Bolivia's Political Turmoil: What's Next?

Bolivia has been in the news recently for several reasons. The country has been facing political turmoil, with an attempted coup, economic turmoil, and street protests. There have also been natural disasters, including wildfires, drought, and flooding.

On the political front, there was an attempted coup in June 2024 when General Juan José Zúñiga used the nation's armed forces to surround the presidential palace and other government buildings in La Paz. This led to the arrest of the commander of the navy, Vice-Admiral Juan Arnez Salvador, and General Zúñiga himself. There are conflicting accounts of the coup, with some claiming it was a genuine attempt to restore Bolivia's democracy and others accusing President Luis Arce of orchestrating a self-coup to boost his waning popularity.

In addition to the political turmoil, Bolivia is facing economic challenges, with prices surging, dollar shortages, and long lines at gas stations. There have also been street protests by supporters of former President Evo Morales, who clashed with followers of President Luis Arce ahead of the 2025 election.

On top of these challenges, Bolivia is also grappling with natural disasters. Wildfires have burned through more than 10 million hectares of land this year, mostly in the country's tropical east, displacing thousands of people and affecting the lives of farmers and Indigenous communities. The government has declared a national disaster due to the fires, which have been exacerbated by drought and land clearances. Additionally, flooding in the north of the country has destroyed homes and led to the declaration of a disaster zone in the city of Cobija.

A three-hour coup attempt by General Juan José Zúñiga

On 26 June, General Juan José Zúñiga led a three-hour coup attempt in Bolivia, using the nation's armed forces to surround the presidential palace and other government buildings. Tanks and armoured vehicles were positioned in Plaza Murillo, the main square in the capital of La Paz, with one tank smashing through the door of the presidential palace.

Zúñiga's actions were purportedly in response to Bolivia's economic crisis, which has led to protests in the streets and a struggle for power in the ruling party between President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales. The general demanded new cabinet ministers and the release of political prisoners, claiming he wanted to "restore Bolivia's democracy".

However, the coup attempt was short-lived. President Arce confronted Zúñiga, ordering him to withdraw his soldiers. The general was then taken into custody and escorted away in a bulletproof army vehicle. The commander of the navy, Vice-Admiral Juan Arnez Salvador, was also arrested, and Arce appointed new leaders of the army, navy and air force. The new army commander ordered the troops to return to their barracks.

In the aftermath of the coup attempt, two conflicting accounts have emerged. The first is that it was a genuine coup attempt undertaken by Zúñiga, who had reportedly been dismissed from his post by Arce the day before, and a civilian mastermind named Anibal Aguilar Gomez. This account is supported by Latin American countries, including Venezuela, Brazil, Mexico, Cuba, and Honduras, as well as the Secretary General of the Organization of American States, all of whom condemned the coup and expressed support for Arce.

The second account, put forward by Zúñiga upon his arrest, accuses President Arce of attempting a self-coup. The general claimed that Arce told him to "prepare something to raise my popularity" and take out the armoured vehicles. Arce has denied these accusations, and Bolivian officials have dismissed them as lies to justify Zúñiga's actions. However, members of the opposition have echoed the accusations, and political analyst Carlos Toranzo noted that the president and his cabinet remained strangely calm as the coup unfolded.

The conflicting narratives and political tensions between Arce and Morales suggest that Bolivia may be headed for further political conflict in the wake of the coup attempt.

President Luis Arce accused of attempting a self-coup

On 26 June 2024, soldiers stormed the Bolivian Presidential Palace in La Paz as part of an apparent coup attempt against President Luis Arce. The coup was led by General Juan José Zúñiga, who was arrested shortly after claiming that the military had staged the intervention at the president's request.

Zúñiga, who was removed from his role as commander of the Bolivian Army the day before, said he wanted to restructure democracy and that while he respected President Luis Arce "for now", there would be a change of government. In dramatic footage from inside the palace, President Arce could be seen confronting Zúñiga, ordering him to stand down and vacate his role.

President Arce denied that the attack was a "self-coup", stating that he had stayed to defend democracy. He also denied that Bolivia was in an economic crisis, saying that the country's economy was growing. However, Bolivia has been experiencing significant cost-of-living pressures and a shortage of US dollars.

Following the coup attempt, pro-democracy demonstrators took to the streets in support of the government. President Arce also announced the appointment of new military commanders and confirmed that Zúñiga had been dismissed.

Zúñiga's exact motivations for launching the coup remain unclear. However, in the days following the attempt, Arce's governmental minister, Eduardo del Castillo, claimed that there were "snipers who did not arrive in time to the Murillo square" where the coup was staged.

Wildfires burn a record area

Wildfires in Bolivia have burned through more than 10 million hectares (24.7 million acres) this year, mostly in the country's tropical east, breaking records for its worst fire season ever. The non-governmental organization, Tierra Foundation, released new figures on Monday, showing that Bolivia has surpassed the devastating fire years of 2010 and 2019.

Santa Cruz, a wealthy farming region in the eastern lowlands near Brazil, has been the worst affected, with almost 7 million hectares of the total, followed by the nearby department of Beni, with 3 million hectares. "What's happened in recent months in eastern Bolivia, and will continue to occur at least through October, is a disaster of a magnitude unprecedented in the country," said Juan Pablo Chumacero, a researcher at the Tierra Foundation.

The government-shared numbers until September tallied 4.6 million hectares of burned forest and 2.3 million hectares of grasslands. September was the worst month of the year. Data from Brazil's INPE space agency shows that there have been 82,117 active fire outbreaks in Bolivia so far this year, only 1,000 fewer than the full-year record in 2010. Bolivia's government declared a national disaster last week after pressure from local authorities, community organizations, and citizens for more intervention.

Scientists say that while most fires are set by humans, fossil-fuel-driven climate change has led to hot and dry conditions that are helping the fires spread more quickly. Bolivia's fires have also been exacerbated by drought and land clearances linked to booming cattle and grain production. "2024 will be remembered as the year of the worst environmental disaster in Bolivia's history," said Gonzalo Colque, the director of the Tierra Foundation.

Natural gas discovery

Bolivia's beleaguered president, Luis Arce, has recently announced the discovery of vast natural gas reserves. This discovery is said to be the biggest find in almost two decades and is expected to be a boon for the country, which has been facing economic turmoil. The natural gas field is located just north of the capital, and its discovery comes at a crucial time as gas exports, one of Bolivia's primary sources of revenue, have been dwindling.

The announcement of the natural gas discovery comes on the heels of a tumultuous time for Bolivia, with the country facing economic challenges and political unrest. Just a week before the announcement, there was an alleged coup attempt involving General Juan José Zúñiga, who used the nation's armed forces to surround the presidential palace and other government buildings in La Paz. The coup attempt was thwarted, and General Zúñiga was arrested and accused of attempting a self-coup by President Arce. This accusation has been disputed, with some opposition members and political analysts questioning the government's narrative.

The discovery of the natural gas reserves could be a significant turning point for Bolivia, providing much-needed economic relief and potentially helping to stabilise the country amidst political turmoil. However, it is important to note that the country has also faced environmental challenges, with recent reports of severe droughts and wildfires causing concern.

The natural gas discovery has brought a glimmer of hope to Bolivia, and only time will tell how this find will impact the country's economic and political landscape in the long run. The government and people of Bolivia alike are undoubtedly eager to harness this discovery to bring about positive change and improve the nation's fortunes.

Evo Morales leads a march to the capital

Evo Morales, the former president of Bolivia, led a march to the country's capital, La Paz, ahead of the 2025 election. Morales's supporters clashed with followers of his rival, the current president, Luis Arce. The march comes at a time of turmoil in Bolivia, with Arce having survived a coup attempt in June 2024.

Morales is the country's first indigenous president and its longest-serving leader. He was forced to step down in 2019 amid allegations of election fraud. An interim administration, led by Jeanine Áñez, assumed power with a mandate to call fresh elections. However, violent protests ensued, and the country faced its most uncertain moment in several decades.

The 2024 coup attempt saw General Juan José Zúñiga use the nation's armed forces to surround the presidential palace and other government buildings in La Paz. He positioned tanks and armoured vehicles in the main square, and a tank smashed through the door of the presidential palace. In response, Arce confronted the general, saying, "I am your captain, and I order you to withdraw your soldiers, and I will not allow this insubordination." The general was then taken into custody, and the coup attempt was over.

Two different accounts of the coup attempt have emerged. The first is that it was a genuine coup attempt undertaken by the army commander, who had been dismissed from his post by Arce the day before, along with a civilian mastermind named Anibal Aguilar Gomez. This account suggests that General Zúñiga rose up "to restore Bolivia's democracy" and demanded new cabinet ministers and the release of political prisoners.

The second account, put forward by General Zúñiga upon his arrest, accuses President Arce of attempting a self-coup. The general claimed that Arce told him, "The situation is very screwed up, very critical. It is necessary to prepare something to raise my popularity." According to this account, Arce orchestrated the self-coup to boost his waning popularity.

Arce has denied the charge, and Bolivian officials have dismissed it as a quickly thought-up lie. However, members of the opposition have echoed the accusation, and the country's political analyst Carlos Toranzo noted that it was "strange" that there was "total tranquillity from the president and his cabinet" as the events unfolded.

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