Bolivia's Upcoming Elections: Timing And What To Expect

Bolivia's most recent general election took place on 18 October 2020, after being postponed from 3 May 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The election saw Luis Arce of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party elected president in a landslide victory, winning 55% of the vote. The results superseded the disputed results of the October 2019 elections, which were annulled during a prolonged political crisis.

Bolivia's 2020 election

The 2020 election superseded the disputed results of the October 2019 elections, which were annulled during a prolonged political crisis. The 2019 election saw incumbent President Evo Morales declared the winner with 47.08% of the vote. This was greater than a ten-point margin over his nearest competitor, former president Carlos Mesa, and therefore enough for Morales to be announced as the winner without a run-off second-round vote. However, there were disputes over the transparency and legitimacy of the elections, which led to widespread protests in Bolivia. Morales pledged to respect the OAS audit and agreed to hold new elections. Hours later, he resigned from office after losing support from the police, the Bolivian Workers' Center, and the military.

The 2020 election initially saw Morales announce his intention to run as the candidate for the ruling MAS party. However, he later withdrew and was replaced by Luis Arce as the MAS candidate. Morales was exiled following the 2019 election controversy, but he celebrated Arce's victory in Argentina. Arce indicated that he is open to working with the US to resume diplomatic ties.

The 2020 election saw a historic debate gathering all presidential candidates on the same stage for the first time in almost two decades. The debate was covered by over 80 national and international media outlets and was expected to be viewed by an audience of more than five million people. Notably, the MAS candidate Luis Arce did not attend the debate.

The election day was relatively peaceful, with only a few minor incidents reported. The head of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) commended the conduct of the polls, and international observers from organizations such as the United Nations, the European Union, and the Organization of American States (OAS) testified to the validity of the elections. The official vote count took several days to complete, and any member of the public could attend and photograph the tally sheets.

Evo Morales' resignation

On 10 November 2019, Evo Morales resigned as president of Bolivia. This came after 19 days of civil protests following the disputed election results of October 2019 and the release of a report from the OAS, which alleged irregularities in the electoral process. Morales was forced to resign by the military and police of Bolivia.

Morales' resignation was also influenced by the resignation of other high-level politicians throughout the day, some citing fears for the safety of their families. The following day, Morales accepted an offer of political asylum from the government of Mexico.

Morales' resignation marked the end of his 13-year presidency, which began in 2006. Morales was the country's first president to come from its indigenous population and was known for his left-wing policies, particularly his focus on the legal protections and socioeconomic conditions of Bolivia's previously marginalized indigenous population.

Allegations of fraud

Bolivia's 2019 election results were disputed, with allegations of fraud levelled against then-President Evo Morales. An independent international audit of the election detailed "deliberate" and "malicious" efforts to rig the vote in Morales' favour. The Organization of American States (OAS) identified hidden servers and falsified signatures, among other "serious irregularities". The OAS's final report confirmed evidence of fraud, stating that there had been a series of "intentional operations" to alter the election outcome.

Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, had been seeking a fourth term in office. Questions about the legitimacy of the election were initially raised when the results count was inexplicably paused for 24 hours. The final result gave Morales just enough votes to win outright, sparking protests across the country. An initial OAS report pointed to "clear manipulation" of the election, and Morales agreed to hold a fresh poll. However, days later, Morales stepped down and sought asylum in Mexico following an intervention by the country's armed forces chief.

The OAS's handling of the situation has been criticised. Academic and media studies have shown that the OAS analysis was flawed due to incorrect methods, coding errors, and misrepresentation of results. The OAS has not responded to requests for information about its analysis, and its website still contains the flawed analysis. The US Congress, which provides the majority of the OAS's budget, has passed legislation requiring a report on the "legitimacy and transparency" of the 2019 election.

In the aftermath of the disputed election, Bolivia faced a prolonged political crisis. Morales was replaced by interim president Jeanine Áñez, a former right-wing senator. The interim government presented a bill to pave the way for new elections, which prohibited Morales from participating. New elections were held in October 2020, with Luis Arce of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party winning in a landslide. Official observers from the UN, UNIORE, and the OAS all stated that there was no evidence of fraud in the 2020 election.

Luis Arce's victory

Arce's victory was confirmed by independent quick-count votes conducted by polling firms Ciesmori and Mi Voto Cuenta (My Vote Counts) on the morning of 19 October, which indicated that he had won a majority of the vote, enough to win the election outright without requiring a runoff round. This was soon after confirmed by Interim President Áñez on Twitter, with runner-up Mesa and former president Quiroga also indicating their acceptance of the preliminary results later that day. Official observers from the UN, UNIORE, and the OAS all stated that there was no evidence of fraud in the 2020 election.

Arce's victory marked the return of the MAS to power, with former president Evo Morales, who had fled the country in 2019, also returning to Bolivia. However, it soon became clear that both Arce and Morales wanted to be the MAS candidate in the 2025 presidential election, leading to a bitter rivalry between the two former allies.

Arce's victory was also significant because, for the first time since 2009, the winning party did not have a two-thirds majority in the Legislative Assembly, meaning that some functions would require cross-party support. Additionally, for the first time, the Senate contained a majority of female senators.

MAS party's dominance

Bolivia held its most recent general election on 18 October 2020, with a landslide victory for the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party. MAS's Luis Arce was elected president, winning 55% of the vote and securing majorities in both chambers of the Plurinational Legislative Assembly.

MAS's dominance in Bolivian politics has been evident for some time. The party ruled from 2005 until 10 November 2019 and was victorious again in the 2020 elections. MAS is the dominant force in municipal politics in Bolivia. In the 2015 municipal elections, it was the only party to contest leadership of all 339 municipalities. The mayors of 227 municipalities belong to MAS, as do 1,144 of the country's 2,022 municipal council members.

MAS's dominance is also evident in its ability to form alliances with important business sectors, including those from the region of Santa Cruz, which were once considered bitter enemies of the "change process". Additionally, MAS has forged an agreement with the historical National Workers' Union (COB) to join the MAS electoral platform and provide candidates for the Upper and Lower Chambers.

However, MAS's dominance has been challenged in recent years. The party no longer has a two-thirds supermajority in parliament, and its leadership has been dispersed between three squabbling factions. There are deep internal divisions within MAS, with supporters divided between current President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales.

Despite these challenges, MAS remains a dominant force in Bolivian politics, and its victory in the 2020 elections demonstrates its continued support among the Bolivian people.

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