The Gathering Storm: Afghanistan On The Brink Of Civil War

Afghanistan's future remains uncertain following the withdrawal of US and allied troops from the country. The Taliban has been making rapid moves to regain power, seizing new territories and posing a significant threat to the Afghan government. With the Taliban's recent capture of Afghanistan's second-biggest city, Kandahar, and the fall of three provincial capitals after heavy fighting, the country seems to be heading towards a civil war. Experts fear that the withdrawal of NATO troops would result in a similar crisis to the one that occurred in the late 1980s when the Soviet forces left, leading to chaos and a civil war that claimed thousands of lives. The situation is further complicated by the potential resurgence of terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda, which previously found a base in the country during the Taliban's rule in the 1990s.

The Taliban's resurgence and sweep across Afghanistan

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan left a security vacuum that the Taliban was quick to exploit. With the loss of US air support, the Afghan security forces struggled to counter the Taliban's offensive. Years of training and investment in the Afghan security forces by the US failed to yield the desired results, with the forces unable to mount an effective defence against the Taliban.

The Taliban took advantage of the weakened Afghan government and security forces by intensifying their attacks and capturing more territories. They capitalised on the lack of US air support and the disorganisation within the Afghan forces to make rapid gains. The Taliban's strategy of terrorism and complete military takeover proved successful, and they were able to capture provincial capitals and key economic centres, gradually encircling Kabul.

The Afghan government, led by President Ashraf Ghani, was unable to mount an effective response to the Taliban's offensive. Ghani's government turned to warlords and influential tribal figures for support and encouraged locals to take up arms against the Taliban. However, experts warned that arming the local population could create problems in the long run, as these armed groups could change allegiance or turn against the government.

The Taliban's resurgence was also facilitated by their strong base in neighbouring Pakistan, where they enjoyed safe havens and support during their insurgency. The group's ability to regroup and launch attacks from across the border gave them a strategic advantage that ultimately contributed to their sweep across Afghanistan.

By August 2021, the Taliban had completed their sweep of Afghanistan's south, taking control of provincial capitals and encircling Kabul. The fall of Kabul marked the end of a two-decade-long US campaign in Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban to power.

The US's $2 trillion spending and troop withdrawal

The US spent $2 trillion in Afghanistan over 20 years. The bulk of this spending went into military operations, with nearly $1 trillion going into the Overseas Contingency Operations budget for the Department of Defence. The second-largest expense was the interest payments on the money borrowed to fund the war, which amounted to $530 billion.

The US also spent $88 billion on building, arming, and enabling the Afghan security forces. However, this strategy did not work, as the Taliban fighters were able to capture American-supplied equipment with ease.

The US spent more than $144 billion on Afghan reconstruction, which included improving security forces, governance, social and economic development, and combating illicit drugs.

The US government also disbursed almost $73 billion in military aid to Afghanistan between 2001 and 2020, which was almost 20 times the amount of Afghanistan's own military expenditure.

Despite the vast sums of money spent, the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan was chaotic and humiliating. The evacuation included some level of cooperation from the Taliban, who were keen to see the US withdrawal completed. The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan led to tens of thousands of Afghans and foreign nationals rushing to Kabul airport in a desperate attempt to flee the country.

The US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan was completed on August 30, 2021, bringing an end to America's longest war.

The Afghan government's struggle to maintain power

The Afghan government has struggled to maintain power in the face of a resurgent Taliban. Following the withdrawal of US and allied troops from the country, the Taliban swept across Afghanistan's rural areas, bringing more territories under their control. Afghan government forces, already stretched, broken, and tired, have found it difficult to repel Islamist militants without the support of NATO's crucial airpower.

The Taliban's recent gains include capturing key economic centres on the border with Iran and controlling two-thirds of the Afghan-Tajik border. The Taliban's offensive has intensified, and experts believe it is only a matter of time before they advance towards the capital, Kabul, despite US President Joe Biden's assurance that the Afghan army is capable of countering them.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has limited options to retain power. While the US has pledged continued support, Ghani's government has turned to warlords and influential tribal figures for support in forming anti-Taliban militias. This strategy is not without risks, as these armed groups could become a problem for the country in the future, changing allegiance or turning their backs on the government at any time.

The peace process following the 2020 US-Taliban deal in Qatar has failed to produce results, with intra-Afghan talks stalling. The Taliban's momentum has raised concerns about a potential resurgence of terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda, with British Defence Minister Ben Wallace warning that unstable nations like Afghanistan are "breeding grounds" for such organisations.

The role of warlords and arming citizens

The withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan has left the Afghan government in a vulnerable position, with the Taliban making rapid gains in recent months. In this context, the role of warlords and arming citizens becomes critical in the country's efforts to prevent a civil war or mitigate its impact.

Warlords in Afghanistan have historically held significant influence, and the current situation is no exception. With the Taliban's growing strength, former warlords are remobilizing their militias to defend against a possible Taliban takeover. These warlords, often ex-commanders of the mujahedeen, have considerable support from the local population, especially in the country's northern, western, and central regions. Their militias are often organized along ethnic lines, and they have clashed with government forces in some areas. While the Afghan government has sidelined many of these warlords, their influence and military power cannot be overlooked, especially with the departure of foreign troops.

Arming citizens is another strategy employed by the Afghan government to counter the Taliban. Afghan officials, including the defense minister, have called on citizens to join the fight. This has resulted in citizens taking up arms to support security forces against the Taliban. While this strategy has helped push back the Taliban in some areas, experts warn of potential dangers in the long term. Armed citizen groups could change allegiance or turn against the government if their interests are not served. Moreover, these groups have been accused of human rights violations and extrajudicial killings of civilians.

The presence of warlords and armed citizen groups poses a challenge to the central government's authority and credibility. It also risks undermining the institutional coherence of the Afghan security forces, leading to fragmentation along factional, tribal, and ethnic lines. This was evident in the early 1990s when similar dynamics contributed to the fall of the communist government and the onset of civil war.

To conclude, the role of warlords and arming citizens is a double-edged sword in Afghanistan. While it provides additional military power to counter the Taliban in the short term, it also introduces the risk of further destabilization and human rights abuses. The Afghan government must carefully manage these dynamics to prevent the country from descending into civil war.

The potential return of Al-Qaeda

Al-Qaeda's leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Kabul in July 2022. This incident highlighted the continued presence and comfort of Al-Qaeda in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Despite this, there are conflicting assessments about the current and future status of Al-Qaeda in the country.

Some reports suggest that Al-Qaeda is back to its old tactics in Afghanistan. They are said to be running militant training camps, sharing profits from the Taliban's illicit activities, and funnelling money to affiliated jihadist groups worldwide. Al-Qaeda is also reported to be profiting from gold and gem mines in the country, with the protection of Taliban-aligned warlords.

U.S. officials and intelligence assessments, however, paint a less alarming picture. They believe that Al-Qaeda is unlikely to revive in Afghanistan and that the group is at its weakest point in decades, especially since the loss of U.S. troops, their primary target. Additionally, the counterterrorism operations by the Taliban against ISIS-K have reportedly degraded their presence, and some ISIS-K leaders have fled the country.

The Taliban, on the other hand, have pledged to prevent international jihadists, including Al-Qaeda, from using Afghan soil to threaten the U.S. and its allies. However, there is scepticism about their ability or willingness to control Al-Qaeda's activities. The Taliban's history of providing sanctuary to Al-Qaeda, their integration of listed terrorist groups, and their protection of Al-Qaeda leaders, raise doubts about their commitments.

Analysts are also concerned that a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan could once again become a breeding ground for militant groups like Al-Qaeda, leading to instability and fuelling terrorism. The Taliban's advance and control of territories, coupled with the Afghan government's limited options and reliance on warlords, further contribute to these worries.

While the worst-case scenario of a swift Al-Qaeda expansion and attacks has not yet materialized, the dynamic nature of the situation means that the threat remains. The ability of Al-Qaeda to reorganize and the Taliban's true intentions are critical factors in determining the potential return and impact of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

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