Bolivia's Turbulent Times: A Decade In Review

Bolivia has been in a state of turmoil since the controversial re-election of its first indigenous president, Evo Morales, in October 2019. Morales, who had already been in power for nearly 14 years, was accused of rigging the election and stealing the vote. This sparked weeks of protests, with right-wing demonstrators torching election centres and targeting the homes of senior members of Morales' party. Morales eventually resigned, bowing to pressure from the military and the public, but his departure left a volatile power vacuum, with violent clashes between pro-Morales and opposition supporters continuing. The interim administration, led by Jeanine Áñez, has promised to hold fresh elections, but the country's future remains uncertain.

Evo Morales' resignation

Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, resigned on 10 November 2019 amid allegations of election fraud. Morales had been at the centre of controversy after he was allowed to run for a fourth term as president, despite losing a referendum on the issue in 2016.

Morales, a former coca farmer, was first elected in 2005, and praised for his work in reducing poverty, nationalising oil and gas industries, and improving social spending. However, his popularity took a hit when he attempted to abolish presidential term limits. After losing the referendum in 2016, Morales got the country's Constitutional Court to throw out the term limits, allowing him to run for a fourth term in 2019.

Morales claimed victory in the October 2019 ballot, but unexplained lapses in reporting the results drew allegations of vote fraud and set off weeks of protests by his opponents. The Organisation of American States, a monitoring group, agreed that there had been "manipulation" and called for the result to be cancelled. As the protests turned violent, Morales lost the support of Bolivia's armed forces, and was forced to resign.

Morales described the events leading to his resignation as a "coup"—a military takeover. His supporters clashed with the police, while opponents took to the streets to celebrate.

Allegations of election rigging

On 20 October 2019, Bolivia held a controversial election. President Evo Morales was seeking a fourth term after a court ruling overturned presidential term limits. Under Bolivian election laws, a presidential candidate needs to win 50% of the vote, or 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner-up, to avoid a second-round runoff. Morales claimed to have won by just over the 10-point margin, but this was disputed.

Observers became suspicious when election officials stopped announcing results for about 24 hours without explanation. When final results were announced, Morales—who had been leading by less than 10 points in early returns—had won by just enough to avoid a runoff.

Opposition politicians quickly accused the government of fraud, and protests spread throughout the country. Right-wing protesters began torching election centres and targeting the homes of senior members of Morales's Movement for Socialism party. At least three people were killed and more than 100 were injured in clashes.

An independent monitoring group, the Organisation of American States (OAS), found evidence of "clear manipulation", including stuffed ballots, forged signatures, and compromised servers. They called for the annulment of the election result. Morales accepted the findings and agreed to hold new elections. However, critics questioned the impartiality of the OAS, noting that Morales's apparent victory was in line with previous polling. They argued that his late-stage surge in votes reflected late-reporting rural areas.

Morales's opponents celebrated his departure as a triumph against a leader who had fraudulently tried to cling to power. However, Morales's supporters and other leftist governments in the region, such as Cuba and Venezuela, saw the events as a coup. Mexico, which is sheltering top Bolivian officials in its La Paz embassy, offered Morales political asylum.

Protests and violent clashes

Morales's opponents, including his closest rival, former President Carlos Mesa, accused the government of fraud. Protests spread throughout the country, with right-wing protesters torching election centres and targeting the homes of senior members of Morales's Movement for Socialism party. The violence resulted in at least three deaths and over a hundred injuries.

Morales, who had been in power for nearly 14 years, initially refused to step down, arguing that the protests represented an illegitimate coup against his rule. However, he eventually resigned on 10 November 2019, after mounting pressure from the military, the loss of support from the country's Armed Forces, and the publication of a report by the Organization of American States (OAS) that found evidence of "clear manipulation" in the election.

Despite Morales's resignation, the political situation in Bolivia remained volatile, with ongoing clashes between pro-Morales and opposition supporters. The interim government, led by Jeanine Áñez, faced the challenging task of stabilising the country and organising new elections within 90 days, as required by the constitution. However, the stability of the transitional government depended on the support of the armed forces, and the country remained deeply polarised, with violent protests and counter-protests continuing.

The international community was divided on the events in Bolivia. Left-wing political leaders in several Latin American countries condemned Morales's removal as a coup, while others, such as the US and Brazil, celebrated his ouster. The debate centred on whether Morales's departure was an unconstitutional seizure of power or a legitimate response to his democratic failings and alleged electoral fraud.

The role of the Bolivian military

The Bolivian Armed Forces are responsible for the external and internal defence of Bolivia and are constituted by the Bolivian Army, the Bolivian Air Force, and the Bolivian Navy. The Bolivian National Police are also part of the Armed Forces' reserves. The Armed Forces are led by a Commander in Chief, appointed by the President of Bolivia.

In 2019, the Bolivian military, alongside the police and public protestors, put pressure on President Evo Morales to step down amid allegations of election rigging. Morales' supporters clashed with police, and his opponents took to the streets to celebrate. This led to a tense atmosphere, looting, and vandalism. Morales described the events as a "coup" and a military takeover.

The Bolivian military has a long history of involvement in the country's politics. In 1967, the Bolivian Army, consisting of around 15,000 ill-trained conscripts, was responsible for combating guerrillas. The army was ill-equipped for this counter-insurgency mission, and the country was facing a growing internal insurgency. The United States provided military aid and helped train a counter-insurgency force, which ultimately defeated Che Guevara's guerrilla movement.

In more recent times, the Bolivian military has continued to play a role in the country's politics. In 2024, General Juan José Zúñiga of the Bolivian Army led an attempted coup against President Luis Acre. The army stormed the Presidential Palace in La Paz, but the coup attempt was unsuccessful, and General Zúñiga was arrested.

The Bolivian military's involvement in politics has had significant impacts on the country, both historically and in recent times. The military's role in the country's internal security and defence has often led to tensions and conflicts.

Reactions from other countries

The international community's reactions to the 2019 Bolivian political crisis were mixed, with some countries supporting Morales and others backing new elections without him. The situation was described as a "lesson for everyone" and a "win for democracy" by Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro. Meanwhile, former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva denounced the situation as a 'coup'.

The United States welcomed Morales's resignation, with President Trump calling it a "significant moment for democracy in the Western Hemisphere" and claiming that it paved the way for the Bolivian people to have their voices heard. He also stated that Morales's departure sent a strong signal to the "illegitimate regimes" in Venezuela and Nicaragua.

The European Union's Foreign Policy Chief, Federica Mogherini, urged restraint and called on the parties to lead the country peacefully to new elections. The Technical Mission of Electoral Experts sent by the EU published a report highlighting similar observations and conclusions to those of the OAS, noting irregularities in the voting process.

The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, expressed concern and urged the parties to refrain from violence and exercise maximum restraint. The UN welcomed a later agreement, known as the Law of Guarantees, made between the interim government and both chambers of government.

Cuba and Venezuela, socialist allies of Bolivia, condemned the situation as a coup. Mexico's foreign minister, Marcelo Ebrard, also viewed the resignation as a coup and offered Morales political asylum. Nicaragua strongly condemned the situation, describing it as a coup against Morales and rejecting what it called "fascist practices".

Other countries that supported Morales and described the situation as a coup included Argentina, Peru, Uruguay, Iran, Russia, Syria, and Turkey.

On the other hand, the Socialist International, in a meeting of its Committee for Latin America, accepted the findings of the OAS and declared that Morales was not a victim of a coup.

Reactions to the 2024 coup attempt

The global reaction to the 2024 coup attempt in Bolivia was swift and united, with condemnation coming from across the political spectrum. Richard Verma, the U.S. deputy secretary of state for management and resources, stated that the U.S. condemned the attempted coup and any attempt to subvert the constitutional order.

The reactions also included expressions of concern for the state of democracy in Bolivia, with skepticism and questions surrounding the events and the future of the country's democratic system.

Frequently asked questions