Belarus-Russia Relations: What Do Belarusians Think Of Russians?

Belarus and Russia have historically shared close economic and political ties, with Russia being Belarus' largest and most important economic and political partner. However, in recent years, the relationship between the two countries has become strained due to several factors, including the Russo-Ukrainian War, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the controversial re-election of Alexander Lukashenko in 2020. While the Belarusian government, led by Lukashenko, has maintained a pro-Russian stance, the Belarusian people's views towards Russia are mixed. Some Belarusians hold negative views towards Russia due to historical oppression, imperialist sentiments, and rude behaviour by Russian tourists, while others recognise the cultural and historical similarities between the two nations and wish to maintain close relations. The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 Belarusian protests have further complicated the relationship, with Russia providing support to Lukashenko's regime while the West imposed sanctions. Belarus's role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine has also impacted how Belarusians are perceived internationally, with some viewing them as co-aggressors. Overall, the relationship between Belarus and Russia is complex and evolving, shaped by geopolitical tensions, historical connections, and domestic politics in both countries.

Belarusians' perception of Russians

Historical Context and Cultural Similarities:

Belarus and Russia share a long history, having been part of the same empire for centuries. This shared history has left cultural imprints on both nations, including linguistic and religious similarities. Many Belarusians acknowledge these historical and cultural ties, recognising the two nations as close neighbours with interconnected identities. However, some Belarusians also express a desire to assert their distinct Belarusian identity, separate from Russian influence.

Political and Geopolitical Dynamics:

Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner. This interdependence has shaped the perceptions of Russians among Belarusians, with some viewing Russia as a crucial ally and others seeing it as a dominant force exerting undue influence. Belarus's dependence on Russia has been a source of contention for some Belarusians, who seek greater independence and sovereignty.

Recent Political Developments:

The relationship between the two countries has been strained in recent years due to several political developments. The election of Alexander Lukashenko as President of Belarus and his controversial policies have led to protests and international sanctions. Lukashenko's alignment with Russia, particularly during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, has further complicated Belarusians' perception of Russians. Some Belarusians hold Russia and Russians responsible for enabling Lukashenko's authoritarian rule and isolating their country from the West.

Public Opinion and Sentiment:

Public opinion in Belarus regarding Russians is diverse and varies across different segments of society. According to opinion polls and surveys, a significant portion of Belarusians hold unfavourable views of the Russian government and its policies. They criticise Russian imperialism, chauvinism, and the belief that Russia has a right to dominate Eastern Europe. Many Belarusians also express frustration with the behaviour of Russian tourists visiting their country, perceiving them as loud, rude, and ill-mannered. However, it is important to note that these sentiments are not universal, and some Belarusians maintain positive perceptions of Russians, acknowledging the cultural and historical connections between the two nations.

Impact of the Ukraine Conflict:

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has further influenced Belarusians' perception of Russians. Some Belarusians express solidarity with Ukraine and view Russians negatively due to Russia's aggression and violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. They emphasise that Belarus and Ukraine share common interests and face similar challenges in their pursuit of independence. However, there are also Belarusians who understand the complexities of the conflict and acknowledge that not all Russians support the war.

In conclusion, Belarusians' perception of Russians is shaped by a multitude of factors, including historical ties, cultural similarities, political dynamics, and recent geopolitical events. While some Belarusians express negative sentiments towards Russians due to political disagreements and a desire for independence, others maintain more positive views, recognising the cultural and historical connections between the two nations.

The role of Lukashenko

Alexander Lukashenko has been the President of Belarus since 1994. In the early years of his presidency, Lukashenko sought to maintain a neutral stance, shifting his overtures between Russia and Western nations as it suited his needs. However, following the 2020 disputed presidential election, in which Lukashenko claimed an implausible landslide victory, he faced the biggest challenge to his power in 26 years.

2020 Disputed Election

Protests erupted across Belarus on an unprecedented scale, with demonstrators contesting the election results and security forces arresting thousands. Lukashenko turned to Vladimir Putin for help, and the Russian President announced that his military stood ready to intervene "if necessary". This emboldened Lukashenko to crack down on the protests, with mass arrests and torture of detainees.

Lukashenko's Reliance on Putin

Lukashenko's actions came at a cost, as the door to the West closed, leaving him with only one option: Russia. Lukashenko needed financial support, and Putin provided it. In February 2022, Russian forces were permitted to stage part of the invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory, demonstrating Lukashenko's alignment with Russia.

Impact on Belarus-Russia Relations

Lukashenko's dependence on Putin has had repercussions for Belarus's relationship with Russia. In 2020, Russia cut economic subsidies for Belarus after Lukashenko accused Putin of trying to incorporate Belarus into Russia. Additionally, there have been disputes over oil imports, with Lukashenko accusing Russia of using oil as leverage to procure an eventual merger of the two nations.

Despite these tensions, Lukashenko has expressed a willingness to unite with Russia. In 2019, he declared that the two countries "could unite tomorrow, no problem," an idea backed by Putin. However, political analysts suggest that Lukashenko's public stance may be different from his private one, and that he may be playing a "tough" role for the public while trying to appear weak in front of Putin.

Public Opinion in Belarus

Public opinion in Belarus regarding Lukashenko's regime and the country's relationship with Russia is mixed. Opinion polling is limited, but studies by foreign think tanks have found growing discontent with Lukashenko's regime and ambivalence about Belarus's deepening relationship with Russia. However, there is a significant number of Belarusians who believe the country should align with both Russia and the EU, or avoid geopolitical blocks altogether, reflecting a desire to maintain independence and sovereignty.

Belarus's relationship with Russia

Belarus and Russia share a land border and constitute the supranational Union State. They are members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations. Russia is Belarus' largest and most important economic and political partner.

After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the newly formed Russian state tried to maintain control over the post-Soviet space by creating the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). However, Belarus, like other CIS republics, began to drift away from Russia, which was attempting to stabilise its economy and build ties with the West.

In the early 1990s, Russia was concerned that involvement in Belarus would risk its relations with the West. However, as NATO expanded eastward, Russia found itself in a difficult situation. On the one hand, it faced the breakup of the large geopolitical bloc it had once controlled. On the other, it felt the West was trying to isolate it. This led to the increasing importance of good relations with Belarus.

In the mid-1990s, Belarus seemed an ideal candidate for integration with Russia, especially after Alexander Lukashenko came to power in 1994. The integration process was launched in 1996, and the Union of Belarus and Russia was founded a year later. This culminated in the establishment of a Union State between the two nations in 1999.

Despite this close relationship, the strategic value of Belarus to Russia has continued to rise due to international developments, including increased US military activity in the post-Soviet space, the eastward shift of Eastern European states, and plans to deploy NATO's missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic.

In recent years, the relationship between Belarus and Russia has become strained. Lukashenko has pressed a revival of Belarusian identity, delivering a speech in Belarusian (rather than Russian) in which he stated, "We are not Russian—we are Belarusians." Trade disputes, a border dispute, and a more relaxed official attitude towards dissident voices have all contributed to a weakening of the once-warm relationship.

The 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which Lukashenko controversially claimed to have won with 80% of the vote, further strained the relationship. Facing mass protests, Lukashenko turned to Russian President Vladimir Putin for help, and Putin declared that Russian military intervention was possible "if necessary". An emboldened Lukashenko subsequently cracked down on protesters, with mass arrests and torture of detainees.

In January 2020, Russia temporarily suspended its discounted sale of oil to Belarus, and Lukashenko accused Russia of using oil as leverage to procure an eventual merger of the two nations. In the same year, Lukashenko accused Russia of offering a $500 million loan on the condition that Belarus recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

In 2022, Belarus played a key role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The country hosted Russian troops in the months preceding the invasion and served as a staging ground for the attack. However, opinion polling in Belarus has found growing discontent with Lukashenko's regime and ambivalence among Belarusians about their country's deepening relationship with Russia.

Russian imperialism

Historically, Russia has exerted political, economic, cultural, and military influence over Belarus, dating back to the 16th century when Moscow proclaimed itself the third Rome and began its expansionist conquests. This included the colonisation of neighbouring lands and the establishment of an "All-Russian nation" comprising Great Russians, Little Russians (Ukrainians), and White Russians (Belarusians). Emperor Nicholas I further solidified this union with the ideology of "Orthodoxy, Autocracy, and Nationality", which emphasised Eastern Orthodox Christianity, loyalty to the emperor, and Russianness.

In more recent times, the relationship between Russia and Belarus has been complex and dynamic. After the Soviet Union's collapse, Belarus, like other republics in the Commonwealth of Independent States, began to drift away from Russia, which was focused on stabilising its economy and ties with the West. However, as NATO expanded eastward, Russia's strategic interest in maintaining good relations with Belarus increased. This led to the signing of several treaties and the foundation of the Union of Belarus and Russia in 1996, followed by the establishment of a Union State between the two countries in 1999.

Despite periods of strained relations and conflicts, such as the Gas Wars and trade disputes, Russia and Belarus have continued to cooperate in various domains, including military drills and joint military-scientific activities. Belarus has also allowed Russian forces to stage invasions of Ukraine from its territory and has supported Russia's annexation of Ukrainian territories.

Public opinion in Belarus towards Russia is varied. Some Belarusians express negative sentiments due to Russia's imperialistic tendencies, chauvinism, and the belief that Russia views Belarus as a lesser state within its sphere of influence. Others hold more positive views, citing historical and cultural connections, shared language, and similar ideologies. Still, others acknowledge Russia's rich culture and heritage while condemning its imperialistic actions and the current government's oppressive nature.

Overall, the complex dynamics between Belarus and Russia, shaped by historical contexts, geopolitical considerations, and ideological alignments, continue to evolve, with Russian imperialism playing a significant role in shaping their relationship.

The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War

The Russo-Ukrainian War has had a significant impact on Belarus's relationship with Russia. Belarus has played a key role in the war by allowing Russian troops to gather in the country under the guise of joint training exercises and providing a staging ground for the invasion of Ukraine. This has led to sanctions being imposed on Belarus by the European Union and the United States, which have targeted Belarusian banks, financial systems, and military officials. The war has also led to a shift in public opinion in Belarus, with growing discontent with the country's dependence on Russia and its authoritarian leader, Alexander Lukashenko.

One of the most significant impacts of the war on Belarus has been the deterioration of its relationship with Ukraine. Due to Belarus's involvement in the war, many Ukrainians perceive Belarusians as enemies and supporters of the Russian aggression. This has created a sense of hostility and discord between the two nations, which previously had close ties. However, it is important to note that the Belarusian opposition and many individuals have expressed their support for Ukraine and rejected Lukashenko's regime.

The war has also had economic consequences for Belarus. The sanctions imposed by the EU and the US have effectively blocked billions of euros' worth of annual exports to the EU and limited imports. Additionally, Belarus has lost its access to discounted oil sales from Russia, leading to a diversification of its oil imports from countries like Norway, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.

The Russo-Ukrainian War has also impacted the political landscape in Belarus. Lukashenko has faced widespread protests and opposition due to his controversial election victory in 2020 and his alignment with Russia during the war. These protests have been met with a brutal crackdown, resulting in mass arrests, torture, and the suppression of human rights organizations. Lukashenko's actions have further isolated Belarus from the West and pushed it closer to Russia, with Putin providing support to maintain his rule.

The war has also led to a shift in Belarus's geopolitical stance. While previously seeking to balance its relations between Russia and the EU, Belarus has become increasingly dependent on Russia for economic and political support. This has raised concerns among experts, who believe that Putin aims to absorb Belarus into his envisioned Russian empire, along with Ukraine.

Overall, the Russo-Ukrainian War has had far-reaching consequences for Belarus, impacting its relationships with neighbouring countries, its economy, and its political landscape. The war has highlighted the complex dynamics between Belarus and Russia, with Lukashenko's regime walking a fine line between maintaining power and facing growing discontent from its people.

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