Bolivia's Election: A Turning Point For Democracy

Bolivia's 2019 election was mired in controversy, with incumbent Evo Morales securing a fourth term as president despite allegations of fraud and a referendum in 2016 rejecting the removal of term limits. Morales resigned and fled to Mexico and later Argentina amidst mass protests and pressure from the military and police. The interim government, led by Jeanine Áñez, was tasked with overseeing a re-run election, which was postponed twice due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2020, Luis Arce, an economist and banker who served as finance minister under Morales, was elected president. However, Arce's former ally has now become his rival, with Morales vowing to run against him in the 2025 election, exacerbating the rift within their Movement for Socialism (MAS) party.

The election of Luis Arce

Luis Alberto Arce Catacora, more commonly known as Lucho, was born in La Paz, Bolivia, on 28 September 1963. He is a Bolivian banker, economist, and politician who has served as the 67th president of Bolivia since 2020. Arce's political career began when he was appointed as the minister of finance in 2006 by then-President Evo Morales. This appointment came after a lifelong career in banking and accounting at the Central Bank of Bolivia.

Arce's tenure as minister of finance was marked by his role in Bolivia's economic transformation, including the nationalization of the country's hydrocarbons industry, rapid GDP expansion, and a significant reduction in poverty rates. However, his time in office was cut short in 2017 when he was diagnosed with kidney cancer, forcing him to leave the country and seek treatment abroad. After recovering, Arce returned to his position as minister of finance in 2019 but soon resigned amid social unrest and allegations of electoral fraud, which ultimately led to Morales' removal as president.

During the interim government led by Jeanine Áñez, Arce sought asylum in Mexico and Argentina. It was during this time that Morales, who was barred from running for reelection, nominated Arce as the Movement for Socialism's (MAS) presidential candidate for the 2020 elections. Throughout the campaign, Arce portrayed himself as a moderating force within the party, distancing himself from Morales and emphasising his commitment to socialist ideals.

On 18 October 2020, Arce won the presidential election in a landslide, securing 55% of the popular vote. This victory brought Bolivia back in line with its traditional position under Morales, moving away from the right-wing shift of the Áñez government. Arce's first year in office was marked by successes in combating the COVID-19 pandemic through vaccine procurement and international calls for the pharmaceutical industry to waive patents on vaccines and medications to improve access for low-income countries.

Arce's presidency has also focused on addressing the urgent need for judicial reform and rectifying economic decisions made by the previous interim government. Additionally, he has worked to strengthen Bolivia's foreign relations, particularly with countries like Russia, China, and those in Latin America.

Evo Morales' exile

Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, was forced to resign on 10 November 2019, following weeks of civil protests over disputed election results. Morales had been declared the winner of the 2019 Bolivian general election, securing a fourth term in office with 47.08% of the vote—enough to avoid a runoff second-round vote. However, the legitimacy of the election was questioned, with the Organization of American States (OAS) conducting an audit that claimed "clear manipulation" and significant irregularities.

After 19 days of civil protests, Morales was forced to resign by the military and police, accompanied by the resignation of high-level politicians throughout the day. The following day, Morales accepted the Mexican government's offer of political asylum and fled to Mexico. He would later relocate to Argentina in December 2019.

During his exile, Morales continued to exert influence in Bolivia, declaring his intention to lead the charge to topple the interim government. However, he faced a challenge to his political influence from within his own party, the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS), with some members favouring a more moderate approach. Morales also faced legal challenges, with the interim government issuing an arrest warrant for alleged sedition and terrorism. These charges were later dropped, and Morales returned to Bolivia on 9 November 2020, after 11 months in exile.

Allegations of fraud

The 2019 Bolivian general election was held on 20 October 2019, with incumbent President Evo Morales declared the winner with 47.08% of the vote. This was more than 10% higher than that of his nearest competitor, Carlos Mesa, and as such, Morales was announced as the winner without the need for a second-round run-off vote.

However, disputes over the transparency and legitimacy of the election arose, with allegations of fraud prompting weeks of widespread protests in Bolivia. The Organization of American States (OAS) conducted an audit, claiming "clear manipulation" and significant irregularities, and releasing a full report outlining its findings. The European Union also released a report indicating that their observers found many irregularities and chaotic processes in the election.

The New York Times later published an article based on a new study by independent researchers and academics, concluding that the initial report was flawed as it was released too early, relied on poor datasets, and used inappropriate statistical methods. The study found no statistical evidence of voter fraud as the audit had claimed.

Despite this, the Bolivian Workers' Center, the military, and the police of Bolivia forced Morales to resign and he fled to Mexico, and later Argentina, claiming he was the victim of a coup. Morales' vice president, Álvaro García Linera, and other high-level politicians also resigned, citing fears for the safety of their families.

In the midst of this institutional chaos, conservative senator Jeanine Áñez emerged to declare herself next in line to lead a transitional government as de facto president. Áñez's transitionary term was marked by violent protests, which she was convicted of brutally repressing. She later declared herself a candidate for the 2020 special presidential election, which she lost to Luis Arce of MAS, Morales' former economy minister.

MAS party's internal conflict

The Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party has been divided into two internal factions: the "Arcistas" (Renovator Bloc), which defends Luis Arce's management and seeks the renovation of the party leadership, and the "Evistas", which defends former president Evo Morales's leadership and seeks his re-election in the 2025 Bolivian general election. On 4 October 2023, Arce and Vice President David Choquehuanca were expelled from the party by a decision of the board chaired by Morales. However, the Arcista faction did not recognise the expulsion.

The MAS party has been weakened since 2019. Though it enjoys a majority in both chambers of parliament, it no longer has a two-thirds supermajority. It won the 2020 national elections but saw mixed results in sub-national elections in 2021.

The MAS's weakened condition has shown itself in various ways. In parliament, for example, the election of a new ombudsperson is proving difficult. Previously, with its supermajority, the MAS could choose who it wanted. Now any candidate will need cross-party support. On the streets, meanwhile, the government has been forced into U-turns on policies that annoyed parts of its base.

Political infighting within the MAS seems to absorb much of its attention. The MAS is more divided than at any point since it came to power in 2005. A simmering war of words between rival factions recently boiled over into violence in a town in Potosí, where clashes between two groups, reported to be supporters of Choquehuanca and Morales, claimed the lives of two people. There is also already tension around who will lead the MAS into the 2025 elections.

The internal divisions of the MAS are likely more pronounced due to the lack of an effective opposition to rally against. Fragmentation has been a feature of the opposition since the MAS came to power, and the crisis of 2019 did little to change this.

One way the MAS might generate some internal cohesion is through the trial of Jeanine Áñez, the former president of Bolivia, who stands accused of assuming the presidency illegally in November 2019. The trial serves a political function for the MAS. It reinforces the MAS narrative that a coup occurred with Morales as its victim.

The role of interim president Jeanine Áñez

Jeanine Áñez, a lawyer, politician, and television presenter, served as the 66th president of Bolivia from 2019 to 2020. She was a member of the Social Democratic Movement and served two terms as senator for Beni from 2010 to 2019. During this time, she also served as the second vice president of the Senate from 2015 to 2016 and, briefly, as president of the Senate in 2019.

In 2019, after the resignation of President Evo Morales and other officials in the line of succession, Áñez declared herself next in line to assume the presidency. On November 12, 2019, she installed an extraordinary session of the Plurinational Legislative Assembly, which lacked a quorum due to the absence of members of Morales' party, the Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP). In a short session, Áñez declared herself president of the Senate and then used that position to assume the constitutional succession to the presidency of the country, which was endorsed by the Supreme Court of Justice.

During her time as interim president, Áñez issued a decree removing criminal liability for military and police in dealing with protesters, which was later repealed amid widespread condemnation following the Senkata and Sacaba massacres. She launched numerous criminal investigations into former MAS officials, terminated Bolivia's close links with the governments of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and improved relations with the United States. After delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing protests, new elections were held in October 2020.

Despite initially pledging not to run, Áñez launched her own presidential campaign, contributing to criticism that she was not a neutral actor in the transition. She withdrew her candidacy a month before the election, citing low poll numbers and the fear of splitting the opposition vote against MAS candidate Luis Arce, who won the election.

Following the end of her mandate in November 2020, Áñez was arrested and charged with crimes related to her role in the alleged coup d'état of 2019. In June 2022, she was found guilty of breach of duties and resolutions contrary to the Constitution and sentenced to ten years in prison.

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