What's Holding Jordan, Kuwait, And Bahrain Back From Full Democracies?

The following factors have been identified as contributing to the lack of full democracy in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain:

- The influence of oil wealth and regional conflicts.

- The persistence of autocratic regimes.

- The role of the state in the economy.

- The lack of a market-driven economy.

- The absence of a strong civil society.

- The impact of external support for Arab regimes.

The influence of oil and conflicts

The Arab world has been characterised by a deficit in democracy and political rights despite notable socio-economic development. This chapter explores the influence of oil and conflicts on the persistence of autocracy in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

Jordan

Jordan's political and economic development has been influenced by the interlocking influences of its consociational democracy, geopolitics, and regional conflicts. Jordan's consociational democracy, based on a power-sharing formula among the country's major religious communities, has been marred by the Arab-Israeli conflict and the presence of Palestinian refugees in the country. The country's democratic development has also been affected by the influence of great power politics and ensuing regional conflicts.

Jordan's polity scores have been consistently low, ranging from -10 to -1, since the inclusion of the West Bank in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in 1950. The country's democracy deficit can be attributed to the following factors:

• The influence of great power politics and ensuing regional conflicts, including the Arab-Israeli conflict and the presence of Palestinian refugees.
• The co-option of the elite/middle class by the monarchy, which has prevented the emergence of a strong and unified opposition.
• The influence of oil-rich countries in the region, which have supported the Jordanian regime financially.
• The persistence of autocratic tendencies in the country's political system, which has been characterised by the presence of emergency laws, martial law, and the suppression of civil society organisations and political parties.

Kuwait

Kuwait's political system is characterised by a strong executive branch, with the Emir of Kuwait as the head of state and commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The country's political development has been influenced by the discovery of oil in the 1950s and the subsequent influx of wealth, which has contributed to the persistence of autocracy.

Kuwait's polity scores have been consistently low, ranging from -7 to -1, since the country's independence in 1961. The country's democracy deficit can be attributed to the following factors:

• The influence of oil wealth, which has contributed to the persistence of autocracy and the concentration of power in the hands of the ruling family.
• The absence of a strong and unified opposition, due to the co-option of the elite/middle class by the ruling family.
• The influence of regional conflicts, including the Iran-Iraq War and the Gulf War, which have led to the strengthening of the ruling family's grip on power.

Bahrain

Bahrain's political system is characterised by a strong executive branch, with the King of Bahrain as the head of state. The country's political development has been influenced by the discovery of oil in the 1930s and the subsequent influx of wealth, which has contributed to the persistence of autocracy.

Bahrain's polity scores have been consistently low, ranging from -7 to -1, since the country's independence in 1971. The country's democracy deficit can be attributed to the following factors:

• The influence of oil wealth, which has contributed to the persistence of autocracy and the concentration of power in the hands of the ruling family.
• The absence of a strong and unified opposition, due to the co-option of the elite/middle class by the ruling family.
• The influence of regional conflicts, including the Iran-Iraq War and the Gulf War, which have led to the strengthening of the ruling family's grip on power.

The role of oil and conflicts

The Middle East has been described as a region with a "democracy deficit", despite its notable socio-economic development. The persistence of this deficit has been attributed to the influence of oil wealth and regional wars.

The Middle East is home to a large proportion of the world's oil reserves. This has been linked to the prevalence of autocratic regimes in the region, as oil wealth can prop up autocratic regimes and keep them in power for much longer than would be expected.

The Middle East has also been characterised by frequent regional wars, notably the Arab-Israeli conflict. This has been identified as another factor contributing to the democracy deficit in the region. Wars in the region have tended to lead to democratic transformation in other regions, but not in the Middle East.

Jordan has been described as a country with a "democracy deficit", despite its relatively high levels of economic development. This deficit has been attributed to the influence of oil wealth and regional wars.

Jordan is not an oil-rich country, but it has been affected by the oil wealth of its neighbouring countries. This has contributed to the persistence of autocratic regimes in Jordan, as oil wealth can prop up autocratic regimes and keep them in power for much longer than would be expected.

Jordan has also been affected by frequent regional wars, notably the Arab-Israeli conflict. This has been identified as another factor contributing to the democracy deficit in Jordan. Wars in the region have tended to lead to democratic transformation in other regions, but not in the Middle East.

Bahrain has been described as a country with a "democracy deficit", despite its relatively high levels of economic development. This deficit has been attributed to the influence of oil wealth and regional wars.

Bahrain is not an oil-rich country, but it has been affected by the oil wealth of its neighbouring countries. This has contributed to the persistence of autocratic regimes in Bahrain, as oil wealth can prop up autocratic regimes and keep them in power for much longer than would be expected.

Bahrain has also been affected by frequent regional wars, notably the Arab-Israeli conflict. This has been identified as another factor contributing to the democracy deficit in Bahrain. Wars in the region have tended to lead to democratic transformation in other regions, but not in the Middle East.

Kuwait has been described as a country with a "democracy deficit", despite its relatively high levels of economic development. This deficit has been attributed to the influence of oil wealth and regional wars.

Kuwait is an oil-rich country, and this has contributed to the persistence of autocratic regimes in Kuwait, as oil wealth can prop up autocratic regimes and keep them in power for much longer than would be expected.

Kuwait has also been affected by frequent regional wars, notably the Arab-Israeli conflict. This has been identified as another factor contributing to the democracy deficit in Kuwait. Wars in the region have tended to lead to democratic transformation in other regions, but not in the Middle East.

The Arab–Israeli conflict and foreign power interventions

The Arab-Israeli conflict has been a significant issue in the political development of many Middle Eastern countries, including Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The conflict has often been characterised as a struggle between the Arab world and Israel, with the former seeking to reclaim what they consider to be their rightful lands and the latter seeking to maintain their independence and security. This conflict has led to multiple major wars and ongoing tensions, with foreign powers often intervening to pursue their strategic interests in the region.

One of the key ways in which the Arab-Israeli conflict has impacted the political landscape of Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain is through the issue of Palestinian refugees. The conflict has resulted in a large number of Palestinians being displaced, with many seeking refuge in neighbouring countries. This has placed significant economic and social strain on these countries, and has also contributed to political instability, as the presence of large refugee populations can disrupt social cohesion and fuel ethnic and religious tensions.

Foreign power interventions have also played a significant role in shaping the political landscape of these countries. The United States, the Soviet Union, and various European powers have historically sought to exert influence in the region, often through financial aid, military support, and political alliances. While these interventions have sometimes contributed to stability, they have also often served to entrench authoritarian rule and impede democratic development.

In Jordan, for example, the country's strategic location and relative stability in a volatile region have made it a key recipient of foreign aid, particularly from the United States. This aid has often been contingent on Jordan maintaining a pro-Western stance and has thus limited the scope for democratic reform. Similarly, Kuwait's vast oil wealth has made it a key strategic interest for foreign powers, particularly the United States, which has at times intervened militarily, such as during the Gulf War, to protect its interests in the country.

Bahrain, meanwhile, has experienced significant political repression and human rights abuses, which have been enabled in part by the support of foreign powers such as Saudi Arabia and the United States. The Bahraini government has relied on external support to maintain its rule, particularly in the wake of the Arab Spring protests of 2011, which saw a widespread pro-democracy movement emerge in the country.

Overall, the Arab-Israeli conflict and foreign power interventions have significantly shaped the political development of Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. While these countries have made varying degrees of progress towards democracy, the ongoing tensions and external influences in the region have presented significant challenges to the establishment of full democracies.

The effects of great power politics and ensuing regional conflicts

The Middle East has been a hotbed of great power politics and regional conflicts for decades. The region's strategic location, energy resources, and ethnic and religious diversity have made it a focal point for global powers such as the United States, Russia, and China. These powers have sought to exert their influence in the region through various means, including military presence, economic investments, and diplomatic efforts.

The United States, as the dominant external power in the Middle East, has traditionally played a significant role in the region's security and political dynamics. However, in recent years, there has been a perception of US disengagement from the region, particularly under the Trump administration. This has created a power vacuum that other regional and external powers have sought to fill.

Russia, a traditional ally of Syria, has increased its military presence in the region, particularly in Syria, where it has supported the Assad regime. This has allowed Russia to expand its influence and project power in the Middle East.

China, another external power with growing interests in the region, has focused on economic engagement and investment through its Belt and Road Initiative. China's primary interest in the Middle East is energy security, as the region is a major supplier of oil and natural gas.

The competition and rivalry between these great powers have had significant effects on regional conflicts and stability. The US-Iran tensions, for example, have escalated due to conflicting interests and actions. The US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the re-imposition of sanctions have strained relations and led to increased tensions.

The Syrian civil war has also been influenced by the involvement of external powers, with Russia and Iran supporting the Assad regime, while the US and its allies have backed the opposition forces. This conflict has resulted in a prolonged humanitarian crisis and massive displacement of refugees.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has also been impacted by great power politics, with the United States and Russia taking opposing stances. The US has traditionally been a strong ally of Israel, while Russia has sought to balance its relations with both Israel and the Palestinians.

The competition between these powers has also affected the dynamics of other regional conflicts, such as the Yemen civil war and the Libya-Gulf conflict. The involvement of external powers has complicated the resolution of these conflicts and prolonged the suffering of the affected populations.

Overall, the effects of great power politics and regional conflicts in the Middle East have been significant, shaping the political, economic, and security landscape of the region. The competition between the US, Russia, and China has led to a complex web of alliances and rivalries, with each power seeking to advance its interests and influence in the region.

The impact of oil wealth and regional wars

Jordan

Jordan has been heavily influenced by the Arab-Israeli conflict, with the country's political and economic development being affected by the conflict and ensuing regional wars. Jordan's polity scores have been consistently low, with the country remaining within the worst percentile of autocracy from 1960 to 1984. The country's economy was also impacted, with the 1967 war resulting in the loss of the West Bank, which contributed around one-third of Jordan's GDP. This, along with the influx of Palestinian refugees, had a detrimental effect on Jordan's economy.

The country's political and economic fortunes were further impacted by the end of the oil boom in the 1980s, which led to a recession and rising unemployment. However, the country experienced some economic recovery in the 1990s, with remittances from Jordanian expatriates and aid from Gulf countries helping to stimulate the economy. However, Jordan's polity scores remained low, with the country's democratic practices being hindered by the influence of external powers and the country's political elite, who have co-opted the elite and middle class to maintain their grip on power.

Kuwait

Kuwait's economy and political landscape have been shaped by oil wealth, with the discovery of oil in the 1930s leading to rapid economic growth and the country becoming a rentier state. This has had a significant impact on the country's political system, with the country's rulers being able to maintain their grip on power due to the wealth generated by oil exports. The country's political system is also influenced by regional conflicts, with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 leading to a brief occupation and the country becoming a base for US-led coalition forces during the 2003 Iraq War.

Bahrain

Bahrain's economy and political system have also been influenced by oil wealth, with the country becoming a rentier state and the Al Khalifa royal family maintaining their grip on power. The country's political system is also influenced by regional conflicts, with the country experiencing protests during the Arab Spring in 2011 and a failed coup attempt in 2017 which was backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The country's political system is also influenced by its relationship with Iran, with the country experiencing protests in 2011 which were backed by Iran and led to a crackdown by the Bahraini government.

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