Angola's Future: Improving Social Conditions And Welfare

Angola's social conditions are unlikely to improve in the near future, despite its status as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. The country faces a myriad of challenges, including extreme income inequality, a lack of economic diversification, high unemployment, food insecurity, and poor access to basic services such as education, healthcare, electricity, and clean water.

Angola's economy is heavily reliant on the oil sector, which has led to volatile growth and high levels of poverty and inequality. While the government has implemented reforms to improve macroeconomic management and public sector governance, the country continues to struggle with high debt, inflation, and a lack of job creation.

The social indicators in Angola are concerning, with a very low life expectancy, high infant mortality rates, and a lack of access to education and healthcare. The country also faces challenges with political instability, corruption, and human rights abuses, further exacerbating the social conditions.

However, there are some signs of progress and efforts to improve the situation. The government has secured loans and aid from international organizations, and there is a focus on economic diversification and social protection programs. Additionally, there is a growing civil society movement and increased mobilization of opposition parties, which could lead to further pressure for change.

Angola's dependence on oil

Angola's dependence on the oil sector has made it highly vulnerable to global shocks and has complicated the government's efforts to achieve sustainable economic growth. Over the last five years, crude oil and oil products have accounted for approximately 96% of Angola's total exports, 56% of fiscal revenues, and 34% of the country's total real gross domestic product. This dependence has left Angola vulnerable to volatile oil prices, which have had a detrimental effect on the economy.

The oil sector's dominance has also led to a lack of economic diversification, with other sectors such as construction and agriculture underperforming when oil prices decline. In addition, oil dependency has brought about competitiveness issues typical of Dutch disease, with high oil prices and a fixed exchange rate regime driving up the cost of doing business in non-oil sectors.

Angola's reliance on oil production has also contributed to challenges in fostering inclusive growth. The capital-intensive energy sector provides a limited number of formal sector jobs, while the majority of the population works in rural areas, mostly in subsistence farming. As a result, poverty rates remain high, with the World Bank reporting a poverty rate of 32.3% in 2019 and an estimated poverty rate of 56% in 2020 using the international poverty line of $1.90/day.

The country's dependence on oil has also hindered efforts to address climate change. Angola's geography is well-suited for producing renewable energy, but investment in alternative clean energy sources has been lacking. In addition, government expenditure on environmental protection has been less than 0.6% of gross domestic product, while greenhouse gas emissions have been on the rise.

To promote sustained and inclusive growth, Angola has taken steps to reduce its excessive dependency on oil and diversify its economy. These include addressing fiscal imbalances by increasing revenue from non-oil sources, liberalizing the exchange rate regime, and carefully managing debt. The government has also implemented anti-corruption measures and improved governance, although more progress is needed in these areas.

To promote economic diversification, Angola should continue to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve infrastructure, and invest in education and human capital development. The country should also focus on sectors with high potential for growth and employment, such as agriculture and telecommunications.

Lack of infrastructure

Angola's infrastructure has been devastated by its long civil war. Roads, railways, and bridges have been severely damaged, and the country is littered with millions of landmines that hamper reconstruction efforts and continue to harm civilians. The transportation sector has been particularly badly affected, with over 60% of the paved road network in need of repair. The Angolan government estimates it will take 10 to 15 years to restore the road network to its pre-war state, assuming an end to the fighting.

The poor state of the country's infrastructure has a detrimental effect on other sectors of the economy. Roads, railways, and bridges are essential for linking Angola's main cities and facilitating the movement of goods and services. The lack of infrastructure, combined with the ongoing political violence, also discourages external investment in the country.

The education system has also been devastated by the war. Schools have been destroyed, and the government, which has spent vast sums on military equipment, has little left to invest in education. As a result, many children lack access to education, and the quality of teaching is poor.

Angola has prioritised the repair, expansion, and modernisation of its infrastructure as a central element of post-civil war reconstruction and economic development. However, the country faces significant challenges, including a lack of skilled labour and a high level of corruption.

Poor education system

Angola's education system has been in a state of disrepair for several years, hampered by a history of civil conflict, underinvestment, and a lack of focus on teaching quality.

Impact of Civil War

The Angolan Civil War (1975-2002) left the education system in disarray, with entire villages and cities flattened and the country's education infrastructure in ruins. During the conflict, the government spent vast sums on military equipment and operations, leaving little for investment in education. Military training superseded regular education for many youths. The war also resulted in the loss of educational staff, as most Portuguese teachers left the country, and instructional materials became scarce.

Underinvestment in Education

Angola has historically underinvested in its education sector, with low budgetary allocations and insufficient funding for schools, teachers, and resources. This has resulted in overcrowded classrooms, a lack of basic infrastructure, and outdated or insufficient learning materials. The shortage of qualified teachers has led to overworked and underpaid instructors who are often inadequately trained.

Lack of Focus on Teaching Quality

The Angolan government's focus on education expansion rather than teaching quality has resulted in a lack of curriculum verification and inappropriate facilities at educational institutions, especially private ones. The absence of qualified teachers has also meant that instructors are often tasked with teaching a large number of subjects outside their areas of expertise.

Socio-Economic Factors

Socio-economic factors, such as poverty, teenage pregnancy, and child marriage, also contribute to the challenges in Angola's education system. Poverty is a significant barrier to education, with high living costs, long distances to schools, and expensive transportation preventing many children, especially girls, from accessing education. Teenage pregnancy, with Angola having one of the highest rates globally, often interrupts girls' education, contributing to low literacy rates among young women.

Initiatives for Improvement

Despite these challenges, the Angolan government and international organizations have undertaken various initiatives to improve the education system. The government has implemented programs such as the Teacher Training Master Plan and collaborated with UNICEF on the Back-to-School Campaign and the Schools for Africa (SFA) initiative. Additionally, the World Bank approved a 10-year, $550 million program in 2023 to support Angola's tertiary education system and improve learning conditions for students.

Income inequality

Angola's economic fortunes have been tied to global oil demand, which has resulted in volatile growth and high levels of poverty and inequality. Over 60% of all income earned in Angola between 2018 and 2019 was concentrated among the richest 20% of the population, while the lowest 20% obtained only 2.3% of all earnings. This means that the average income of an Angolan in the richest quintile was more than 30 times that of an individual in the poorest quintile. The Gini Coefficient in Angola, a measure of income inequality, was measured at 0.6 during this period, indicating high inequality.

The country's dependence on the oil sector has made it vulnerable to external shocks and undermined macroeconomic stability. Angola's economy is dominated by the state-run oil company, Sonangol, which has been criticised for creating conflicts of interest and weakening the formal budgetary process. The concentration of wealth in the oil sector has also made economic diversification difficult, with private investment flowing primarily to oil or oil-related sectors.

The government has made some efforts to address inequality and promote economic diversification. Reforms over the past five years have improved macroeconomic management and public sector governance, and there is a focus on strengthening the non-oil economy and promoting economic diversification. However, critics argue that more needs to be done to reduce poverty and inequality, particularly in the education sector, which was devastated by the country's civil war.

Angola's education system suffers from a lack of infrastructure, with many schools lacking basic amenities such as windows, doors, and toilets. The system is also plagued by overcrowding, with too many pupils for the available classrooms. The government has promised improvements, including the construction of new schools and the distribution of books to secondary schools. However, critics argue that more needs to be done, especially in terms of increasing investment in the education sector.

Food insecurity

Angola is facing a severe food insecurity crisis, driven by multiple interconnected factors. Firstly, the country is experiencing the worst drought in four decades, with southern provinces such as Huila, Cunene, and Namibe facing five consecutive years of drought. This has led to poor harvests, depleted reserves, and the loss of livelihoods and livestock for many Angolans. The situation is further exacerbated by rising food prices, which have been influenced by the economic crisis since 2014, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The impact of these factors is evident in the numbers. According to a food insecurity analysis, around 1.58 million people in Southern Angola faced high levels of acute food insecurity between October 2021 and March 2022. Of these, 43% were in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 15% in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Many of those still able to meet their minimum food requirements are doing so through crisis coping strategies such as skipping meals, borrowing, and reducing food quantities.

The lack of access to safe water and sanitation in rural communities in the south is another critical factor contributing to food insecurity and malnutrition. Water-borne diseases are prevalent, and over 60% of the population in some villages consumes water from unsafe sources. The drought has also impacted livestock production, with 75% of households reporting partial loss of livestock due to a lack of fodder and the outbreak of diseases like foot and mouth.

The situation is particularly dire for children. In 2022, it was projected that 400,000 children would be acutely malnourished, with global acute malnutrition rates in some provinces surpassing emergency thresholds of 15%. However, there is a shortage of therapeutic feeding supplies due to supply chain disruptions, which may take months to resolve.

The future outlook suggests that Angola's food insecurity challenges may persist and even worsen. Droughts and agricultural droughts are predicted to increase due to climate change, and there is a pressing need to build resilience and adapt to these changing conditions.

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