on Belarus, affecting diplomatic relations, economic activities, and political dynamics. However, their effectiveness in achieving the desired outcome of overthrowing the Lukashenko regime remains uncertain.

The influence of Russia

Russia has been a key factor in Alexander Lukashenko's ability to maintain his grip on power in Belarus. Lukashenko's relationship with Russia has been complex and multi-faceted, with both countries relying on each other for support.

Firstly, Lukashenko has historically aligned himself closely with Russia, particularly in the early years of his presidency. This alignment likely stems from his admiration for the Soviet Union and his desire to create a Union State of Russia and Belarus, which would allow free movement between the two countries. Lukashenko even played a crucial role in brokering a deal to end the Russian Wagner Group rebellion in 2023, further solidifying his relationship with Russia.

Secondly, Russia has provided Lukashenko with significant economic support. Belarus relies heavily on cheap Russian energy and other subsidies to sustain its Soviet-style centralized economy. This economic dependence has given Russia leverage over Lukashenko and allowed him to shrug off the impact of Western sanctions. Additionally, Russia provided Lukashenko with a $1.5 billion loan in 2020 to support Belarus's struggling finances.

Thirdly, Russia has offered Lukashenko military support. In 2020, Moscow deployed security forces to the Belarus border to support Lukashenko during a period of mass protests. More recently, Russia used Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine in 2022, and Lukashenko agreed to host Russian tactical nuclear weapons. This military cooperation demonstrates the depth of the strategic alliance between the two countries.

Finally, Lukashenko has cultivated a personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. While there have been tensions and disagreements between the two leaders, Putin has ultimately supported Lukashenko during critical moments, such as the 2020 protests. Putin's backing has likely contributed to Lukashenko's ability to remain in power despite domestic and international opposition.

In summary, Russia's influence, in the form of economic, military, and political support, has been a crucial factor in Lukashenko's longevity as the leader of Belarus. Lukashenko's relationship with Russia has allowed him to consolidate his power, suppress dissent, and maintain his authoritarian rule.

The power of the opposition

The opposition consists of various groups and individuals seeking to challenge Lukashenko's rule, which is characterised by the suppression of political freedoms and human rights abuses. Supporters of the movement tend to call for a parliamentary democracy based on a Western model, with freedom of speech and political and religious pluralism. The opposition has gained significant momentum in recent years, particularly following the disputed 2020 presidential election, which sparked mass demonstrations and the largest anti-government protests in the country's history.

The opposition is led by figures such as Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Pavel Latushko, and Franak Viacorka, who have urged their supporters to boycott elections and invalidate ballots. They have also received support from foreign governments, with the EU, the UK, and Canada imposing sanctions on members of the Lukashenko regime. However, the opposition faces significant challenges, with many of its leaders either in jail or in exile, and the security forces, including the police and military, largely remaining loyal to Lukashenko.

Despite these challenges, the opposition has been able to organise mass protests and coordinate their activities through the use of technology, such as the Telegram messaging app. They have also gained support from within the country, with some diplomats and government officials voicing their support for the movement. The opposition's goal is to overthrow Lukashenko's regime and establish a democratic system that respects human rights and freedoms. They continue to face a formidable opponent in Lukashenko, who is backed by Russia and has shown no sign of negotiating with the opposition. However, the opposition remains determined to resist and fight for a free and fair Belarus.

The possibility of a referendum

In December 2021, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced plans for a referendum on a new constitution, due to take place in February. This move was widely seen as an attempt to maintain his grip on power in the face of widespread opposition. Lukashenko framed the referendum in terms of patriotism and national defence, urging Belarusians to "defend [their] turf". He also made clear his intention to create a governance system that differs from that of a liberal democracy, with power concentrated in the Belarusian People's Assembly, an advisory body composed of loyalists.

The opposition, led by figures such as Pavel Latushko and Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, vowed to "overthrow" Lukashenko's plan, urging supporters to boycott or invalidate ballots during the referendum. They argued that the referendum was a deceptive tactic to keep Lukashenko in power and that it offered no real choice to the Belarusian people. Despite their efforts, there was pessimism about the likelihood of stopping Lukashenko, given the fragmented and exiled state of the opposition.

Lukashenko's strategy to hold on to power included not only the referendum but also a broader crackdown on dissent. He urged law enforcement to remain vigilant and not "relax" in the face of opposition efforts. The security forces continued to beat and arrest protesters, and the regime took an increasingly punitive stance, even introducing the death penalty for certain offences. Lukashenko also created a "people's militia" to reinforce the army and territorial defence forces, citing the need to defend the country's borders.

In March 2022, Lukashenko revoked Belarus's post-cold war constitutional neutrality, allowing the permanent presence of Russian forces and nuclear weapons in the country. This move was enabled by a staged referendum and further solidified Lukashenko's alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The opposition, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, argued that this development effectively ceded control of Belarus to the Kremlin, with Lukashenko becoming a "puppet" of Putin.

Facing a looming economic crisis and sustained domestic resistance, Lukashenko's best chance of retaining power appeared to lie in maintaining his alliance with Moscow. However, his collaboration with Russia in the war in Ukraine and the resulting international sanctions exacerbated the economic challenges facing his regime. As the economic situation deteriorated, observers expected Lukashenko to intensify repression to counter the growing risk of labour unrest and strike action.

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