The Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal: What's The Agreement?

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a decades-long conflict over the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh region, which lies in Azerbaijan but has an ethnic Armenian population. In 2020, a Russian-brokered truce ended the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, but there was no peace deal. In 2023, Armenia offered Azerbaijan a project for a full peace treaty, and in 2024, the two countries announced they were close to an agreement that could end one of the former Soviet Union's longest-running territorial conflicts. The deal would include monitoring mechanisms to prevent breaches of the peace deal and the establishment of a joint border commission to demarcate and delimit their shared frontier. While there are still obstacles to overcome, the potential peace deal represents a significant step towards resolving the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two wars over the Nagorno-Karabakh region

Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two wars over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has a predominantly ethnic Armenian population. The conflict is both ethnic and territorial and has its roots in events following World War I.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War took place from 1988 to 1994, as the Soviet Union began to disintegrate. The predominantly Armenian-populated region was governed as an autonomous oblast within the Azerbaijan SSR, but on 20 February 1988, the parliament of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast passed a resolution requesting a transfer to the Armenian SSR. Azerbaijan rejected the request, and ethnic violence ensued, with pogroms committed against Armenians in Sumgait, Ganja and Baku, and against Azerbaijanis in Gugark and Stepanakert.

Following the revocation of Nagorno-Karabakh's autonomous status, an independence referendum was held in the region in 1991, which was boycotted by the Azerbaijani population. In early 1992, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the region descended into outright war. The First Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in the displacement of approximately 725,000 Azerbaijanis and 300,000–500,000 Armenians from both Azerbaijan and Armenia. The war was won by Artsakh and Armenia, and a Russian-brokered ceasefire, known as the Bishkek Protocol, was signed in 1994. This led to a period of relative stability, which significantly deteriorated in the 2010s.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War was an armed conflict in 2020 that lasted 44 days and resulted in an Azerbaijani victory. It was a major escalation of the unresolved conflict, with heavy fighting beginning on the morning of 27 September with an Azerbaijani offensive. Clashes were particularly intense in the less mountainous districts of southern Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey provided military support to Azerbaijan. The war was marked by the deployment of drones, sensors, long-range heavy artillery, and missile strikes, as well as state propaganda and the use of social media. Azerbaijan's widespread use of drones was seen as crucial in determining the conflict's outcome.

A ceasefire agreement was signed on 9 November 2020, ending all hostilities in the area from 10 November 2020. The agreement resulted in a major shift regarding control of the territories in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. Approximately 2,000 Russian soldiers were deployed as peacekeeping forces along the Lachin corridor, with a mandate of at least five years. The Armenian side lost roughly 75% of the territories in and around Nagorno-Karabakh that it controlled prior to the war.

Following the 2020 war, there have been further skirmishes and border clashes, and Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military offensive in September 2023, resulting in a new ceasefire agreement. Most ethnic Armenians fled, and Artsakh was officially dissolved on 1 January 2024. Azerbaijan plans to "reintegrate" the region and its remaining population, promising economic development.

A 2020 ceasefire agreement ended the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War began on 27 September 2020, with Azerbaijan recovering many of its territories during the following six weeks. This culminated in the capture of the strategically important town of Shusha, which prompted both sides to agree to a ceasefire. The agreement included a complete cessation of hostilities, the exchange of prisoners of war, and the withdrawal of Armenian forces from territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. An approximately 2,000-strong Russian peacekeeping force was deployed to the region for a minimum of five years, with one of its tasks being the protection of the Lachin corridor—the only remaining passage between Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh.

Armenia lost roughly 75% of the territories in and around Nagorno-Karabakh that it controlled prior to the war. The agreement allowed Azerbaijan to retain control of areas of Nagorno-Karabakh taken during the conflict, and Armenia agreed to withdraw from several other adjacent areas. This included the Agdam, Kalbajar, and Lachin districts, which were to be returned to Azerbaijan by mid-to-late November 2020.

The 2020 ceasefire agreement was met with mixed reactions. Violent protests erupted in Yerevan, Armenia, with angry mobs storming the Parliament and beating the speaker. In contrast, there were jubilant scenes in Baku, Azerbaijan, with large-scale celebrations marking what was seen as a victory for Azerbaijan and a defeat for Armenia. The agreement was also welcomed by the international community, with leaders from France, Georgia, Iran, Moldova, Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the European Union expressing their support for the cessation of hostilities and hopes for a lasting peace in the region.

While the 2020 ceasefire agreement ended the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has persisted, with both sides accusing each other of shelling civilian areas. In the years following the agreement, there have been efforts to negotiate a comprehensive peace treaty and resolve remaining issues related to transportation corridors, enclaves, and the delimitation of borders.

Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing in the breakaway region

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in conflict for decades, with the latest flare-up centred on the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan's borders. The region has been at the centre of geopolitical interests between Eastern and Western nations for centuries.

The conflict began in the late 1980s as the Soviet Union weakened, and Armenians demanded that the majority-Armenian region be incorporated into the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic. When the USSR collapsed in 1991, the dispute erupted into a full-scale war that persisted until a Russian-brokered peace deal in 1994. Since then, the conflict has continued intermittently, leaving an indelible mark on generations of Nagorno-Karabakh's ethnic Armenian residents.

In 2020, the more powerful Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, reclaimed much of the land surrounding the area, as well as part of the region itself. A 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement was signed by the President of Azerbaijan, Prime Minister of Armenia, and the President of Russia, which ended all hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh region from 10 November 2020 Moscow time. However, this did not put an end to the conflict, and in 2022, Azerbaijan launched an offensive to retake Nagorno-Karabakh, resulting in virtually all of the region's 100,000 residents being forced to flee to Armenia.

Azerbaijan, however, denies the allegations of ethnic cleansing, claiming that it is not forcing people to leave and would peacefully reintegrate the region and guarantee the rights of ethnic Armenians. They have accused Armenia of laying landmines in Nagorno-Karabakh and requested that the International Court of Justice order Armenia to halt these actions and provide maps of minefields. Armenia has denied these accusations and stated its willingness to provide any additional maps in its possession.

The conflict has resulted in a significant refugee crisis, with around 70,000 of Nagorno-Karabakh's population of about 120,000 fleeing to neighbouring Armenia, according to the Armenian government, with more still arriving. Many residents have hauled their personal belongings in packed cars, trucks, buses, and tractors, some pockmarked with shrapnel after days of Azerbaijani attacks. The despair of losing their homes is compounded by the loss of their homeland.

A peace deal would include an exchange of war prisoners

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in conflict for decades, with the two nations fighting multiple wars over the Nagorno-Karabakh region since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The region is internationally recognised as Azerbaijani but has been under the control of Armenian separatists since 1994. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive and regained control of the region, resulting in the displacement of the vast majority of its population.

In the aftermath of this conflict, the two nations have taken steps towards a peace agreement. In December 2023, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to exchange prisoners of war and work towards normalising ties and a peace treaty. This was hailed as a major step towards peace in the region by the European Union and the United States. According to a joint statement, the two countries share the view that there is a "historical chance to achieve a long-awaited peace" and intend to "normalize relations and to reach the peace treaty on the basis of respect for the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity." As part of the deal, Armenia agreed to withdraw its objections to Azerbaijan hosting an international conference on climate change in 2024.

The exchange of prisoners of war is a significant confidence-building measure and an important step towards peace. Azerbaijan agreed to release 32 captured Armenian military servicemen, while Armenia agreed to release two Azerbaijani soldiers. This exchange is in line with the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement, which stipulated the exchange of prisoners of war, hostages, and other detained persons.

While the exchange of prisoners is a positive development, significant obstacles remain on the road to a durable peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. One major obstacle relates to the demand by Azerbaijan for Yerevan to amend the Armenian constitution to clearly acknowledge that Karabakh is not part of Armenia. This demand has created a difficult domestic political situation for the Armenian government, as a significant segment of the Armenian public is opposed to recognising the permanent loss of Karabakh.

Despite these challenges, the recent progress in bilateral talks and the exchange of prisoners of war represent a renewed movement in the peace process. The two countries have expressed interest in concluding a peace agreement rapidly, and the exchange of prisoners is a crucial step in building mutual trust and laying the groundwork for a more peaceful future.

The deal would also see the deployment of Russian and Turkish peacekeepers

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in conflict for decades, with recent hostilities centred on Azerbaijan's breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, controlled by its ethnic Armenian population since the fall of the USSR. In 2020, a ceasefire agreement was signed, bringing an end to the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. This agreement included the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to the region.

The 2020 ceasefire agreement was signed by the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, and the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin. It brought an end to all hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh region from midnight on 10 November 2020 Moscow time. As part of the agreement, a contingent of Russian peacekeepers was deployed to the region, with a mandate of at least five years. The peacekeeping force consisted of 1,960 troops, armed with firearms, armoured vehicles and motor vehicles, as well as units of special equipment. These peacekeepers were tasked with monitoring compliance with the ceasefire agreement by both Armenia and Azerbaijan. They established observation posts along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin Corridor, the only remaining passage between Armenia and the Republic of Artsakh.

In addition to the deployment of Russian peacekeepers, a memorandum of understanding was signed between Russia and Turkey to create a joint Russian-Turkish Monitoring Centre (RTJMC) in Azerbaijan. The RTJMC was established to monitor the ceasefire using unmanned aerial vehicles. The centre is guarded by Azerbaijani servicemen, and at full operation, it was served by a total of 60 servicemen, 30 from each of Russia and Turkey.

The deployment of Russian and Turkish peacekeepers was part of a broader agreement to end military conflict over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. The peace deal, which took effect on 21 October 2024, included several key provisions. Azerbaijan will retain control of the areas of Nagorno-Karabakh that it took during the conflict, and Armenia has agreed to withdraw from several adjacent areas. The agreement also includes an exchange of war prisoners, with all economic and transport contacts to be unblocked.

The peace deal has been met with mixed reactions. While it has been celebrated in Azerbaijan as a historic victory, it has sparked protests and unrest in Armenia, with some considering it a capitulation and a betrayal by the government. The Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, described the deal as "incredibly painful" and emphasised that it was not a defeat.

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