Iran's Bahrain Takeover: A Geopolitical Nightmare

Bahrain's Sunni monarchy believes that Iran wants to annex the country, which has a majority Shia population. Iran's past comments asserting that Bahrain is historically part of Iran, together with its support for Bahrain's Shia opposition, have magnified these fears. Iran has been accused of fomenting the 2011 uprising in Bahrain and of plotting attacks against state security in the years since. In response, Bahrain has imposed harsh domestic repression, including disbanding the political opposition and jailing thousands of political prisoners. Bahrain also accuses Iran of providing militants with financial support and arms training through its militias in Iraq.

Iran's historical claim to Bahrain

In 1951, the Iranian Education Ministry began printing and teaching school books that suggested Bahrain had always been part of Iran. Tehran even had policies targeting Bahrainis visiting Iran for worship, requiring them to enlist in the Iranian army. In 1954, the Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a memo to all foreign embassies in Tehran, asserting that Bahrain was an integral part of Iran.

In 1957, the Iranian parliament declared Bahrain to be the fourteenth province of Iran, a statement that caused alarm in Manama, Riyadh, and London, prompting the British to vow to protect Bahrain from Iran. In 1965, Iran and Britain held talks to regulate their regional competition over maritime borders in the Gulf. However, Britain was unwilling to discuss Iranian claims to Bahrain.

In the late 1960s, Iran pushed for a plebiscite in Bahrain to test the pulse of Bahraini co-religionists and check the size of its popular following in the Kingdom. However, this move was rejected by the Bahraini and British governments. Instead, Iran and Britain agreed to ask the United Nations to conduct a survey to determine the country's identity and orientation. The result was undisputed: the overwhelming majority of Bahrainis expressed their wish to keep Bahrain as an Arab entity, independent from Iran.

In 1970, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi abandoned Iran's historic claim to Bahrain, and the two countries signed a demarcation agreement. However, even after Bahrain achieved independence, the Iranian claim for its Arab neighbor remained part of official declarations by senior Iranian officials.

Bahrain's importance to the US

Bahrain has been a location of a US naval base since 1947, when it was still a British colony. The US-Bahrain relationship was formalised in 1971 when Bahrain gained independence from the UK. The US designated Bahrain a Major Non-NATO Ally in 2002. Bahrain hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet and US Naval Forces Central Command, and participates in US-led military coalitions, including the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. Bahrain's security forces have also supported the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan.

Bahrain is a vital US partner in defence initiatives and is a key player in the region's security architecture. The US-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement (FTA) entered into force in 2006, generating additional commercial opportunities for both countries. In 2021, two-way trade exceeded $2 billion, up from $1.5 billion in 2020. The primary US exports to Bahrain include aircraft, machinery, and motor vehicles, while Bahrain exports to the US include aluminium, oil, textiles, and plastics.

In 2023, the United States and Bahrain signed a strategic security and economic agreement to expand defence and intelligence collaboration between the two countries. This agreement commits the US to consult and provide assistance if Bahrain faces an imminent security threat. It also strengthens the coordination between the two countries' armed forces and integrates their intelligence capacities.

Bahrain is strategically important to the US as it is the central node of the international maritime presence securing the world's most important choke points. It is also the country to which Iran lays the most expansive and longstanding historical claim, and where Iran conducts some of its most aggressive destabilization efforts. Bahrain's small size and proximity to Saudi Arabia make it an inviting target. Bahrain is also politically aligned with the US, with a 100% aligned economy, outlook, and foreign policy.

In summary, Bahrain is important to the US because of its strategic location, its role in regional security, its participation in US-led military coalitions, and its economic and political alignment with the United States.

The impact on Israel-Bahrain relations

Bahrain's relations with Israel have been a source of tension with Iran. In September 2020, Bahrain announced it would establish official ties with Israel, prompting anger from Iranian leadership, who accused Bahrain of working with Zionist groups.

The Bahraini government believes that Iran wants to annex its majority-Shiite country or install a puppet regime. These fears are fuelled by past comments from Iranian Shiite leaders asserting that Bahrain is the 14th province of Iran, as well as Iran's support for Bahrain's Shiite opposition and its criticism of Bahrain for hosting the US Fifth Fleet.

In response to these fears, Bahrain has imposed repression at home, with death sentences rising by 600% in the last decade and the political opposition being disbanded or imprisoned. Bahrain has also accused Iran of fomenting the 2011 uprising and plotting attacks against state security in subsequent years.

The impact of Iran's influence in Bahrain on its relations with Israel is complex. On the one hand, Iran's support for Bahrain's Shiite population and opposition groups has contributed to domestic instability and provided a rationale for Bahrain's repressive measures. On the other hand, Iran's inability or unwillingness to provide concrete support to Bahraini Shiite activists during populist uprisings may have reduced its political influence and caused problems in its relations with Arab governments, including Bahrain.

Additionally, Iran's conflicting attitude towards Bahrain, stemming from its desire to advance relations with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries while also pursuing its ideological ambitions, has created mistrust and strained relations with Bahrain and other GCC countries.

Overall, while Iran's influence in Bahrain has negatively impacted its relations with Israel, the situation is complex and influenced by multiple factors, including historical, religious, and geopolitical considerations.

The role of the Shia population

The Shia population in Bahrain is estimated to be the majority, with sources stating they make up 55-62% of the country's citizens. The Shia community has historically faced worse economic circumstances than their Sunni counterparts, and high-ranking official positions are predominantly held by Sunnis.

The Shia population in Bahrain has been a point of contention between the country and Iran. Iran has historically laid claim to Bahrain, with aspirations informed by ethno-religious and strategic considerations. Iran's leadership has expressed a desire to annex Bahrain, and while this is not a realistic possibility, Iran continues to seek ways to exert influence in the country.

The Shia population in Bahrain has been a target of Iranian influence campaigns. Iran has pursued a destabilizing agenda in Bahrain, attempting to raise the costs of the US and British military presence and build a larger domestic following among the Shia community. Iran has provided funding, proselytization, recruitment, training, and arms to various Shia actors in Bahrain.

The Bahraini Shia society, Al Wefaq, has two primary goals: opposition to the current Sunni government and changing the structure of society to be based on rule by the people. Al Wefaq was established in 2001 by over 100 Shia scholars and is the country's biggest opposition society.

While there are Shia activists and groups in Bahrain who have allegiances to Iran, their support base is still considered marginal. The majority of Bahrain's Shia population has long ago declared Bahrain as their final homeland and does not relate to Iran's religious teachings.

The Bahraini government's crackdown on its Shia population following the 2011 protests further soured relations with Iran. The government's actions, including the detention, torture, and destruction of Shia mosques and cemeteries, have contributed to the widening gap between the government and the opposition.

In conclusion, the Shia population in Bahrain plays a significant role in the country's dynamics and its relationship with Iran. While Iran seeks to exert influence over this community, the majority of Bahrain's Shia population has its own goals and aspirations, which may not always align with Iran's interests.

The potential for military conflict

The presence of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and Bahrain's peace treaty with Israel have also strained relations between the two countries. Iran has been critical of Bahrain's hosting of US military forces and has denounced Bahrain's normalization of relations with Israel. These factors contribute to the potential for military conflict between the two countries.

In the event of a potential Iranian takeover of Bahrain, the response from the international community, particularly the United States, the United Kingdom, and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, would be crucial. A military conflict could escalate if Iran attempts to annex Bahrain or establish direct control. Such a move would likely be seen as a threat to the interests of the US and its allies in the region, potentially leading to their intervention.

However, it is important to note that Iran's influence in Bahrain has been limited by practical considerations and the presence of US and UK military forces in the country. Iran has primarily relied on proxy groups and clandestine operations to pursue its interests in Bahrain, rather than direct military action.

In conclusion, the potential for military conflict between Iran and Bahrain exists due to historical tensions, religious affiliations, and geopolitical factors. However, the practical considerations and the presence of international powers in the region may serve as deterrents to open military conflict. The dynamics between Iran and its regional rivals, particularly Saudi Arabia, would also influence the likelihood and scale of any military conflict.

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