Bahrain's Turbulent Times: War Or Peace?

Bahrain is a small island nation in the Persian Gulf with a population of roughly 1.5 million people. The country is ruled by a hereditary monarchy and is a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Bahrain has a history of sectarian tensions between Sunni and Shia Muslims. Bahrain is the only GCC state with a Shia-majority population, and the country's politics have been unsettled since a 2011 uprising by a mostly Shia opposition to the Sunni-minority-led government.

In recent years, Bahrain has been closely aligned with Saudi Arabia, which has provided substantial financial support and helped to repress protests in 2011. Bahrain has also been building ties with Israel and, in 2020, signed agreements to normalise relations as part of the Abraham Accords.

Bahrain is a key strategic partner for the US in the region, with the US Navy's Fifth Fleet headquartered in the country. The US and Bahrain have a formal Defense Cooperation Agreement and Bahrain is the only Arab member of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a coalition aimed at protecting maritime commerce in the Red Sea.

While Bahrain has experienced relatively low-level unrest since 2014, several senior opposition leaders remain imprisoned.

Bahrain's relationship with Iran

Bahrain and Iran have had a tense relationship for decades, with Bahrain accusing Iran of supporting anti-government groups and attempting coups. Iran has also historically claimed Bahrain as a province, although this claim was dropped after a 1970 UN survey found that most Bahraini people preferred independence.

Bahrain is ruled by a Sunni-minority monarchy, while the country has a Shia majority population. In 2011, a mostly Shia opposition group led protests against the government, which were suppressed with the help of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Bahrain has since continued to accuse Iran of supporting terrorist groups and attempting to destabilise the country.

In 2016, Bahrain cut diplomatic ties with Iran after protesters in Iran attacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran. However, in 2023, Bahrain and Iran began taking steps to restore diplomatic ties, and a senior US diplomat predicted that this would happen "sometime soon".

Bahrain is home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, and the US has had a naval command presence in the country since 1948. In 2023, the US and Bahrain signed a security agreement, pledging to defend Bahrain from attacks. This agreement was seen as a template for other Gulf countries seeking stronger security commitments from the US.

Bahrain has also been building ties with Israel, signing agreements to normalise relations in 2020. However, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has complicated these relations, with Bahrain and Israel withdrawing their ambassadors in late 2023.

Overall, Bahrain's relationship with Iran has been marked by tension and mutual suspicion, with Bahrain closely aligning itself with Iran's regional rivals, particularly Saudi Arabia and the US.

The Bahraini uprising

The 2011 Bahraini uprising, also known as the 14 February uprising and Pearl uprising, was a series of anti-government protests in Bahrain led by the Shia-dominant and some Sunni minority Bahraini opposition from 2011 until 2014. The protests were inspired by the 2011 Arab Spring and protests in Tunisia and Egypt.

The Lead-up to the Protests

The protests began on February 14, 2011, with an anti-government "Day of Rage" inspired by the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia. One protester was killed, and the next day, another person died when police clashed with mourners at the protester's funeral.

The Protests

Protests continued daily through February and March in Manama and surrounding Shia neighbourhoods as Al Wefaq, the main opposition party, suspended its participation in Parliament. The government initially allowed protesters to occupy the Pearl Roundabout, a major landmark in the capital of Manama. However, they soon began using tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse the protests.

On March 14, 2011, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) announced that it would send troops, mainly from Saudi Arabia, to help contain the unrest. A day later, King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa declared martial law. Government troops surrounded Shia neighbourhoods and forcibly emptied Pearl Roundabout with tanks and machine guns. They also occupied Salmaniyah Hospital, another rallying point for the protesters, and arrested protest leaders. The crackdown continued from mid-March until June 1, when martial law was lifted.

The Aftermath

Smaller weekly protests took place throughout the summer, and courts sentenced many activists to prison. At the end of June, Saudi Arabia announced it would withdraw most of its troops, and the king announced a National Dialogue, which prompted the government to begin various social initiatives.

In November 2011, an independent commission convened by the king concluded that government forces had used "excessive force" and torture to control the protest movement, an accusation that sparked large and violent protests. Protests erupted again in April 2012, when the Formula One Grand Prix took place despite the government crackdown. Another round of demonstrations began in June, when the government arrested a prominent activist and later sentenced him to three years in jail for his dissent.

In September 2012, seven protestors received life sentences for organizing opposition to the government. On September 28 and 29, thousands of Shia protestors marched in villages near Manama to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa. On October 2, protesters clashed with riot police after the funeral of a pro-democracy protester who died in prison. A few weeks later, the interior ministry banned all protests and threatened legal action against groups allegedly supporting anti-government demonstrations.

The Bahraini government's relationship with the US

Bahrain and the United States have been allies since Bahrain's independence in 1971, with close economic and geopolitical interests shared between the two countries. The US has had a naval base in Bahrain since 1947, when it was still a British colony, and the relationship was formalised when Bahrain became independent. The US embassy in Manama was opened in 1971, and the Bahraini embassy in Washington, D.C., opened in 1977.

In 1991, the two countries signed a Defense Cooperation Agreement, granting US forces access to Bahraini facilities and ensuring the right to pre-position material for future crises. Bahrain is the headquarters of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, and the US designated Bahrain as a Major non-NATO ally in 2002. The two countries also signed a Free Trade Agreement in 2004, which was implemented in 2006.

In 2020, the US brokered the Abraham Accords between Bahrain and Israel, making Bahrain the fourth Arab state to recognise Israel. The US and Bahrain also signed a strategic security and economic agreement in 2023 to expand defence and intelligence collaboration.

The US provides Bahrain with military equipment and security assistance credits, and Bahrain's small national budget allows for modest purchases of US major combat systems. Bahrain's armed forces consist of about 10,000 active-duty personnel, and the US has about 8,000 military personnel and civilian employees stationed in Bahrain.

The US has also criticised Bahrain for its human rights practices, particularly its treatment of the Shia opposition and the imprisonment of prisoners of conscience. However, the US has maintained that Bahrain is making progress in combating human trafficking and improving its human rights record.

The Bahraini government's relationship with Saudi Arabia

The Kingdom of Bahrain is a small island nation in West Asia, situated in the Persian Gulf. It is connected to Saudi Arabia by the 15.5-mile-long King Fahd Causeway. Bahrain has a population of 1.5 million people, with a little over half being Bahraini citizens. The country is ruled by a hereditary monarchy, the Al Khalifa ruling family, and is a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Bahrain has close and friendly relations with Saudi Arabia. Both countries are Sunni monarchies with a mixed Sunni and Shiite population. During the Arab Spring, the Bahraini monarchy invited Saudi forces to suppress a rebellion, marking the first case of the GCC agreement on defence being used internally. Saudi Arabia was also concerned about preventing the spread of discontent within its own territories.

Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have a history of military cooperation. During the Persian Gulf War (1990-1991), Bahrain made its port and airfields available to coalition forces, which included Saudi Arabia, that drove Iraqi forces out of Kuwait. In 2011, Saudi Arabia, along with other GCC countries, sent troops and police to Bahrain to crush an uprising against the Bahraini government.

The construction of the King Fahd Causeway has strengthened bilateral relations and has helped both countries economically and politically. Bahrain has generally followed Saudi Arabia's lead in most foreign policy decisions and has received substantial financial support from the country. Bahrain also closely aligns with Saudi Arabia in terms of foreign policy, particularly regarding their shared concerns about Iranian influence in the region.

In recent years, Bahrain has been financially dependent on Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In 2018, these countries, along with Kuwait, offered Bahrain a five-year, $10 billion aid package in exchange for implementing fiscal reforms.

The Bahraini government's relationship with Israel

Bahrain and Israel have had a complex relationship since Bahrain achieved its independence in 1971. In the following years, Bahrain joined the Arab League boycott of Israel, and relations remained tense. However, in 2005, Bahrain abandoned its boycott of Israel in exchange for a free trade agreement with the United States.

In the following years, Bahrain and Israel began to normalise their relationship. In 2011, Wikileaks revealed some of the hidden relations between Bahraini and Israeli officials. In 2016, Bahrain hosted a ceremony to mark the Jewish Hanukkah holiday, and in 2017, the King of Bahrain denounced the Arab League boycott of Israel, stating that citizens were entitled to visit Israel.

In 2018, Bahrain recognised Israel's right to exist, and in 2019, the two countries continued to build relations, with meetings between their foreign ministers and an invitation for Israeli media to cover an economic peace workshop in Bahrain.

In 2020, Bahrain and Israel agreed to establish full diplomatic relations, with the signing of the Abraham Accords: Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations. This agreement was seen as a step towards normalising Israel's relationship with the rest of the Arab world, and Bahrain became the fourth Arab country to recognise Israel.

However, in 2023, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas caused a strain in relations. Bahrain recalled its ambassador to Israel and suspended all economic relations, citing its support for the Palestinian cause. While Israel claimed that relations were stable, this development demonstrates the complex and evolving nature of the relationship between the two countries.

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