America's Afghan Conundrum: Revisiting War-Torn Past Or Forging A New Path?

The United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 has been described as a fiasco and a debacle, with parallels drawn to the fall of Saigon in 1975. The Taliban's takeover of the country has raised concerns about the future of Afghan citizens, particularly women and girls, and the potential for Afghanistan to once again become a base for global terrorism. The withdrawal has also been criticised as a fumble by President Joe Biden, who defended his decision, stating that the US counterterrorism mission in Afghanistan was complete.

The US's 20-year war in Afghanistan

The war was triggered by the September 11 attacks, and consisted of three phases. The first phase was brief, lasting just two months, and involved toppling the Taliban regime. The second phase, from 2002 until 2008, was marked by a US strategy of defeating the Taliban and rebuilding core institutions of the Afghan state. The third phase, a turn to classic counterinsurgency doctrine, began in 2008 and was accelerated by Barack Obama's decision to temporarily increase the US troop presence in Afghanistan.

The war ended in 2021, when the US completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan. The last US aircraft took off from Kabul airport carrying all remaining American troops and diplomats.

The Taliban's resurgence

The Withdrawal of U.S. and NATO Troops

The decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan was made by President Joe Biden, honouring an agreement negotiated by the Trump administration with the Taliban. The agreement stipulated that all U.S. forces would leave Afghanistan by May 1, 2021. Biden extended the deadline to September but ultimately decided to stick to the agreement despite concerns from military advisers. The withdrawal left a security vacuum that the Taliban was quick to exploit.

Failure of Nation-Building Efforts

The United States and its allies spent trillions of dollars and two decades attempting to build a centralized state in Afghanistan, but their efforts ultimately failed. The Afghan government, led by President Ashraf Ghani, was plagued by corruption, and the Afghan National Security Forces, despite receiving extensive training and equipment from the U.S., lacked the will to fight the Taliban. As a result, they offered little resistance as the Taliban advanced, with many soldiers surrendering or fleeing without putting up a fight.

Support from Pakistan

Pakistan has long been accused of supporting the Taliban, seeing them as a crucial ally in their competition with India for influence in Afghanistan. Pakistan's security establishment cheered the Taliban's military gains and funnelled support to the group for decades. However, some analysts argue that Pakistan may come to regret this decision as a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan could lead to increased extremism within Pakistan and further isolate the country on the world stage.

Taliban's Strategic Planning

Impact of the Resurgence

The resurgence of the Taliban has had significant consequences. It has resulted in a security vacuum, leading to fears that Afghanistan could once again become a safe haven for terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The Taliban's strict interpretation of Islamic law and their treatment of women and minorities have also raised concerns about human rights abuses and the erosion of the gains made in education, healthcare, and women's rights over the past two decades.

The evacuation of US citizens and Afghan refugees

The US has a long history of resettling refugees, and broad bipartisan support for it in Congress. However, the Trump administration decimated the program, and the Biden administration has had to rebuild the systems and support for resettling refugees.

The Biden administration has taken several steps to facilitate the evacuation and resettlement of US citizens and Afghan refugees. These include:

• Authorizing 6,000 US troops to deploy to Afghanistan to assist in the evacuation
• Evacuating US citizens, permanent residents, and Afghans at risk through Operation Allies Welcome
• Providing funding for resettlement efforts and evacuations through the Department of Homeland Security
• Creating the Afghan Placement Assistance Program to provide initial relocation support services for Afghan parolees
• Increasing staffing and waiving application fees for Afghan evacuees
• Passing legislation to include more Afghans under the Priority 2 designation, which grants access to the US Refugee Admissions Program
• Working with other governments and the Taliban to secure safe passage for those who wish to leave Afghanistan

The collapse of the Afghan government and military

The US spent over two decades and trillions of dollars building up the Afghan military, but it collapsed within days as the Taliban took control of the country. The Afghan military was modelled on the US military and was meant to be a robust and independent fighting force. However, it was ill-suited to the war at hand. The formal chain of command clashed with family and tribal loyalties, leading to endemic corruption. Equipment was siphoned off or sold, and soldiers went unpaid, hungry, and without necessary supplies.

The US decision to withdraw its troops was the final blow. The Afghan military was heavily reliant on US support for airpower, intelligence, logistics, and other vital functions. Once US troops and contractors pulled out, the Afghan military lost the ability to function, and its morale plummeted. Many Afghan soldiers cut deals with the Taliban, surrendered, or deserted.

The collapse was also due in part to the Taliban's strategy. They made deals with local militias and government officials, offering money in exchange for government forces to hand over their weapons. They also took advantage of the uncertainty caused by the US-Taliban agreement, spreading propaganda and misinformation.

Additionally, the Afghan government itself was corrupt and ineffective, with a lack of cohesion and poor leadership. The US had attempted to build a highly centralised state, but this approach clashed with important tribes and clans, creating vacuums that the Taliban was able to exploit.

In the end, the Afghan military was unable to sustain itself, and the government collapsed, leading to the Taliban's takeover of the country.

The future of Afghanistan

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan has left the country's future uncertain. While the Taliban have pledged to form an "open, inclusive Islamic government", there are concerns about a return to the harsh interpretation of Islamic law that characterised their previous rule from 1996 to 2001. This period was marked by a ban on female education and employment, severe restrictions on civil liberties, and the harbouring of international terrorist groups.

The Taliban's recent takeover has been swift and largely bloodless, with little resistance from the Afghan army. This is despite the US spending trillions of dollars and two decades training and equipping the Afghan military. The ease of the Taliban's victory can be attributed to several factors, including the Taliban's agility in striking deals with local militias, the corruption and centralisation of the Afghan government, and the support of Pakistan.

The international community is in a difficult position, wanting to exercise a "moderating influence" on the Taliban while also recognising the reality of their rule. Aid and diplomatic recognition are potential levers to encourage a more moderate Taliban government, but their effectiveness is uncertain. Neighbours such as Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and China may be less inclined to pressure the Taliban and may even seek to strengthen ties.

The US, meanwhile, has emphasised its continued counterterrorism capabilities and commitment to evacuating remaining US citizens and vulnerable Afghans. President Biden has defended the US withdrawal, arguing that the counterterrorism mission in Afghanistan is complete and that it is not in America's national interest to remain engaged in the country's civil war.

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