Enduring Coalition Presence: Examining The Numbers In Afghanistan

The number of coalition forces in Afghanistan has changed over time. In 2002, there were approximately 7,000 troops in Afghanistan, including US Army Rangers, troops from the 10th Mountain Division, and US Marines. The number of troops peaked between 2010 and 2012 when the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) had roughly 130,000 troops across 400 military bases throughout Afghanistan. In 2007, 23,000 American troops were in Afghanistan, with others deployed as part of ISAF. The UK was the second-largest contributor to the mission, and in 2006, approximately 7,000 UK troops were in Afghanistan. In 2011, the number of US troops in Afghanistan was around 55,1000. The US and coalition forces began withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2021, and by July of that year, the US had completed over 95% of the withdrawal.

The US and coalition forces in Afghanistan have always taken the approach of in together, out together

The US and coalition forces in Afghanistan have always taken the approach of "in together, out together". This was evident in the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2021, which marked the end of a two-decade-long military presence in the country following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

The decision to withdraw was made by US President Joe Biden, who confirmed in April 2021 that it was "time for American troops to come home". This announcement was accompanied by a NATO commitment to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan as well, including those of the UK. By July 2021, nearly all UK forces had left the country.

The US-led coalition forces entered Afghanistan following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, aiming to ensure that the country would not become a safe haven for international terrorists again. This effort was known as Operation Enduring Freedom, which began on October 7, 2001, and involved several nations taking on Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

As part of this operation, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was established under a United Nations Security Council mandate. ISAF was a multinational military mission in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014, with the primary goal of training the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and assisting Afghanistan in rebuilding key government institutions. At its peak, ISAF had approximately 130,000 troops from 50 NATO and partner countries.

The US forces were also deployed under Operation Enduring Freedom, and their presence continued even after the ISAF mission ended in 2014. However, by 2021, the US had decided to end its military presence in Afghanistan, and NATO followed suit.

The withdrawal of international military forces from Afghanistan was not without challenges. Violence escalated in the country, with the Taliban launching a major offensive against the ANSF. There were also concerns about the capabilities and morale of the ANSF, as they struggled to hold their ground against the Taliban.

Despite these challenges, the US and its allies remained committed to building a new relationship with Afghanistan based on support for the Afghan government, the peace process, and the ANSF. However, the peace talks made little progress, and international attempts to bring the Taliban and the Afghan government together failed.

In conclusion, the US and coalition forces in Afghanistan have consistently demonstrated their unity and solidarity by adhering to the "in together, out together" approach. This was evident in their joint entry into Afghanistan following the 9/11 attacks and their subsequent withdrawal two decades later, despite the ongoing challenges in the country.

The US and its allies believe that the original objectives of the campaign in Afghanistan have been achieved

The coalition forces' invasion of Afghanistan was triggered by the September 11 attacks, which were masterminded by al-Qaeda. The US demanded that the Taliban government extradite Osama bin Laden, the founder of al-Qaeda, and also expel al-Qaeda militants from Afghanistan. The Taliban declined to extradite bin Laden and further ignored demands to shut down terrorist bases or extradite other suspected terrorists. In response, the US launched Operation Enduring Freedom on 7 October 2001, alongside the UK. The two countries were later joined by a large multinational force, including Afghanistan's local Northern Alliance.

The invasion effort made rapid progress for the next two months as the coalition captured Kabul on November 13 and toppled the Taliban by 17 December, after which international military bases were set up near major cities across the country. However, most members of al-Qaeda and the Taliban were not captured. During the Battle of Tora Bora, several fighters, including Osama bin Laden, escaped into neighbouring Pakistan or retreated to remote regions deep within the Hindu Kush.

The US military presence in Afghanistan greatly bolstered the Northern Alliance, which had been locked in a losing fight with the Taliban during the Afghan Civil War. The US aimed to destroy al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban regime from power, but also sought to prevent the Northern Alliance from taking control of Afghanistan, believing the Alliance's rule would alienate the country's Pashtun majority.

The US will retain a counterterrorism presence in the region

The US has been engaged in counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In April 2021, President Biden confirmed the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by 31 August 2021, marking an end to America's longest war. However, the US has stated its intention to retain a counterterrorism presence in the region.

Counterterrorism Strategies

The US has outlined three core counterterrorism principles to address evolving terrorist threats:

• Adapting to Evolving Threats: Terrorist threats have morphed and metastasized since 9/11, and counterterrorism efforts must keep pace with these changes. This involves calibrating strategies to address current and future threats rather than those faced in the past.
• Setting Priorities and Allocating Resources: Terrorism is a serious threat, but it must be addressed within the context of broader national security challenges. This includes addressing a more aggressive China, cyber attacks, and pandemic diseases. Resources must be allocated accordingly.
• Emphasizing Agility and Partnerships: Counterterrorism requires a flexible and agile approach, utilizing a broad set of tools such as diplomacy, development, and prevention efforts. Partnerships with allies and local partners are crucial for effective counterterrorism, allowing for a more sustainable and nimble response to evolving threats.

Counterterrorism Presence in Afghanistan

The US has emphasized that it will maintain a counterterrorism presence in Afghanistan and the region, even without a military presence on the ground. This "over-the-horizon" approach will involve working with partners and utilizing tools commensurate with the threat. The US has established over-the-horizon options and continues to add to them to monitor and disrupt potential threats.

Regional Counterterrorism Efforts

The US has been working with allies and partners worldwide to counter terrorism. Through organizations like NATO, the US has been actively engaged in counterterrorism efforts, including through intelligence sharing, capacity building, and joint operations. Additionally, the US Department of State works with foreign government partners to build capabilities to prevent, detect, and respond to terrorist threats. This includes strengthening law enforcement, enhancing aviation and border security, countering terrorist financing, and countering violent extremism.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan does not signify an end to its counterterrorism efforts in the region. By retaining a counterterrorism presence and working closely with allies and partners, the US aims to adapt to evolving threats and maintain a flexible and agile approach to address them.

The US will continue to provide over the horizon support to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) from US assets based elsewhere in the region

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has brought the concept of "over-the-horizon" military support into sharp focus. This term refers to the ability to provide assistance to Afghanistan from outside the country's borders, either by hitting terrorist targets or by providing training, advice, and assistance to the Afghan security ministries and Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF).

The US has emphasised its ability to conduct over-the-horizon counterterrorism missions in Afghanistan, stating that it will act quickly and decisively if needed. However, the loss of bases in Afghanistan means that offensive capabilities are limited, and non-clandestine operations will rely on satellites, U-2s, unmanned aerial systems (UAS), and strategic airlift platforms. The US military has also lost significant intelligence capabilities in the country.

The US does have a number of air bases and facilities in the Middle East that can be used to hit targets in Afghanistan. These include bases in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Turkey, and Romania. Aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf can also provide fighter support. However, the distance and transient times required to reach Afghanistan from these locations will hamper the ability to strike targets before they move.

The US will also need to navigate complex geopolitical considerations when conducting over-the-horizon operations. Afghanistan's neighbours, such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, may be potential partners, but Russia's influence in the region cannot be ignored. Pakistan, a historical ally in the war on terror, is unlikely to host US forces or allow overflight access.

The US has stated that it will provide "over-the-horizon" support to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) even as diplomatic relations with the Taliban remain uncertain. This support will likely include intelligence sharing, logistical resupply, and the use of air assets to strike terrorist targets. However, the effectiveness of these efforts remains to be seen, and the ultimate success of the ANSF will depend on a range of factors, including the willingness of regional partners to cooperate with the US.

The withdrawal of international military forces is being conducted while violence escalates in the country

The withdrawal of international military forces from Afghanistan was conducted amidst escalating violence in the country. The Taliban had begun a major offensive against the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and had taken control of several strategic supply roads and border crossings. The Taliban's rapid advance had placed the capabilities and morale of the ANSF under increasing scrutiny, with thousands of government troops reported to have surrendered. The United States had been providing air support to the ANSF, but the speed at which the Taliban had taken ground had prompted concerns about the effectiveness of such assistance.

The withdrawal of international forces was carried out in the context of a deteriorating security situation. There had been a spate of targeted killings of prominent figures in civil society, the media, judiciary, and civil administration, particularly among women. The Taliban's offensive had resulted in the fall of dozens of districts across the country, with Afghan National Security Forces abandoning several districts without resistance. Hundreds of Afghan military personnel had fled across the country's borders, and thousands of civilians had been forced to flee their homes.

The withdrawal of international forces was carried out in accordance with the "in together, out together" approach, with the United States and its allies committing to withdrawing their forces from Afghanistan. The United States had completed more than 95% of the withdrawal process by early July 2021, and the remaining military presence was expected to end on August 31, 2021. The United Kingdom had also confirmed the withdrawal of nearly all its forces from the country by that time.

The implications of the withdrawal were significant. The peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government had made little progress, and international attempts to bring the two sides together had failed. The Taliban had rejected a power-sharing deal and insisted on the creation of a new Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan. The withdrawal of international forces was carried out amidst escalating violence, raising concerns about the potential for civil war.

The withdrawal of international forces had far-reaching consequences. The Taliban had made significant gains and showed little interest in ending their military offensive. In contrast, the Afghan government had attempted to court warlords and local militia leaders to form an anti-Taliban coalition. The Taliban's advancement had resulted in widespread reports of strict Sharia law being imposed, with religious scholars, tribal elders, female journalists, and human rights activists being targeted. There were increasing reports of war crimes, and questions remained about the Taliban's ties with international terrorist networks.

The situation in Afghanistan had raised concerns about the potential for civil war. Local militia groups and warlords were rising to prominence, and Islamic State, a strategic rival of the Taliban, maintained a presence in the east of the country. Neighbouring countries were also expected to intensify their struggle for influence, exacerbating longstanding ethnic divisions. The United States pointed to the significant military capabilities of the ANSF and committed to providing "over-the-horizon" support to Afghan forces from elsewhere in the region.

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