Bolivia's Turbulent Times: A Nation's Political Struggles

Bolivia has been in a state of turmoil since the controversial re-election of its first indigenous president, Evo Morales, in October 2019. Morales, who had already been in power for nearly 14 years, was accused of rigging the election and faced widespread protests, as well as losing the support of the country's armed forces. He eventually resigned, claiming that this was a “civic coup” and that he had been forced to step down. However, his opponents celebrated, believing his departure to be a triumph against a leader who had tried to cling to power illegitimately. The interim administration, led by Jeanine Áñez, has promised to hold fresh elections, but the country remains deeply polarised, and violent protests have already claimed lives and are likely to continue.

Evo Morales' resignation

Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, resigned on November 10, 2019, after nearly 14 years in power. Morales's resignation came after three weeks of protests over allegations of fraud in the October 2019 election, which he won.

Morales, a former trade union organizer and cocalero activist, had been re-elected for an unconstitutional third consecutive term. However, the election was disputed due to allegations of fraud, and the ensuing unrest led to Morales's resignation and temporary exile.

Morales's supporters clashed with those of his rival, the current president Luis Arce, ahead of the 2025 election. Arce was Morales's hand-picked successor and old ally but has now become his bitter rival. Both men want to be the candidate of the country's dominant political party, the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), in 2025.

Morales fled the capital, La Paz, and initially went into exile in Mexico. He later moved to Argentina, where he was also granted political asylum. In November 2020, Morales returned to Bolivia after 11 months abroad, following Arce's election.

Allegations of election rigging

Bolivia's first indigenous president, Evo Morales, was forced to resign amid allegations of election rigging. Morales, a charismatic leftist, had stood for a fourth term as president, despite a 2016 referendum that voted down this proposal. A court packed with loyalists allowed him to run indefinitely.

The 20 October 2019 election results showed a win for Morales, but this sparked claims of corruption from supporters of his opponent, Carlos Mesa. A monitoring group, the Organisation of American States (OAS), found overwhelming evidence of deliberate and malicious election rigging in favour of Morales. The OAS described several violations, including the use of a hidden computer server designed to tilt the vote toward Morales. The OAS report concluded that there had been deliberate actions to manipulate the result of the election, making it impossible to validate the official results.

Morales fled to Mexico shortly after the OAS's initial report, describing the allegations as a political hit and claiming that the OAS was "in the service of the North American empire". Bolivia's Congress passed legislation to annul the contested elections and hold a new vote without Morales. At least 30 people died in clashes between protesters and security forces following the election, most of them after Morales stepped down.

Protests and violent clashes

Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, was accused of rigging the election. Observers became suspicious when election officials stopped announcing results for 24 hours without explanation. When the final results were announced, Morales—who had been leading by less than 10 points in early returns—had won by just over the 10-point margin needed to avoid a runoff against his closest rival, former president Carlos Mesa.

Mesa and other opposition politicians quickly accused the government of fraud, and protests spread throughout the country. Right-wing protesters began torching election centres and targeting the homes of senior members of Morales's Movement for Socialism party. At least three people were killed and more than 100 were injured in the clashes.

Morales resisted calls to stand down, arguing that the protests represented an illegitimate coup against his rule. However, on 10 November 2019, he resigned in a televised address, bowing to pressure from the military, the public, and a report from the Organisation of American States (OAS) that found evidence of "clear manipulation" in the election.

Morales's resignation sparked further protests and clashes between pro-Morales and opposition supporters. Morales's supporters, as well as other leftist governments in the region, saw his ouster as a coup, while his opponents celebrated his departure as a triumph against a leader who had tried to cling to power.

The interim government, led by Jeanine Áñez, promised to hold fresh elections within 90 days, as required by Bolivia's constitution. However, the atmosphere remained tense, with reports of looting and vandalism. Analysts warned that the power vacuum left by Morales's departure could lead to further violence and political instability.

Political asylum in Mexico

Bolivia was plunged into a political crisis in 2019 when Evo Morales, the country's first indigenous president and its longest-serving leader, was forced to step down amid allegations of election rigging. Morales had been allowed to run for a fourth consecutive term, despite losing a referendum on the issue in 2016. After a preliminary vote count was interrupted, it resumed 24 hours later, indicating that Morales had narrowly surpassed the 10% margin of victory needed to avoid a runoff election. Observers from the Organisation of American States (OAS) sounded the alarm, and their subsequent audit found evidence of "clear manipulation", including stuffed ballots and compromised servers.

Morales resigned on Sunday, sparking clashes in cities across the country and protests in neighbouring countries. At least three people died in the clashes, and ballot boxes and electoral offices were set on fire by protesters. Morales lost the support of Bolivia's armed forces and fled to Mexico, claiming political asylum and vowing to return to Bolivia with "strength and energy".

Mexico has granted asylum to Evo Morales, recognising him as a political asylee. Political asylees are public figures who have a reasonable fear of persecution due to their opinions or political role. Mexico's asylum system, in theory, is one of the world's most inclusive and protective of asylum seekers. The process of applying for asylum in Mexico is straightforward and free of charge. Asylum seekers can apply for asylum at any of the ten locations of the Mexican Commission for Refugee Assistance (COMAR) or the Office of Immigration Regulation of the National Institute of Immigration (INM). They will be provided with a certificate demonstrating that their asylum process has started and a temporary Unique Population Registry Code (CURP) to access public services.

Asylum seekers must demonstrate a reasonable fear of persecution, imprisonment, or torture due to their race, religion, nationality, gender, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion. They may also be eligible for refuge if they can show that their life or liberty could be endangered by armed conflicts, systemic violence, or substantial human rights violations in their country of origin. Mexico's definition of a refugee is one of the most inclusive in the world and is in line with the Cartagena Declaration on Refugees.

Once the application is submitted, COMAR has up to 45 to 100 business days to resolve the case and notify the applicant. During this time, asylum seekers can obtain a Visitor Card for Humanitarian Reasons (TVRH), which allows them to work while the application is processed. If the application is successful, the applicant immediately becomes a refugee and is granted access to public benefits, including free healthcare and education. They also have the right to settle anywhere in the country.

However, Mexico's asylum system faces challenges due to underfunding and a growing number of asylum applications. The Mexican Commission for Refugee Help (COMAR) has a limited number of locations, and most have been overwhelmed by the increasing number of petitions. Additionally, Mexico's economic and demographic circumstances may not be ideally suited to absorb large numbers of refugees, and the country also faces systemic problems with gang and gender-based violence.

Interim government and future elections

The resignation of Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous leader, left a power vacuum that was quickly filled by the second senate vice president, Jeanine Añez Chávez, from the opposition Democratic Unity party. Añez assumed the role of interim president with the goal of calling new elections within 90 days, as required by the constitution. However, the stability of the transitional government depended on gaining the support of the armed forces and overseeing a restructuring of the electoral commission to the opposition's satisfaction.

Añez's interim government faced the challenging task of navigating a deeply polarised atmosphere, with ongoing violence and protests between pro- and anti-Morales groups. The interim administration was also tasked with addressing the country's underlying dilemma: the peaceful and democratic transfer of power, which had eluded Bolivia during its 200 years of independence.

The legitimacy of the upcoming elections and the potential for a democratic transition hinge on several factors. Firstly, the new government must adhere to the constitutional timetable and schedule elections within 90 days. Secondly, Morales's party, the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), must field a candidate other than Morales, as he will likely be barred from running due to allegations of electoral fraud and the prohibition on running for a fourth term.

If the centre-right opposition wins the upcoming election, they will likely seek to overturn many of Morales's policies and decisions. However, it is worth noting that Carlos Mesa, the main opposition candidate, is not an extreme right-winger. He previously served as Morales's representative at The Hague in Bolivia's suit against Chile before the International Court of Justice.

The outcome of the elections will significantly impact the country's future, and the world awaits to see if Bolivia can successfully navigate this delicate democratic transition.

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