The Icj Belize Decision: Understanding The Ruling And Its Impact

Belize and Guatemala have had a long-standing territorial dispute, which has its roots in the 17th century when British settlers came to the coasts of Central America. In 2008, the two countries reached a Special Agreement to resolve the dispute via the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In 2019, Belizeans voted in a referendum to send the matter to the ICJ to decide on Guatemala's claim.

Guatemala's territorial, insular and maritime claim

Guatemala and Belize have had a long-standing territorial, insular and maritime dispute. In 2008, both countries signed a Special Agreement to submit Guatemala's claim to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, Netherlands. The ICJ is the principal judicial organ of the United Nations, responsible for settling legal disputes between states and giving advisory opinions on legal matters.

The dispute between Guatemala and Belize centres around Guatemala's claim to land and insular territories, as well as maritime areas pertaining to these territories. Guatemala's claim stems from a historical boundary dispute between the two countries, which has been ongoing for centuries. In 2013, the Deputy Foreign Ministers of both countries met with the intention of moving the negotiation process forward and safeguarding the Special Agreement. This resulted in the expansion of confidence-building measures and the establishment of a high-level working group to draft new measures.

In 2014, the Foreign Ministers of Belize and Guatemala, along with the Secretary-General of the Organization of American States (OAS), signed the "Road Map and Plan of Action" agreement. This agreement aimed to strengthen the bilateral relationship between the two countries and set a new date for the referenda on submitting the dispute to the ICJ. The referenda were initially scheduled for October 6, 2013, but were postponed to allow for the negotiation process to advance.

On May 25, 2015, the Belizean and Guatemalan Ministers of Foreign Affairs, along with the outgoing Secretary-General of the OAS, signed the Protocol to Amend the Special Agreement. This allowed for the referenda to be held either simultaneously or separately. The referendum in Belize took place on May 8, 2019, with 55% of voters opting to send the matter to the ICJ. The Guatemalan referendum was held on April 15, 2018, with an overwhelming majority of 95% voting 'yes' to taking the claim to the ICJ.

The ICJ has extended the time limits for the filing of the initial pleadings in the case, taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the preparation of the necessary documentation. The ICJ's role in this dispute is to determine the legal claims of Guatemala against Belize and to establish the boundaries between the two countries' respective territories and areas.

The Belize-Guatemala territorial dispute

In the 1820s, the Spanish Empire was rapidly losing its grip on Central America, and in 1821, the new nations that emerged claimed they had inherited Spain's sovereign rights in the area. Guatemala's claims varied, sometimes asserting control over all of Belize, and at other times, proposing to split the territory along the Sibun River with Mexico. However, Britain forced Guatemala to recognise British claims, and in 1859, the Wyke-Aycinena Treaty was signed, establishing the modern-day boundary lines of Belize.

The treaty included an article about constructing a mutually beneficial road, which was never built. Less than a decade later, Guatemala renewed its claims on the area, arguing that the unbuilt road nullified the 1859 treaty. Throughout the 20th century, tensions flared up intermittently, with Guatemala periodically threatening to invade Belize. In 1945, the new Guatemalan constitution even declared Belize part of Guatemalan territory.

In 1976, Guatemala considered taking advantage of its "string of victories over leftist guerrillas" to take over Belize, but these plans were halted by an earthquake that struck Guatemala's capital. In 1981, Belize finally declared independence from the United Kingdom, which had been delayed due to the persistent threat posed by Guatemala. Even after Belize's independence, the peace remained tentative, and several incidents on the border could have escalated into full-blown conflict.

In 1999, Guatemala shifted its stance once again, basing its claims on inheritance from the Spanish Empire and the Federal Republic of Central America, demanding over half of Belize's land mass. In response, both countries stationed troops at the border, creating a tense standoff.

In 2008, Belize and Guatemala agreed to hold simultaneous referendums to decide whether to submit the territorial dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for a final ruling. The referendums were eventually held in 2018 and 2019, with voters in both countries opting to send the matter to the ICJ. The ICJ is expected to rule on the dispute by 2025 at the earliest. While the ICJ is likely to rule in Belize's favour, the outcome will have significant geopolitical ramifications, and tensions could still flare up if politicians on either side choose to exploit the issue.

The ICJ's role in resolving the dispute

The Belize-Guatemala territorial dispute is an ongoing conflict between the two Central American nations. The roots of the dispute can be traced back to the 17th century, when British settlers arrived on the coast of Central America to cut logwood. The Spanish Crown considered these settlers intruders and pirates, and while the British Crown initially offered no protection, it eventually agreed to allow them to cut logwood within a small area that remained under Spanish sovereignty.

In the centuries since, Britain and Guatemala have negotiated several treaties regarding territories in the Americas, with varying levels of success. The dispute has continued during Belize's periods of colonial control and independence, with Guatemala arguing that it inherited Spain's sovereign rights over the territory when the Spanish Empire fell.

In 2008, Belize and Guatemala agreed to hold simultaneous referendums to decide whether to submit the issue to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for a final decision. The referendums, which took place in 2018 and 2019, respectively, both resulted in a "yes" vote, with a majority of voters in both countries agreeing to send the dispute to the ICJ.

The ICJ will apply established international law to the case and issue a binding decision that both parties must respect. The Court's decision is expected to uphold the sanctity of borders and treaties, which are foundational principles of the international system. While there is a risk that Belize could lose part of its territory in the ICJ's decision, it is generally believed that Belize has a strong case and that the Court will rule in its favor.

The ICJ's ruling is not expected until 2025 at the earliest. In the meantime, it is important for both nations to continue adhering to the 2008 Special Agreement and maintain peace through organizations like the Organization of American States (OAS).

The history of the Belize-Guatemala dispute

The Belize-Guatemala dispute is one of the world's longest-running territorial disputes, dating back to the 17th century.

Early Colonial Era (1600s-1821)

In the early 1600s, British settlers arrived on the coast of Central America to cut logwood. The Spanish Crown considered these settlers intruders and pirates, and Spain and Britain signed several treaties regarding territories in the Americas. Both nations agreed that the territory of modern-day Belize was under Spanish sovereignty, although British settlers could use the land for specific purposes. In 1670, the Godolphin Treaty confirmed that England could hold all territories in the Western Hemisphere that it had already settled, but the treaty did not specify which areas were considered settled.

In the 1763 Treaty of Paris, Britain agreed to demolish its forts in the region and recognised Spanish sovereignty over the soil, while Spain allowed British settlers to continue logging wood in the territory. Subsequent treaties in 1783 and 1786 extended these rights and agreed on boundaries for what was now known as the British Settlement of Belize in the Bay of Honduras. Despite these treaties, Spain continued to try to dislodge the settlers, with the last attempt occurring in 1798.

Late Colonial Era (1821-1930s)

By the 1820s, the Spanish Empire was losing its grip on Central America, and several countries, including Guatemala, declared independence. Guatemala claimed sovereignty over Belize as an "inheritance" from Spain, but this was rejected by Britain. In 1859, Britain and Guatemala signed the Wyke-Aycinena Treaty, which recognised British sovereignty over Belize and formed the country's modern-day boundary lines. However, tensions flared up again in the following decades, with Guatemala periodically renewing its claims on the area.

Road to Independence (1931-1981)

In the 20th century, Britain stationed troops in Belize to secure the region against Guatemalan invasion, and negotiations took place to try to resolve the dispute. Belize and Britain pursued a path to independence, and in 1981, Belize gained independence. However, the dispute remained unresolved, and Guatemala continued to claim sovereignty over Belize.

Post-Independence (1981-present)

In the years following Belize's independence, a group of British forces protected the country against invasion from Guatemala. In the early 2000s, both Belizean and Guatemalan troops patrolled the border, and there were several violent incidents, including the killing of a Guatemalan by a Belizean patrol in 2000. Negotiations between the two countries have continued, and in 2019, both countries agreed to refer the dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which is expected to rule on the matter by 2025 at the earliest.

The future of Belize-Guatemala relations

The Belize-Guatemala territorial dispute is an unresolved conflict that goes back to the 17th century. Guatemala has claimed sovereignty over Belize, in whole or in part, since its independence. The roots of this claim lie in the argument that Guatemala inherited Spain's sovereign rights over the territory when the Spanish Empire fell.

In 1859, Britain and Guatemala negotiated the Wyke-Aycinena Treaty, which stated that Guatemala recognised British sovereignty over the region and formed the modern-day boundary lines of Belize. However, this treaty was abrogated by Guatemala in 1939, which led to tensions and the threat of invasion. Despite Guatemala recognising Belize's independence in the early 1990s, it continued to claim the territory.

In 2008, Belize and Guatemala made a pact to have simultaneous referendums to send the issue to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In 2019, both countries voted in favour of taking the dispute to the ICJ, and as of June 2022, both countries have submitted their initial briefs to the organisation. The ICJ is not expected to rule until 2025 at the earliest.

On the other hand, if the ICJ rules in Guatemala's favour, it could escalate tensions and negatively impact relations. Guatemala may use the ruling to assert its sovereignty over the disputed territory and attempt to exert control. This could lead to increased border conflicts, tensions, and even military confrontations. However, it is important to note that the ICJ's decision is final and cannot be appealed, so both countries would need to find a way to respect and implement the ruling peacefully.

Another possibility is that the ICJ's ruling could be a mixed decision, addressing different aspects of the dispute separately. For example, the ICJ may rule on maritime boundaries, exclusive economic zones, or specific territorial claims. In this case, both countries may gain and lose certain rights, which could lead to a more complex dynamic in their relations.

Additionally, the time it takes for the ICJ to reach a decision could impact the future of Belize-Guatemala relations. With the ruling not expected until 2025 or later, there is a chance that domestic political realities in either country could shift and influence how they approach the dispute. There may be changes in leadership, public opinion, or international relations that could affect their willingness to cooperate or compromise.

Furthermore, the ICJ's ruling will likely have broader implications for the region. It could set a precedent for similar territorial disputes in Central America and the Caribbean, influencing how these conflicts are resolved in the future. The outcome may also impact the strategic balance of power in the region, particularly regarding access to maritime resources and exclusive economic zones.

In conclusion, while the future of Belize-Guatemala relations remains uncertain, the resolution of the territorial dispute by the ICJ has the potential to bring lasting peace and improved relations between the two countries. However, the outcome will depend on both nations' willingness to respect and implement the ICJ's ruling peacefully, regardless of the decision. In the meantime, it is crucial for Belize and Guatemala to continue engaging in bilateral negotiations, confidence-building measures, and collaborative initiatives to maintain stability and avoid escalation.

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