The Disputed Region Of Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan Vs. Armenia

The region of Nagorno-Karabakh is claimed by both Azerbaijan and Armenia. The conflict between the two countries over the region has resulted in multiple wars and has been ongoing since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The region is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but was inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians until 2023. In 1923, the Soviet Union established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, with a 95% ethnically Armenian population, within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. In 1988, the Armenians of Karabakh voted to secede and join Armenia, which was met with violence against Armenians in Azerbaijan. This led to the First Nagorno-Karabakh War from 1988 to 1994, resulting in around thirty thousand casualties and hundreds of thousands of refugees.

Since the bilateral acceptance of a ceasefire in 1994, which remained in force until 2020, there have been intermittent clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops. In 2020, heavy fighting broke out along the Azerbaijan-Nagorno-Karabakh border, resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries. A ceasefire agreement was reached in November 2020, with Azerbaijan regaining most of the territory it had lost in the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. However, periodic violations of the 2020 ceasefire escalated into a two-day conflict in September 2022, and in September 2023, Azerbaijan launched an offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in the dissolution of the region's government and the displacement of its population.

The region's history of violence and geopolitical rivalry

The Nagorno-Karabakh region has been at the centre of a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan for decades. The region, which was inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians, was established as an autonomous oblast within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic by the Soviet Union in 1923. However, the region's close ties with Armenia and its ethnically Armenian population led to tensions with Azerbaijan, which sought to suppress Armenian culture and identity in the region.

In 1988, the Armenians of Karabakh voted to secede and join Armenia, citing self-determination laws. This triggered a series of pogroms against Armenians across Azerbaijan and marked the start of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994). The war resulted in de facto Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. A Russian-brokered ceasefire in 1994 left Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent, with a self-proclaimed government in Stepanakert, but still heavily reliant on Armenia.

Despite the ceasefire, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan remained high, and both sides engaged in intermittent clashes along the border, with the use of attack drones, shelling, and special operations. In April 2016, intense fighting along the line of separation resulted in hundreds of casualties, marking the most violent escalation since the 1994 ceasefire.

In September 2020, full-scale war resumed, with Azerbaijan launching an offensive along the line of contact. The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in thousands of casualties and a significant Azerbaijani victory, with Azerbaijan reclaiming much of the territory it had lost in the previous war. A ceasefire agreement, brokered by Russia in November 2020, established a Russian peacekeeping force in the region and allowed Azerbaijan to regain control of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh.

Despite the ceasefire, violations and border clashes continued, with Azerbaijan making incursions into Armenian territory and imposing a blockade on Nagorno-Karabakh in December 2022. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched another military offensive, resulting in the dissolution of the ethnic Armenian enclave and the displacement of its population.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has been characterised by violence, ethnic tensions, and geopolitical rivalry, with both sides engaging in military clashes and competing claims over the region. The region's history of violence and geopolitical rivalry has been shaped by the competing national interests and aspirations of Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the involvement of regional powers and international organisations in mediation efforts.

The role of Russia and Turkey as traditional rivals in the region

The Nagorno-Karabakh region, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, has been the subject of a decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The region is inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians and was entirely claimed by and partially controlled by the breakaway Republic of Artsakh. Russia and Turkey, as traditional rivals in the region, have played a role in this conflict.

Russia has long been Armenia's primary arms supplier, and the two countries are military allies. During the first Nagorno-Karabakh War, Russia was widely viewed as supporting Armenia due to it providing military assistance, including arms and indirect logistical support. Russia supplied around $1 billion worth of weapons, making a vital contribution to Armenia's victory. However, Russia also gave some assistance to Azerbaijan, and in recent years, Russia has been accused of betraying Armenia by refusing to provide military help during flare-ups between Azerbaijan and the breakaway exclave. Russia officially maintains neutrality and seeks to play the role of a mediator, calling for a peaceful settlement and restraint during skirmishes.

Turkey, on the other hand, has close ties with Azerbaijan and considers Armenia one of its main regional rivals. Turkey and Azerbaijan have strong economic, military, cultural, and linguistic ties, with Turkish President Erdogan invoking the saying that the countries are "one nation, two states". Turkey has provided Azerbaijan with combat drones and other military equipment, and its staunch backing has played a significant role in the most serious flare-ups in the region. While Turkey has always supported Azerbaijan's claims over disputed territory in the region, it did not play a significant rhetorical or military role in previous conflicts with Armenia. In recent years, Turkey's support for Azerbaijan has become more assertive, with increased arms sales and joint military exercises.

The rivalry between Russia and Turkey in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is complex and influenced by historical, geopolitical, and economic factors. Russia has traditionally been the main backer of Armenia, while Turkey has supported Azerbaijan. However, both countries have also played both sides in the conflict, supplying arms and offering diplomatic support to both parties. The conflict has also been a source of tension between Russia and Turkey, with Turkey seeking to increase its influence in the region and challenge Russia's dominance. The rivalry between Russia and Turkey has shaped the dynamics of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and continues to be a factor in the ongoing tensions between the two countries.

The impact of oil and pipeline-routing politics

The region of Nagorno-Karabakh is claimed by both Azerbaijan and Armenia. The conflict between the two countries has been influenced by oil and pipeline-routing politics, with significant implications for the region's stability and the global energy market. Here are four to six paragraphs elaborating on the impact of oil and pipeline-routing politics in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict:

Oil and gas reserves play a crucial role in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus region, and the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is no exception. The recent escalation in the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis has raised concerns about the security of energy infrastructure, as two major pipelines carrying oil and gas from Azerbaijan to Europe pass near the disputed enclave. Any disruption to these pipelines could have significant economic and geopolitical consequences.

Azerbaijan's vast oil and gas reserves have become increasingly important in the context of the economic war between Russia and the West following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Europe, seeking to reduce its dependence on Russian energy supplies, has turned to Azerbaijan as a potential alternative source. In July 2022, the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, signed an agreement with Azerbaijan to double the import of Azerbaijani gas by 2027. However, the ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia highlights the risks associated with relying on energy supplies from the region.

The proximity of key oil and gas pipelines and facilities to the Nagorno-Karabakh region has raised security concerns. Although there have been reports of Armenian forces targeting the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) and Baku-Novorossiysk pipelines, these claims have been denied, and no significant damage has been done so far. Nevertheless, the conflict's proximity to these pipelines underscores the fragile balance in the region.

The conflict has also highlighted the complex web of international backers and their interests. Azerbaijan is backed by Turkey, a NATO member with which it has a strategic partnership agreement. On the other hand, Armenia has a military pact with Russia, which has historically considered the South Caucasus as its sphere of influence. The conflict has the potential to draw in these neighbouring powers, further escalating tensions in the region.

While the current conflict has been largely restricted to the Nagorno-Karabakh region, there is a risk of it expanding if either side perceives a significant shift in the battlefield situation. A prolonged conflict could lead to a strategic campaign targeting economic assets, including pipelines. This would have a significant impact on Azerbaijan's economy, as oil and gas account for 80% of its exports, and could invite retaliation, further escalating the conflict.

The impact of the conflict extends beyond the immediate region, as it has the potential to affect Europe's energy security and its efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy supplies. The conflict has also exposed the lack of a coherent Western strategy towards the South Caucasus, particularly regarding energy policy and conflict resolution. As the situation remains volatile, finding a peaceful resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is crucial for regional stability and the global energy market.

The role of the Minsk Group in mediation efforts

The Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has been the primary mediating body dealing with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict since 1992. The group was created in 1994 to address the dispute and is co-chaired by the United States, France, and Russia. These three co-chairs are empowered to organize negotiations with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, separately and at summits. While the Minsk Group has successfully negotiated ceasefires, territorial disputes remain unresolved.

The Minsk Group is believed to have been an exclusive forum where Western and Russian conflicting interests did not hinder its mission to provide ways to solve the conflict. However, since the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war, the cooperation between these countries within the Minsk Group has been largely paralysed. This has coincided with the aftermath of the 44-day Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020, constant border skirmishes, and Azerbaijani aggression and invasion into sovereign Armenian territory. As a result, regional security has suffered, and different actors have attempted to establish themselves as the main mediators between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The Minsk Group has made several proposals for the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, including the "package deal," the "step-by-step" approach, and the "common state" solution. However, the parties have rejected these proposals for various underlying reasons. The "package deal," offered in July 1997, sought to combine all the issues at stake and provide a comprehensive package agreement for even the most sensitive problems. It required the parties to end armed hostilities and withdraw armed forces, while Nagorno-Karabakh would be a state-territorial entity within Azerbaijan with independent legislative, executive, and judicial bodies. The "step-by-step" approach, introduced in December 1997, aimed to reach an agreement on more straightforward issues to enhance the confidence of the conflicting sides before moving on to more complex issues. This approach, however, required compromises on all issues and sometimes hindered the negotiation process. The "common state" solution, proposed in November 1998, implied that Nagorno-Karabakh would be a state territorial formation within Azerbaijan's internationally recognised borders and would have independent legislative, executive, and judicial bodies.

The Minsk Group's activities during the 2016 and 2020 wars included regular statements and meetings with Armenian and Azerbaijani ministers of foreign affairs. The group appealed for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the resumption of negotiations. Despite these efforts, all three attempted ceasefires failed shortly after their implementation. The final ceasefire, established through Russian mediation, was followed by a trilateral statement signed by Armenian, Azerbaijani, and Russian heads of state on November 9, 2020.

The current crisis within the Minsk Group has raised questions about its effectiveness and future. Neither France nor the United States was able to broker a lasting ceasefire during the 2020 war, and Russia became the central mediator after deploying its peacekeeping forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan considers the conflict resolved and believes the Minsk Group's continuation to be pointless. In contrast, Armenia relies on the Minsk Group as a negotiation mechanism. The exacerbation of the situation due to the Russian-Ukrainian war has also raised doubts about the co-chairs' ability to work together.

The issue of security guarantees and the absence of a collective security arrangement

The Nagorno-Karabakh region has been at the heart of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The region, historically Armenian, is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan. However, the absence of security guarantees and a collective security arrangement has been a crucial obstacle to resolving this conflict.

The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s, resulting in the occupation of regions around Soviet-era Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia. A ceasefire was signed in 1994, but border clashes and tensions have persisted, with both sides accusing each other of violating the truce. The absence of a collective security arrangement has allowed these tensions and clashes to continue, with neither side feeling secure enough to fully commit to peace negotiations.

The Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has been the primary forum for mediation efforts since 1992. The group is co-chaired by the United States, France, and Russia, and includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and several other European states as members. While the Minsk Group has successfully negotiated ceasefires, it has failed to produce a permanent solution to the conflict due to the absence of a collective security arrangement.

The absence of a collective security arrangement has also allowed for the involvement of external powers, such as Russia and Turkey, which have pursued their own interests in the region. Russia, for example, has played a dual role as a mediator and a military supplier to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkey, on the other hand, has been widely considered Azerbaijan's main supporter, providing military and diplomatic support.

The lack of a collective security arrangement has also contributed to the persistence of mutual mistrust and historical grievances between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Both sides have a strong sense of national identity and historical claims to the region, which makes it difficult for either side to compromise. The absence of a collective security arrangement that could provide assurances and guarantees to both sides has allowed these grievances and mistrust to fester, making it harder to reach a lasting peace agreement.

Furthermore, the absence of a collective security arrangement has had a significant impact on the civilian population in the region. The lack of security guarantees has led to a sense of vulnerability and fear among civilians, who have borne the brunt of the conflict. The absence of a collective security arrangement has also hindered the delivery of humanitarian aid and the protection of civilians during times of escalation.

In conclusion, the absence of security guarantees and a collective security arrangement has been a crucial obstacle to resolving the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The lack of a collective security arrangement has allowed for external involvement, persisted mutual mistrust, and hindered the protection of civilians. A collective security arrangement that addresses the security concerns of both sides is necessary for a lasting peace in the region.

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