Bolivia's President Resigns: What Led To This?

On November 10, 2019, Bolivian President Evo Morales resigned amid mounting pressure from the military and the public following weeks of deadly protests over allegations of election fraud. Morales, the country's first indigenous president, had served nearly 14 years in power and was seeking a fourth term in office. The unrest was triggered by a disputed 2019 general election in which Morales was initially declared the winner. However, allegations of vote-rigging and an audit by the Organization of American States (OAS) that identified serious irregularities in the election process led to growing calls for Morales's resignation. Despite initially agreeing to hold a new election, Morales ultimately stepped down, citing concerns for the safety of his supporters and the need to restore peace and stability in the country.

Bolivia's first indigenous president

Morales, a left-wing union leader and former coca farmer, oversaw an economic boom, a massive reduction in poverty, and strides in social equality, earning him high approval ratings and three consecutive election wins. Bolivia remains South America's poorest country after crisis-stricken Venezuela, but poverty fell from 60% in 2006 to 36% in 2017, while per capita GDP grew from $1,200 to over $3,350 in the same period.

Morales' supporters had hailed his rise as a victory for the country's indigenous communities, who make up at least 42% of the population. As president, Morales expanded freedoms for indigenous communities and legal protections for their cultures. However, his popularity began to wane in 2016 when he asked voters to approve the abolition of presidential term limits, which was rejected. Morales then turned to the constitutional court, which was dominated by his allies and ruled that term limits violated human rights, paving the way for him to run for a fourth term in 2019.

Morales' fourth election win was disputed, with allegations of fraud and irregularities. An audit by the Organization of American States (OAS) found significant irregularities, and observers from the European Union released a report with similar findings. The military and police of Bolivia, along with the Bolivian Workers' Center (COB), recommended that Morales resign.

Morales initially agreed to hold fresh elections, but the country's military chief, General Williams Kaliman, joined calls for his resignation. Kaliman urged Morales to step down "to allow for pacification and the maintaining of stability". Morales ultimately resigned, stating that he was doing so to protect the families of his political allies, after their homes were burned down.

Morales' supporters denounced his ousting as a right-wing coup, while his detractors celebrated the end of tyranny. The resignation left a power vacuum in Bolivia, with several high-ranking officials also stepping down.

Accusations of election fraud

Bolivia's President Evo Morales resigned in November 2019 amid mounting pressure from the military and the public following his disputed re-election. Morales' backers and foes blocked streets and highways across the country in protest over official election results that showed the leftist leader winning re-election without a runoff.

Morales' claim to have won a fourth term set off unrest that left three people dead and over 100 injured in clashes between his supporters and opponents. The election dispute centred on accusations of fraud, with the opposition alleging that Morales had manipulated the results of the October 2019 national elections.

On the night of the election, the results count was inexplicably stopped for 24 hours. When it resumed, Morales had widened his lead and the electoral tribunal declared that he had won by a narrow margin, avoiding a second-round runoff vote. The final result gave Morales a lead of slightly more than the 10-percentage-point margin he needed to win outright in the first round.

The opposition cried foul play, a claim that was supported by international observers. The Organization of American States (OAS), which monitored the elections, released a preliminary report on November 10, 2019, claiming that they had found evidence of "wide-scale data manipulation" and could not certify the result of the polls. The OAS alleged multiple irregularities, including failures in the chain of custody for ballots, alteration and forgery of electoral material, redirection of data to unauthorised servers, and data manipulation. They concluded that it was highly unlikely that Morales had secured the 10-percentage-point margin of victory needed to win outright and called for the election to be annulled.

The European Union's electoral observers also released a report detailing "numerous errors and irregularities" and described the process of tallying votes as "chaotic".

Morales denied any wrongdoing and claimed to be the victim of a "civic coup" organised by right-wing political forces and backed by the armed forces. However, he agreed to hold fresh elections after electoral observers refused to verify his victory.

In December 2019, the OAS issued its final report on the elections, reaffirming its preliminary findings and concluding that it had found "intentional manipulation" of electoral data and "serious irregularities" that made it impossible to validate the results.

In response to the accusations of fraud, Morales' supporters denounced his ousting as a right-wing coup. They argued that the event was a coup d'etat and that Morales had been forced to resign despite there being no evidence of electoral manipulation. Some analysts disputed the OAS's findings, criticising what they called the politicisation of the electoral observation process. They argued that the criticism of the election process was unfounded and that the OAS's statistical analysis of the election data was flawed.

The dispute over the legitimacy of Morales' re-election highlighted the deep political polarisation in Bolivia and the contentious nature of his long-standing rule.

Military intervention

On 10 November 2019, Bolivian President Evo Morales resigned after nearly 14 years in power. This came after 21 days of civil protests following a disputed election in which Morales was initially declared the winner. The election took place after Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, had successfully run for a fourth term, despite the Bolivian constitution limiting the number of terms to two.

The military played a key role in Morales' resignation. On 8 November, units of the Police Operations Tactical Unit (UTOP) tasked with defending Morales decided to abandon their posts and call for his resignation. Morales then ordered the military to maintain security, but officers rejected his orders. Fearing violent military suppression, all UTOP officers left their positions, leaving Morales vulnerable to protesters. Morales was forced into hiding, protected by a small group of his guard.

The head of Bolivia's armed forces, General Williams Kaliman, refused to suppress the violent demonstrations, stating that the military would "never confront the people". He also refused to deploy troops against civilians, citing concerns about punishment.

On 10 November, Morales announced that he would hold a new election. However, this was not enough to satisfy the military, with Kaliman making it clear that Morales' resignation was necessary to restore peace and stability. Later that day, Morales announced his resignation on television, stating that he was stepping down to "protect the families" of his political allies.

Morales and his supporters have described the events as a "coup d'etat". However, others have argued that it was a popular uprising. The Bolivian Congress, controlled by Morales' party, unanimously approved a bill annulling the results of the October election and preventing Morales from participating in the new elections.

Civil unrest

The election results were disputed, with Morales initially declared the winner by a large enough margin to avoid a second round of voting. However, there was a 24-hour lapse in releasing the results, fueling suspicions of vote-rigging. The final result gave Morales a slim victory, with just over a 10-percentage-point lead. This sparked weeks of civil protests, with both pro and anti-Morales groups taking to the streets. There were clashes between the two sides, as well as between protesters and the police, resulting in at least three deaths and hundreds of injuries. Protesters also targeted the homes of Morales' relatives and other regional governors, burning some buildings.

The Organization of American States (OAS) conducted an audit of the election and, on November 10, released a preliminary report claiming they had found sufficient evidence of election fraud to warrant new elections. The military and police of Bolivia also called on Morales to resign, with the head of the armed forces, General Williams Kaliman, urging Morales to step down "to allow for pacification and the maintaining of stability".

Morales initially agreed to hold fresh elections, but this was not enough to quell the unrest. On November 10, Morales announced his resignation, stating that he was stepping down to protect the families of his political allies, some of whom had received threats. He left the country and was granted asylum in Mexico.

The resignation of Morales left a power vacuum, with the vice president and other top officials also resigning. Opposition senator Jeanine Áñez assumed the role of interim president, a decision that was controversial as it was made without the required quorum due to a boycott by Morales' party.

The end of the pink tide

The "pink tide" refers to a political wave in Latin America throughout the 21st century, characterised by a turn towards left-wing governments. The term "pink tide" is thought to have been coined by a New York Times reporter in Montevideo, Larry Rohter, who described the 2004 election of Uruguay's president, Tabaré Vázquez, as "not so much a red tide... as a pink one".

The pink tide saw a move towards more economically and socially progressive policies in Latin America, with governments referred to as "left-leaning", "left-of-centre", and "radical social-democratic".

By 2010, leftist governments were in power in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela, with Peru joining in 2011. However, the tide began to turn in 2012, with the impeachment of Paraguay's leftist president, Fernando Lugo, and the election of a right-wing successor.

In 2015, Mauricio Macri was elected president of Argentina, becoming the country's first democratically elected right-wing president in nearly a century. This was followed by the impeachment of Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff in 2016, and the election of conservative Michel Temer.

In Bolivia, the leftist Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party, led by Evo Morales, had been in power since 2006. Morales, the country's first indigenous president, oversaw an economic boom, a massive reduction in poverty, and strides in social equality, earning him three consecutive election wins. However, his relationship with the public began to sour in 2016, when he asked voters to approve the abolition of presidential term limits. Voters rejected this proposal, but Morales turned to the Constitutional Tribunal, which was dominated by his allies and ruled that term limits violated human rights, allowing Morales to run for a fourth term in 2019.

The 2019 Bolivian general election was disputed, with allegations of election fraud. Auditors and electoral observers found irregularities with the poll, and the Organization of American States (OAS) concluded that there was sufficient evidence of election fraud to warrant new elections. There were also protests over Morales's election win, with violent clashes between pro-Morales groups and opposition protesters.

Morales initially agreed to hold fresh elections, but on November 10, 2019, he resigned after the military called for him to step down. The head of the army, General Williams Kaliman, urged Morales to resign "to allow for pacification and the maintaining of stability". Morales said he was resigning to protect the families of his political allies and to prevent further bloodshed, fulfilling his “obligation, as indigenous president and president of all Bolivians, to seek peace.”

Morales's resignation left a power vacuum in Bolivia, with the vice-president and other top officials also stepping down. The opposition senator Jeanine Áñez assumed the role of interim president, but this was controversial as her appointment was made without a quorum due to a boycott by MAS.

The end of Morales's presidency in Bolivia can be seen as part of a broader shift away from left-wing governments in Latin America and a return to conservative rule. This shift has been attributed to various factors, including the end of the commodities boom, economic downturns, a decrease in social spending, and ongoing reliance on extractive industries.

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