The Conflict Over Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenia And Azerbaijan's Battle

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh is an ethnic and territorial dispute that has its roots in the late 1980s and has resulted in two wars and thousands of deaths. The region is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has been predominantly inhabited by ethnic Armenians, who established a breakaway republic. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, resulting in occupation and displacement on both sides. Despite numerous ceasefires and negotiations, tensions have persisted, with the latest major escalation occurring in 2020, leading to thousands of casualties and a significant Azerbaijani victory. The situation remains tense, with ongoing border tensions and efforts to resolve the conflict through negotiation and mediation.

Ethnic and territorial conflict

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh is an ethnic and territorial conflict that has its roots in the ethnic and religious differences between the two groups and the region's history.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a landlocked mountainous area in the Caucasus region, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians, who are predominantly Christian. Armenians claim a long historical presence in the area, dating back several centuries before Christ. On the other hand, Azerbaijan, whose inhabitants are mostly Muslim, also claims deep historical ties to the region, which has been under the influence of various empires over the centuries, including the Persians, Turks, and Russians.

Under the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh became an autonomous region within the Soviet republic of Azerbaijan, known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO). However, as the Soviet Union began to collapse in the late 1980s, tensions between the two ethnic groups escalated. In 1988, ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh demanded the transfer of the region from Soviet Azerbaijan to Armenia, citing self-determination laws in the Soviet constitution. This led to a series of pogroms against Armenians across Azerbaijan and triggered the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994).

During the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, Armenian forces gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent districts, resulting in the displacement of over a million people, mostly Azeris. A Russian-brokered ceasefire, known as the Bishkek Protocol, ended the war in 1994, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent, with a self-proclaimed government in Stepanakert closely tied to Armenia. However, this did not resolve the underlying ethnic and territorial conflict, and both sides continued to accuse each other of ceasefire violations and cross-border attacks.

In 2020, after decades of intermittent skirmishes and rising tensions, Azerbaijan launched a military operation, known as the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, which resulted in a significant Azerbaijani victory. Azerbaijan recaptured the seven districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and about a third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself, leading to the displacement of tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians. A ceasefire agreement, mediated by Russia, was signed in November 2020, but it did not resolve the underlying ethnic tensions and territorial disputes.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched another military offensive, leading to the dissolution of the ethnic Armenian enclave in Nagorno-Karabakh on January 1, 2024. Over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled to Armenia, and Azerbaijan began the process of "reintegrating" the region into its territory. The conflict has resulted in a ongoing refugee crisis, with Armenia struggling to accommodate the influx of displaced individuals, and tensions remain high between the two countries.

Azerbaijan's blockade of the Lachin corridor

The blockade was widely condemned by the international community, including human rights organizations such as Amnesty International, which called for immediate action to end the blockade and alleviate the suffering of those impacted. The United Nations Security Council also addressed the issue, with speakers urging the reopening of the corridor to allow the delivery of humanitarian aid and calling on both Armenia and Azerbaijan to normalize relations and respect the commitments made under the 2020 trilateral agreement.

During the blockade, Azerbaijan set up a checkpoint in the corridor, alleging that it was necessary to prevent the illegal transport of military supplies and natural resources. These claims were denied by Armenian authorities, who asserted that the blockade violated the ceasefire agreement that ended the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. The checkpoint and blockade had severe consequences, with reports of shortages, unemployment, and school closures in the region. Azerbaijan also cut off the gas supply to Nagorno-Karabakh, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

The blockade had a particularly harsh impact on vulnerable groups, including women, older people, and people with disabilities, who faced challenges in accessing essential goods and services. The lack of access to medicine and healthcare was especially critical, with reports of shortages of medical supplies and fuel needed for outpatient care. The situation was dire for those with chronic health conditions, and many residents were left without adequate healthcare services.

The blockade also impacted the import of food, leading to the implementation of a rationing system. Fresh fruits and vegetables became scarce, and long queues formed for milk and eggs when they were available. The food shortages had a detrimental effect on the health of women and children, with healthcare professionals reporting a significant increase in cases of immunodeficiency, anaemia, and worsened diabetes conditions.

The blockade of the Lachin corridor by Azerbaijan had far-reaching consequences for the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, endangering their lives and well-being. It resulted in severe shortages, disrupted access to essential goods and services, and caused a deteriorating humanitarian crisis. The international community's intervention was crucial in highlighting the situation and calling for immediate action to alleviate the suffering of those impacted.

The role of Russian peacekeepers

Deployment of Russian Peacekeepers

In November 2020, following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, a ceasefire agreement was signed between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia. As part of this agreement, approximately 2,000 Russian soldiers were deployed as peacekeeping forces in the region, with a mandate of at least five years. The peacekeeping contingent, consisting of 1,960 servicemen, was led by Lieutenant General Rustam Muradov and headquartered near Stepanakert. They established observation posts along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin corridor, which is the main passage connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Tasks and Responsibilities

The Russian peacekeepers were tasked with monitoring compliance with the ceasefire agreement by both Armenia and Azerbaijan. They also assisted in finding and exchanging the bodies of fallen soldiers from both sides, in coordination with the International Committee of the Red Cross. Additionally, they conducted demining operations in the region to enhance safety and security.

Challenges and Controversies

There have also been instances where the peacekeepers were criticised for their inaction or failure to prevent violations of the ceasefire agreement. For instance, in December 2020, the peacekeepers were present when Azerbaijani forces captured the villages of Khtsaberd and Hin Tagher, and there were reports of ceasefire violations by Azerbaijan in 2022 and 2023, with the peacekeepers failing to intervene effectively.

The most significant criticism of the Russian peacekeepers came in September 2023, when they did not intervene to stop Azerbaijan's lightning offensive on Nagorno-Karabakh, which resulted in a mass exodus and the near-complete emptying of the region's Armenian population. This inaction raised questions about their ability or willingness to fulfil their mandate to ensure freedom of movement and security along the Lachin corridor, as stipulated in the trilateral ceasefire agreement.

Withdrawal of Russian Peacekeepers

In April 2024, the Russian peacekeepers began to withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh, leaving the region under the full control of Azerbaijan. This withdrawal was completed in June 2024, marking the end of the Russian peacekeeping presence in the region.

The use of drones in the conflict

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region involved the heavy use of drones. The drones played a significant role in the conflict and offered a clear view of how modern warfare is being transformed by the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Azerbaijan's use of drones gave them a significant advantage in the conflict and was crucial in determining the conflict's outcome. The drones were used for both reconnaissance and strike missions, targeting Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers and destroying tanks, artillery, and air defence systems. The use of drones allowed Azerbaijan to find, fix, track, and destroy targets with precise strikes far beyond the front lines. The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones, in particular, demonstrated the versatility of UAV platforms, providing identification and targeting data, as well as carrying smart, micro-guided munitions to destroy targets.

The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh showcased the increasing importance of using armed drones alongside other weapons and highly trained ground forces. It also demonstrated the devastating consequences of failing to do so in future conflicts. The use of drones provided a strategic advantage to Azerbaijan, enabling them to gain control over Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts.

The role of drones in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan highlighted the need for effective anti-drone capabilities and improved combat field craft. It underscored the importance of investing in developing and procuring effective anti-small-drone equipment and integrating them into tactical operations.

Overall, the use of drones in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was a pivotal aspect that contributed to Azerbaijan's success and shaped the future of modern warfare.

The displacement of refugees

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh has resulted in a large number of refugees and internally displaced people. The First Nagorno-Karabakh War led to the displacement of approximately 700,000 Azerbaijanis, including around 500,000 people from Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding regions. There were also expulsions of ethnic Armenians from Azerbaijan and ethnic Azerbaijanis from Armenia and Armenian-controlled areas. The conflict has resulted in a significant number of refugees and internally displaced persons, with Azerbaijan now having one of the highest numbers of internally displaced persons per capita in the world.

The most recent outbreak of violence in September 2023 resulted in a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, with over 100,000 people fleeing to Armenia. This sudden influx of refugees has placed a strain on Armenia, which is struggling to integrate and provide for these displaced people. They are facing uncertainty and poverty in exile, with many living in temporary shelters or unfinished houses. The Armenian government has made efforts to assist them by providing registration, shelter, and financial assistance, but the long-term prospects for these refugees remain uncertain.

The situation is further complicated by the history of the conflict, which dates back to the late 1980s and has resulted in multiple waves of displacement for some individuals. The conflict is deeply rooted in ethnic and territorial disputes, with both sides accusing the other of ethnic cleansing and pogroms. The international community has attempted to intervene and broker ceasefires, but these have been repeatedly violated, and a lasting peace agreement has yet to be reached.

The future of the refugees remains uncertain, and the potential for further conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan continues to loom. The Armenian government is facing challenges in providing for the basic needs of the displaced individuals, and there are concerns about social frictions and homelessness if adequate support is not provided. The integration of such a large number of refugees into Armenian society will be a complex and lengthy process, and the lack of a clear plan and sufficient resources could lead to further difficulties.

The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh itself is also precarious, with Azerbaijani officials stating their intention to reintegrate the region into their territory. The protection of ethnic Armenians who remain in the region is uncertain, and there are fears of arbitrary detention and torture if Azerbaijan gains control. The potential for further conflict and displacement remains a constant threat, and the international community's failure to achieve a peaceful resolution has had devastating consequences for the people of the region.

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