The Conflict Between Armenia And Azerbaijan: A Complex Problem

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is an ethnic and territorial dispute over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has a predominantly ethnic Armenian population. The conflict has its roots in the early 20th century, with both countries claiming the region after the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917. The dispute escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, resulting in tens of thousands of casualties and the displacement of over a million people. Despite a ceasefire agreement in 1994, tensions continued to flare up, with Azerbaijan launching a large-scale military offensive in 2020 that resulted in significant territorial gains. The conflict has been further exacerbated by the involvement of external powers, including Russia, Turkey, and NATO, and has had a devastating impact on the region, leading to a humanitarian crisis and ongoing instability.

The Nagorno-Karabakh region is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has a majority ethnic Armenian population

In 1923, the Soviet Union established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, which had a 95% ethnically Armenian population, within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. However, Armenians in the region were heavily discriminated against by Soviet Azerbaijani authorities, who suppressed Armenian culture and identity, pressured Armenians to leave, and encouraged Azerbaijanis to settle in the region. In 1988, the Nagorno-Karabakh regional legislature passed a resolution to join the Republic of Armenia, citing self-determination laws in the Soviet constitution. This led to a series of pogroms against Armenians across Azerbaijan and marked the start of the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, which lasted from 1988 to 1994. The war resulted in tens of thousands of casualties and created hundreds of thousands of refugees. By the end of the war, Armenia had gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied 20% of Azerbaijan's geographic area.

A Russian-brokered ceasefire, known as the Bishkek Protocol, was signed in 1994, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent with a self-proclaimed government. However, the region remained heavily reliant on Armenia for economic, political, and military support. Despite the ceasefire, intermittent clashes and border tensions continued over the years, with both sides accusing each other of violations.

In late 2020, the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War broke out, resulting in thousands of casualties and a significant Azerbaijani victory. Azerbaijan regained control of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and captured a third of the region itself. Most ethnic Armenians fled the region, and in January 2024, the government of Artsakh officially dissolved.

Azerbaijan's re-establishment of control over Nagorno-Karabakh has altered power dynamics in the South Caucasus region and raised concerns about the potential for further conflict. The international community, particularly organisations like the OSCE Minsk Group, has attempted to mediate and negotiate a lasting peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, territorial disputes remain unresolved, and tensions persist along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.

The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. This conflict is known as the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, which lasted from 1988 to 1994. The war centred around the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnically Armenian enclave located within Azerbaijan.

In 1988, ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, which was then the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), demanded to be transferred from Soviet Azerbaijan to Armenia. This demand was met with a series of pogroms against Armenians across Azerbaijan, sparking violence against both Armenians and Azerbaijanis. As the Soviet Union began to dissolve in 1988-1989, tensions escalated into outright war between ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in approximately 30,000 casualties and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. By the war's end in 1994, Armenia had gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied 20% of Azerbaijan's geographic area, including seven districts adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh. A Russian-brokered ceasefire, known as the Bishkek Protocol, ended the war and left Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent, with a self-proclaimed government. However, the region remained heavily reliant on Armenia economically, politically, and militarily.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War was followed by decades of intermittent clashes and border tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, despite the bilateral acceptance of a ceasefire in 1994. This period of relative stability deteriorated in the 2010s, with a significant escalation occurring in April 2016, resulting in hundreds of casualties.

In September 2020, full-scale war resumed with the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, which lasted for six weeks and resulted in thousands of military and civilian casualties. Azerbaijan, backed by its ally Turkey, made significant gains, retaking large portions of Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding territories. A ceasefire brokered by Russia ended the conflict, with Russian peacekeepers deployed to patrol the remaining parts of Nagorno-Karabakh not under Azerbaijani control.

The war resulted in the displacement of over a million people and the deaths of 30,000

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is an ethnic and territorial dispute over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which has a predominantly ethnic Armenian population. The conflict escalated into a full-scale war in the early 1990s, known as the First Nagorno-Karabakh War, which resulted in a significant number of casualties and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people from both sides. The war also led to the occupation of regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia.

The First Nagorno-Karabakh War lasted from 1988 to 1994 and resulted in approximately 30,000 casualties. The war ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire in 1994, known as the Bishkek Protocol, which left Nagorno-Karabakh de facto independent with close ties to Armenia. However, the conflict remained unresolved, and both sides continued to exchange hostilities over the years, with periodic violations of the ceasefire agreement.

In late 2020, the tensions escalated once again, leading to the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. This conflict resulted in thousands of casualties and a significant victory for Azerbaijan. The war ended with a tripartite ceasefire agreement on November 10, 2020, which was mediated by Russia, France, and the United States. As a result of this conflict, Azerbaijan regained control of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and a significant portion of Nagorno-Karabakh itself.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War resulted in a massive displacement of people from the region. By September 26, 2020, the Armenian government reported that 19,000 forcibly displaced people had entered Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh. The number of displaced people continued to grow, and the government of Armenia later reported that over 68,000 people had fled Nagorno-Karabakh to seek safety in Armenia.

The conflict also resulted in significant casualties on both sides. According to official figures, Armenia lost 3,825 troops, with 187 missing, while Azerbaijan reported 2,906 troops killed and 6 missing. However, the actual number of casualties is believed to be higher, as both sides were accused of downplaying their own losses and exaggerating the numbers of enemy casualties.

The impact of the war extended beyond the immediate region, with shells and rockets landing in nearby countries such as Iran and Georgia. The conflict also led to increased cases of COVID-19 in Nagorno-Karabakh, as the population was forced to live in overcrowded bunkers due to the fighting. Additionally, there were reports of difficulties in testing and contact tracing during the pandemic due to the ongoing conflict.

A second war broke out in 2020, resulting in Azerbaijan retaking large portions of Nagorno-Karabakh

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan centres on the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnically Armenian enclave located inside Azerbaijan. The area is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but it is claimed by Armenia.

In 2020, a second war broke out between the two countries, resulting in Azerbaijan retaking large portions of Nagorno-Karabakh and nearby territories. This conflict, known as the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, lasted 44 days and resulted in a significant Azerbaijani victory. The use of drones bought from Turkey and Israel was a crucial factor in Azerbaijan's success. Several thousand people were killed, and many more were wounded.

The war began on 27 September, with an Azerbaijani offensive along the line of contact established after the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. Clashes were particularly intense in the less mountainous districts of southern Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey provided military support to Azerbaijan, although the extent of this support is disputed.

The war was characterised by the deployment of drones, sensors, long-range heavy artillery, and missile strikes. State propaganda and the use of official social media accounts in online information warfare also played a significant role. The conflict resulted in thousands of casualties and a significant number of displaced people. By September 26, the Armenian government reported that 19,000 forcibly displaced people had entered Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh.

On 9 November 2020, a ceasefire agreement was signed, ending all hostilities in the area. The agreement was mediated by Russia, and it resulted in Azerbaijan regaining control of all the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as capturing one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. Russian peacekeepers were deployed to the region to patrol the remaining Armenian-controlled areas and to monitor the Lachin corridor, a transit route connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War significantly altered the power dynamics in the South Caucasus region, which has long been a crossroads of geopolitical interests for Russia, Turkey, and Western nations. The conflict also highlighted the complex web of international relations in the region, with Russia playing a dual role as a military ally of Armenia and a mediator between the two countries.

The conflict has been exacerbated by the involvement of other countries, including Russia, Turkey, and the US

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been exacerbated by the involvement of other countries, including Russia, Turkey, and the US.

Russia has had a military base in Armenia as part of a military alliance and is thus obligated by treaty to defend Armenia in the case of war. However, Russia has sought to maintain good relations with both sides, selling weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. When Azerbaijan struck Armenian territories in October 2020, Russia did not directly interfere in the conflict. This absence was partly due to Russia's preoccupation with its failing invasion of Ukraine, which has also forced a withdrawal of troops.

Turkey has provided military support to Azerbaijan, including military experts and Syrian mercenaries. The two countries are bound by ethnic, cultural, and historic ties, and Turkey became the first country to recognise Azerbaijan's independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. The transport communications stipulated by the ceasefire agreement would also provide Turkey with trade access to Central Asia and China's Belt and Road Initiative.

The US has also been drawn into the conflict, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visiting Armenia in September 2022 to show support for Armenian "security and democracy" against Azerbaijan's "illegal and deadly attacks". The US played a key role in halting Azerbaijan's aggression in September 2022 and has initiated meetings for and with Armenian and Azerbaijani officials.

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