The Enduring Constancy: Afghanistan's Unchanged Landscape

The War in Afghanistan was the longest war in US military history, lasting from 2001 to 2021. The conflict was sparked by the September 11 attacks, and the US-led invasion of Afghanistan was intended to topple the Taliban-ruled Islamic Emirate and capture al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

Despite the Taliban's initial retreat, the war continued for another 20 years, with the Taliban regrouping and launching a widespread insurgency against the new Afghan government and coalition forces. The conflict resulted in the deaths of an estimated 176,000–212,000+ people, including 46,319 civilians, and millions of Afghans became refugees.

After two decades of war, US President Biden announced the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021, bringing an end to America's longest war.

The Taliban's rule over Afghanistan

Human Rights

The Taliban have imposed a harsh interpretation of Islamic law, despite pledges to respect the rights of women and religious and ethnic minority communities. They have intimidated journalists, restricted press freedoms, violently cracked down on demonstrations, and forcibly disappeared protesters and activists. They have also re-established their Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, which enforces prohibitions on behaviour deemed un-Islamic.

The Taliban have obliterated the rights of women and girls. They have prohibited most girls from attending secondary school, banned all women from attending and teaching at universities, and prevented women from working. In December 2022, the Taliban prohibited women from working at local and international non-governmental organisations (NGOs). The UN Development Programme (UNDP) has estimated that restricting women’s employment could cost up to 5% of Afghanistan’s gross domestic product (GDP). Amnesty International has reported a drastic increase in the number of women arrested for violating discriminatory policies, such as rules requiring women to only appear in public with a male chaperone and to completely cover their bodies. The rates of child marriage have also increased.

The Taliban have also targeted ethnic groups, including religious minorities, with increasing marginalisation, prejudice, and forced evictions. They have enforced public executions and corporal punishment such as stoning and flogging.

Economy

The Taliban's rule has had a detrimental effect on Afghanistan's economy. Malnutrition has soared, and hundreds of thousands of jobs have been lost. The economy has shrunk by up to 30% since the takeover, and an estimated 700,000 jobs have been lost. More than 90% of the population has been suffering from some form of food insecurity.

The Taliban have struggled to provide Afghans with adequate food supplies and economic opportunities. They have, however, been remarkably successful in collecting, consolidating, and centralising customs revenue, while sharply curbing corruption in customs.

The presence of foreign troops

The initial phase of the war, which lasted about two months, saw the Taliban ousted from power. However, foreign troops remained in the country, forming a security mission sanctioned by the United Nations. The goal was to create a new democratic authority in Afghanistan and prevent the Taliban from regaining power. This security mission, known as the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), was led by the United States and included troops from several other countries.

Over time, the number of foreign troops in Afghanistan increased. In 2011, there were roughly 140,000 foreign troops operating under ISAF command across the country. However, the war remained a stalemate, and the Taliban continued to make gains.

In 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed a peace deal, which included a commitment to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan by 2021. The withdrawal of foreign troops began in 2021 and was completed in August of that year, marking the end of the US-led military presence in the country.

The Afghan government

The Taliban Rule (1996-2001)

Before the war, the Taliban, an ultraconservative political and religious faction, ruled most of Afghanistan and provided sanctuary to al-Qaeda. They imposed a strict interpretation of Islamic law, restricting women's rights and enforcing harsh punishments.

The Interim Administration (2001-2004)

After the US-led coalition forces toppled the Taliban, an interim administration was established, led by Hamid Karzai. This administration was tasked with rebuilding the country and creating a democratic authority to prevent the Taliban's return.

The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (2004-2021)

In 2004, Afghanistan held its first democratic elections since the fall of the Taliban, and Hamid Karzai was elected as the country's president. The country became known as the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. However, the government faced challenges such as corruption, ethnic differences, and a resilient Taliban insurgency.

The Taliban Offensive and Return to Power (2021)

Despite international efforts, the Taliban regrouped and launched a major offensive in 2021, culminating in the fall of Kabul and the collapse of the Afghan government. On August 15, 2021, President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, and the Taliban declared victory.

The Current Situation (2021-Present)

Currently, Afghanistan is under the rule of the Taliban, who have established an interim government. The international community has not officially recognized this government, and there are ongoing efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis. The country is facing a humanitarian crisis, with the UN and other organizations providing aid.

The Taliban's ideology

The Taliban's interpretation of Deobandi Islam is heavily influenced by Wahhabism, another ultraconservative movement within Sunni Islam. Wahhabism is enshrined in Saudi law and practiced there today. The Taliban's strict interpretation of Islam led them to introduce or support punishments such as public executions, amputations, and restrictions on women's education and employment.

The Taliban's tactics

Guerrilla Warfare

The Taliban employed guerrilla warfare tactics, taking advantage of Afghanistan's rural landscape and utilising small, mobile cadres of fighters. These groups, typically consisting of 10 to 50 men, were armed with a mix of outdated and modern weapons, often looted from previous battles. This allowed them to engage in hit-and-run attacks and quickly melt back into the local population, making it difficult for US and coalition forces to mount a effective counter-response.

Suicide Attacks and IEDs

As the war progressed, the Taliban increasingly adopted suicide attacks and the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). By 2009, IEDs had become their weapon of choice. These tactics inflicted heavy casualties on Afghan government, US, and coalition forces, and terrorised the local population.

Insider Attacks

The Taliban also utilised insider attacks, planting their personnel within the Afghan military and police forces. This enabled them to gather intelligence, conduct targeted assassinations, and exploit weaknesses in security measures.

Asymmetric Warfare

The significant disparity in military power between the US-led coalition and the Taliban resulted in the Taliban adopting asymmetric warfare strategies. They avoided direct confrontation with superior forces and instead focused on guerrilla tactics, suicide bombings, and IEDs.

Safe Havens in Pakistan

Throughout the war, the Taliban enjoyed safe havens in neighbouring Pakistan, particularly in the country's tribal regions. They received support and sanctuary from various elements within Pakistan, including the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency and certain militant groups. This allowed them to regroup, plan attacks, and launch cross-border operations with relative impunity.

Exploiting Local Support

The Taliban exploited local discontent and grievances to gain support and sympathy from the Afghan population. They capitalised on issues such as civilian casualties caused by coalition forces, corruption within the Afghan government, and a lack of basic services. By presenting themselves as a more effective alternative, they were able to gain a degree of popular support, or at least passive acceptance, in certain areas.

Adaptability and Resilience

The Taliban demonstrated a capacity for adaptability and resilience throughout the war. Despite suffering setbacks, such as the loss of power in 2001, they were able to regroup, reorganise, and launch insurgencies. They were also able to exploit changes in the strategic landscape, such as the shift in US focus to Iraq, to their advantage.

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