Belize's Emissions: A Troubling Paradox

Belize's greenhouse gas emissions are high due to a variety of factors, including fossil fuel consumption, agricultural activities, and population size. In 2020, Belize's greenhouse gas emissions were recorded at 1,573.32 kt of CO2 equivalent, with a slight decline to 1,572.55 kt in 2021. The country's emissions primarily come from the burning of fossil fuels, which is responsible for a significant portion of global greenhouse gas emissions. Belize has also committed to reducing emissions and achieving net-zero global emissions by 2050, with a focus on the agriculture and renewable energy sectors.

Fossil fuel consumption

Belize's fossil fuel consumption is a significant contributor to its high greenhouse gas emissions. While the country has made strides in renewable energy, particularly in the electrical sector, fossil fuels remain a dominant energy source. In 2016, Belize's fossil fuel CO2 emissions were 1,114,105 tons, with a per capita emission of 3.03 tons. Oil is the primary contributor to these emissions, accounting for 99.99% of greenhouse gases in the country as of 2019.

The transport sector in Belize relies heavily on fossil fuels, and this contributes to the country's high emissions levels. Unlike some other countries, Belize does not produce, consume, import, or export coal, and it has no coal reserves. However, the country does produce crude oil, drawing from its proven reserves. In 2018, Belize produced 2,000 barrels of crude oil per day, and this exploitation of crude oil has come at a high environmental cost, threatening the livelihoods of those in the agricultural and tourism sectors.

Belize consumed 4,000 barrels of refined petroleum products per day in 2016, and Mexico is the primary source of imported petroleum products. The country's petroleum industry is regulated by various entities, including the Petroleum Act and Regulations, the Geology and Petroleum Department, and the Department of the Environment. Despite these regulatory measures, the burning of fossil fuels continues to contribute significantly to Belize's greenhouse gas emissions.

Belize has taken steps to address its emissions by submitting a revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2021. The country has committed to a long-term strategy aimed at achieving net-zero global emissions by 2050. As part of this strategy, Belize intends to increase its use of renewable energy to 85% by 2030, focusing on hydropower and biomass. These efforts demonstrate the country's recognition of the need to transition away from fossil fuels and towards more sustainable energy sources.

Population size

Belize's population size is a factor in its high greenhouse gas emissions. With a population of around 410,000 people, Belize is the least populated country in Central America. However, it has the second-highest population growth rate in the region, estimated at 1.87% per year in 2018. This growth rate contributes to the country's emissions, as a larger population requires more energy, transportation, and resources, which can lead to increased fossil fuel consumption and emissions.

Belize's population is concentrated in urban and rural areas, with about one-fourth of the population living in Belize City, the principal port and commercial centre. The population density is low, at 18 people per square kilometre, and the median age is 26 years. The country's population is multiracial, with approximately 52.9% of Mestizo or Latino descent, 24.9-25.9% Creole, 10.6-11.3% Maya, and 6.1% Garifuna. The remaining population includes European, East Indian, Chinese, Middle Eastern, and North American groups.

The population's energy consumption and economic activities contribute to Belize's greenhouse gas emissions. Belize has a small, private enterprise economy based primarily on agriculture, agro-based industries, and merchandising, with tourism and construction becoming increasingly important. The country's energy sector relies on fossil fuels, with coal, oil, and gas contributing to emissions. Belize's per capita emissions are relatively low compared to other countries, but the year-on-year change in emissions is positive, indicating an increase in overall emissions.

The Belizean government has recognised the importance of addressing greenhouse gas emissions and has committed to developing a long-term strategy for reducing emissions and achieving net-zero global emissions by 2050. The country has strengthened its targets for the agriculture, forestry, and renewable energy sectors, aiming for a 63% increase in greenhouse gas removals. These efforts are crucial for mitigating the impact of population growth on emissions and promoting sustainable development in Belize.

Energy intensity

Belize's National Sustainable Energy Strategy 2012-2033 set a goal of increasing GDP energy intensity by 30%. This may seem counterintuitive, as one would typically associate higher energy intensity with higher greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is important to note that energy intensity is just one factor influencing a country's emissions. Other factors include the energy mix, population size, and economic output.

Belize's strategy also includes targets to shift towards renewable energy sources and reduce fossil fuel imports. In particular, it aims to generate over 50% of electricity from renewable sources, increase hydropower capacity, and supply electricity from municipal solid waste. These initiatives are designed to reduce the country's reliance on fossil fuels, which are a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.

Additionally, Belize has committed to a long-term strategy of achieving net-zero global emissions by 2050. This includes a 63% increase in greenhouse gas removals in the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector and increasing the number of renewable energy projects connected to the grid. These efforts demonstrate Belize's recognition of the importance of transitioning to lower-carbon energy sources to reduce emissions.

While energy intensity is a useful metric for monitoring a country's progress in reducing emissions, it should be considered alongside other factors such as carbon intensity, which measures the amount of CO2 emitted per unit of energy. By focusing on both reducing energy consumption and transitioning to lower-carbon energy sources, Belize can work towards lowering its greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change.

Agriculture, forestry, land use

Belize has a developing free-market economy, and only a small proportion of its land is used for agriculture. However, the agricultural sector employs about one-fifth of the population. Most farms are smaller than 100 acres (40 hectares), and many of them are milpas (temporary forest clearings). Traditional shifting cultivation is often practised due to the nutrient-poor soils of the lowlands. The remaining farms or plantations are devoted to the raising of crops for export, such as sugarcane, citrus fruits, bananas, corn, kidney beans, rice, roots and tubers, red kidney beans, and vegetables.

Belize's economy was once based on commercial logging and the export of timber, but by 1960, the combined value of sugar and citrus exports had exceeded that of timber. In recent decades, due to the destruction of forests and price fluctuations of traditional export products, Belize has opened its economy to non-traditional agricultural products and manufacturing activities.

Belize's forests are characterised by tall, highly diverse broadleaf forests, pine forests, low scrubby woodland areas, and abundant mangroves. The country faces environmental issues such as deforestation and the management of forest resources. Thousands of hectares of broadleaf forest have been cleared for agriculture and other purposes. However, it is believed that the amount of deforestation in Belize is much less than in other rainforest countries.

Belize has taken steps to address these issues by strengthening its targets in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, with a 63% increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) removals. The country has also extended the adaptation coverage to the Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) and health policy sectors.

Renewable energy

Belize has been investing in domestically produced energy to strengthen and stabilize its energy sector over the last 20 years. The country has been developing sustainable energy project policies, focusing on expanding biomass power and solar-based distributed power systems. The government has shown interest in renewable energy, with investments in hydropower, biomass, solar, and liquified petroleum gas (LPG).

Belize's leading energy subsectors are looking to expand biomass and small-scale solar, as well as create new opportunities in electric vehicles, large-scale solar, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and waste-to-energy. The government is also pursuing an initiative to convert sargassum seaweed to electricity and is seeking to promote additional similar projects.

Belize's solar energy use is currently limited to off-grid use, primarily in remote areas by residential consumers, hotels, and resorts. However, the government intends to encourage investment in utility solar-energy facilities. On a smaller scale, the government has also installed solar microgrids and solar-powered streetlights in rural communities not yet connected to the national grid.

In 2019, 58.6% of electrical production in Belize was renewable, making it the top renewable energy producer in the Caribbean by percentage produced. The national electricity grid is primarily supplied by local Independent Power Producers (IPP) utilizing hydroelectricity, biomass, petroleum, and solar energy sources.

Belize has committed to developing a long-term strategy aligned with achieving net-zero global emissions by 2050. The country has strengthened its target in the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, with a 63% increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) removals, and in renewable energy, increasing the projects connected to the grid.

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