The Unraveling Of Afghanistan: A Complex Tale Of Conflict And Survival

Afghanistan is a country that has been plagued by economic, humanitarian, and climate crises. The country has seen a rise in tourism, with a 120% increase in foreign tourists in 2023. However, Afghanistan has also faced issues such as flash floods, earthquakes, and malnutrition. The Taliban's ban on girls' education and curtailment of women's freedom have also drawn criticism and defied both worldly and religious logic. The country has witnessed attacks by armed groups, including ISIS and the Taliban, with civilians and security forces being targeted. Overall, Afghanistan faces significant challenges but also showcases resilience and a return to daily life amidst the turmoil.

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan

The Rise of the Taliban

The Taliban, a Sunni Islamic fundamentalist movement with a predominantly Pashtun ethnic base, first came to power in Afghanistan in the 1990s. They imposed a strict interpretation of Islamic law, which often resulted in harsh policies towards women, political opponents, and religious minorities. The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 ousted the Taliban from power due to their refusal to hand over Osama bin Laden after the 9/11 attacks. Despite this, the Taliban never left Afghanistan. They regrouped and, by 2021, controlled much of the country's countryside.

The Fall of the Afghan Government

The Taliban began a rapid offensive in 2021 as the US began its final withdrawal. Afghan security forces, despite billions of dollars in training and equipment from the US and its allies, quickly collapsed. On August 15, 2021, Taliban fighters entered the capital, Kabul, and President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. The Afghan government fell, and the Taliban established checkpoints to maintain security. The speed of the Taliban's advance and the collapse of the Afghan government took many, including US officials and allies, by surprise.

Human Rights Violations

Under Taliban rule, Afghanistan has witnessed a rollback of human rights, particularly regarding women's rights and freedom of expression. Women have been banned from working, appearing in public without a male chaperone, and participating in sports activities. Girls have been prohibited from attending school beyond primary education. The Taliban have also restricted press freedoms, leading to the closure of numerous news organizations. Those who peacefully express views critical of the Taliban face enforced disappearance, unlawful detention, arbitrary arrest, torture, and other ill-treatment.

Economic and Humanitarian Crisis

The Taliban takeover has exacerbated Afghanistan's economic woes. The country's economy has shrunk by up to 30%, and hundreds of thousands of jobs have been lost. Malnutrition has soared, and the UN estimates that nearly 29 million Afghans are in need of assistance. The pause in aid by some countries and international organizations has further deepened the humanitarian crisis. The healthcare system is fragile and heavily dependent on international aid.

Security Concerns

The Taliban takeover ended the fighting between Taliban fighters and US and Afghan government forces, improving the overall security situation and reducing civilian casualties. However, violence remains a concern, with the Islamic State in Khorasan (ISIS-K) increasing attacks on civilians. There are also fears that Afghanistan could once again become a safe haven for terrorist groups, particularly al-Qaeda, as the Taliban are believed to maintain close ties with them.

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is facing a complex and severe humanitarian crisis, with millions requiring aid and protection assistance. The crisis has been driven by four decades of conflict, poverty, natural disasters, and economic downturn. The situation has been exacerbated since the Taliban assumed control of the country in August 2021, with their policies restricting the rights of women and girls in particular.

Impact on Women and Girls

The Taliban's restrictions have severely impacted the ability of women and girls to access services and participate in life outside the home. They have been banned from secondary and higher education and forced out of jobs. Women are not allowed to participate in political or public life and are required to have a male chaperone when moving around. These policies have increased protection risks and humanitarian needs for women and girls, who already faced high levels of violence and discrimination.

Food Insecurity and Poverty

The Afghanistan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) 2024 identified food as a top need for the country, along with healthcare services, education, and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). Acute food insecurity is expected to continue into 2024, with around 15.8 million people projected to experience high levels of food insecurity. The World Bank reports that 48% of Afghanistan's population lives in poverty, and the economic situation has severely impacted Afghans' access to food and other basic needs.

Healthcare and Education

The Taliban's ban on women working for NGOs has directly impacted women and girls' access to healthcare services, including sexual and reproductive health. Infectious disease outbreaks, such as measles, dengue fever, and acute respiratory infections, are also affecting the country. The education ban has hindered educational outcomes and led to mental health challenges for women and girls, who face uncertainty about their futures.

Funding Shortfall

Limited funding has been a key characteristic of the Afghanistan crisis, with humanitarian organizations navigating a complex set of sanctions that complicate aid delivery. The United Nations' request for funding is less than 30% funded, and specific sectors, such as clean water and irrigation, face funding shortfalls, exacerbating the impacts of drought on agriculture, livelihoods, and health.

Natural Disasters

Afghanistan is vulnerable to natural disasters and has experienced earthquakes, flooding, and drought in recent years. These disasters have further strained the country's infrastructure and livelihoods, increasing displacement and humanitarian needs.

Way Forward

The Afghanistan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) 2024 estimates that $3.06 billion is needed to assist the 17.3 million people targeted for aid. Priorities include food aid, safe drinking water, healthcare, and education. Protecting vulnerable groups, especially children, women-headed households, and those living with disabilities, remains paramount.

The ban on girls' education

The Taliban's ban on girls' education in Afghanistan has had devastating consequences for the country's female population. The ban, which came into force in 2021, prohibits girls from receiving an education beyond the sixth grade. This restriction has effectively barred half of Afghanistan's population from receiving a secondary education and has had a detrimental impact on the mental health and well-being of Afghan girls and women.

Prior to the Taliban takeover, Afghanistan had made significant progress in educational attainment for girls. From 2002 to 2021, almost four million girls enrolled in first through twelfth grades. There were also over 80,000 female teachers in the country, and more than 100,000 women enrolled in universities in 2020. However, since the Taliban's rise to power, they have sought to marginalize women and girls and erase them from public life. In addition to the ban on secondary education, the Taliban has implemented over 20 written and verbal decrees on girls' education, each adding further restrictions. These decrees include banning co-education, certain university majors for women, and annual university entrance exams for female students. The Taliban has also targeted girls' and boys' schools, with several schools being burned down in recent months.

The psychological impact of the ban has been profound. Afghan girls and women have reported feelings of depression, anxiety, and hopelessness, with some exhibiting signs of post-traumatic stress disorder and even suicidal thoughts. A ninth-grade teacher from Kabul reported that her students are suffering from attention deficiency and learning difficulties due to the disruption in their education. The lack of access to mental health resources, especially in rural areas, has further exacerbated the situation.

The Taliban's justification for the ban stems from their interpretation of Islamic law or Sharia. However, there is a consensus among clerics outside Afghanistan that Islam emphasizes the equal importance of education for both males and females. The Taliban's interpretation has been criticized as being restrictive and extreme, and even other Taliban officials have expressed support for reversing the ban. Despite international condemnation and the negative consequences of the ban, the Taliban has shown no signs of reversing their decision, and the future of girls' education in Afghanistan remains uncertain.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan

The campaign in Afghanistan started covertly on September 26, 2001, with a CIA team known as Jawbreaker arriving in the country. The team worked with anti-Taliban allies, including the Northern Alliance, and initiated a strategy for overthrowing the regime. The US also teamed with anti-Taliban Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan, including Hamid Karzai, a little-known tribal leader at the time.

The public phase of the invasion began on October 7, 2001, with US and British warplanes pounding Taliban targets, marking the start of Operation Enduring Freedom. In late October, Northern Alliance forces began overtaking towns formerly held by the Taliban, with US assistance. On November 13, they marched into Kabul as the Taliban retreated without a fight.

Kandahar, the largest city in southern Afghanistan and the Taliban's spiritual home, fell on December 6, marking the end of Taliban power. Anti-Taliban figures then convened at a UN-sponsored conference in Bonn, Germany, and Karzai was selected to lead the country on an interim basis.

The manhunt for Mullah Omar, Osama bin Laden, and al-Qaeda deputy chief Ayman al-Zawahiri continued. The closest the Americans were believed to have come to bin Laden was during the December 2001 battle of Tora Bora (bin Laden's mountain stronghold). However, bin Laden was thought to have slipped into Pakistan with the help of Afghan and Pakistani forces.

The second phase of the invasion, from 2002 until 2008, was marked by a US strategy of defeating the Taliban militarily and rebuilding core institutions of the Afghan state. The third phase, from 2008, saw a turn to classic counterinsurgency doctrine, with a focus on protecting the population from Taliban attacks and reintegrating insurgents into Afghan society.

The Islamic State in Khorasan (ISIS-K)

ISIS-K is a regional branch of the Salafi jihadist group Islamic State, active primarily in South and Central Asia, especially Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is considered one of the most lethal branches of ISIS, responsible for thousands of deaths and injuries in Afghanistan and Pakistan since its inception in 2015. The group emerged in eastern Afghanistan in late 2014 and quickly established a reputation for extreme brutality.

ISIS-K was formed by defectors from various militant groups, including al-Qaeda, Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), and former Taliban fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan. In January 2015, the central Islamic State announced its official expansion into the Khorasan province, with former Pakistani Taliban, Afghan Taliban, and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan members forming ISIS-K. The group's traditional base of power remains in eastern Afghanistan along the border with Pakistan, recruiting from former dissatisfied fighters and dissenters of the Taliban, as well as individuals from South and Southeast Asia. It is estimated that ISIS-K has between 1,500 to 6,000 members.

ISIS-K seeks to destabilize and replace the current governments within the historic Khorasan region, aiming to establish a caliphate across South and Central Asia, governed under a strict interpretation of Islamic Sharia law. The group has conducted numerous attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan, primarily targeting civilians, especially Shia Muslims, politicians, and government employees. They have also expanded their operations beyond their traditional area, carrying out attacks in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Iran, and Russia.

ISIS-K's relationship with the Taliban is hostile due to ideological differences and rivalry for resources. ISIS-K considers the Taliban "filthy nationalists" and believes their motives contradict the Islamic State's goal of a global caliphate. The conflict between the two groups is mainly based on territorial disputes and the implementation of Sharia law, with ISIS-K advocating for an even stricter interpretation.

ISIS-K's financing structure is diverse, benefiting from financial support from the broader ISIS network and external funding from sympathetic patrons in Gulf countries. They also generate income through criminal enterprises, such as human trafficking and smuggling, and by levying taxes on local populations and businesses within their controlled territories.

The group has posed a significant threat to American and allied interests in South and Central Asia and has been designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the US State Department.

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