Belarus And Russia: A Complex Relationship Of Influence

Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia to the east and northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Belarus has a population of 9.1 million and is ruled by the authoritarian Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994.

Lukashenko has maintained close ties with Russia, and the two countries signed a treaty in 2000 for greater cooperation, forming the Union State. In 2020, Lukashenko became dependent on Russian President Vladimir Putin for support after rigging a presidential election, which sparked mass protests. Putin sent Russian troops to Ukraine in February 2022 under the guise of joint military exercises with Belarusian troops, and it is believed that some of these troops will join the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In February 2022, Belarus also voted to renounce its non-nuclear status, which means that Russia could potentially move nuclear weapons into Belarus. This, along with the presence of Russian troops, has been described as a “de facto Russian takeover of Belarus.

Belarus's proximity to Russia and Ukraine

Belarus is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe, sharing a 1,084km (674mi) border with Ukraine to the south. Belarus is also bordered by Russia to the east and northeast, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Belarus is a close ally of Russia and has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The proximity of Belarus to Ukraine has been strategically important to Russia during the invasion. Before the start of the offensive, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform weeks-long military drills on its territory. Belarus also allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

The proximity of Belarus to Russia has also been significant. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, Belarus has retained close ties with Russia. In 1999, the two countries signed the Union State Foundation Treaty, aiming to create a politically integrated confederation with a common currency. Belarus has also allowed Russia to station nuclear weapons on its territory.

The proximity of Belarus to both Russia and Ukraine has had a significant impact on its domestic politics. In 2020, mass protests erupted across the country following a disputed presidential election in which long-time authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko sought a sixth term in office. Lukashenko was supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who bailed out the Belarusian economy and made clear his opposition to any efforts to democratize the country.

In August 2024, tensions between Belarus and Ukraine escalated, with Ukraine warning Belarus to pull its troops back from the Ukrainian border and "cease unfriendly actions" or risk becoming further embroiled in the war. Ukraine's statement noted that Belarus was amassing a significant number of personnel, weapons, and military equipment near the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, posing a threat to national and global security.

The authoritarian rule of Alexander Lukashenko

Since 1994, Belarus has been ruled by the authoritarian Alexander Lukashenko, who has been labelled by the media as "Europe's last dictator". Lukashenko has been the president of Belarus since the office's establishment in 1994, making him the current longest-serving head of state in Europe. He has been in power for six terms, and is seeking a seventh consecutive term in the upcoming January 2025 election.

Lukashenko's rule has been characterised by the suppression of dissent, human rights violations, and the persecution of non-governmental organisations, independent journalists, national minorities, and opposition politicians. He has also been criticised for his controversial statements, which have been regarded as antisemitic, homophobic, and misogynistic.

Lukashenko's early economic policies aimed to prevent the establishment of oligarchic structures and mass unemployment, which occurred in other post-Soviet states. He kept many industries under the control of the government, and opposed economic shock therapy during the 1990s post-Soviet transition, maintaining state ownership of key industries in Belarus. This has resulted in Belarus continuing several Soviet-era policies, such as state ownership of large sections of the economy.

Under Lukashenko, Belarus has retained close ties with Russia, its most dominant neighbour. In 1999, the two countries signed the Union State Foundation Treaty, which aimed to create a politically integrated confederation with a common currency. Lukashenko also played a crucial role in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus, enabling Belarusians and Russians to travel, work, and study freely between the two countries.

Lukashenko's relationship with the EU has been strained, largely due to his policies towards domestic opponents. The EU has imposed sanctions on Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials, and does not recognise him as the legitimate president of Belarus following the disputed 2020 election.

Lukashenko's rule has been described as "Lukashism" or "Lukashenkoism", which is referred to as "a mutant version of the Soviet Union's deal with its people: they pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work; we pretend to vote for him; he pretends that the vote is fair".

The influence of the Soviet Union

Belarus, formerly known as Byelorussia or White Russia, was under Soviet rule for much of the 20th century. The influence of the Soviet Union on Belarus was profound and enduring, shaping its politics, economy, and culture. Here is an overview of the key aspects of Soviet influence on Belarus:

Political System:

One-Party Rule: Belarus, as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic (BSSR), was a one-party socialist state during its time as a Soviet republic. The Communist Party of Byelorussia, a branch of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), governed the country.

Economic Policies:

Central Planning: The Soviet Union implemented central planning and state control over the economy, including agriculture and industry. This approach continued to some extent in independent Belarus, with the state retaining ownership of large sections of the economy.

Social and Cultural Policies:

• Russification: Soviet rule brought about a process of Russification, which involved the promotion of the Russian language, culture, and identity in Belarus. This included suppressing the use of the Belarusian language in schools and the media.
• Suppression of Religion: The Soviet Union followed an atheist ideology, and religious organizations were discouraged or prohibited. This policy was relaxed later, with the Belarusian Orthodox Church gaining privileged status in the 2000s.

Education and Propaganda:

• Education System: The Soviet Union established a standardized education system across Belarus, promoting Marxist-Leninist ideology and Soviet patriotism.
• Propaganda and Censorship: The Soviet authorities tightly controlled information and propaganda, with censorship of media and suppression of dissenting voices.

Foreign Policy:

Soviet Foreign Policy: As a Soviet republic, Belarus's foreign policy was aligned with the Soviet Union and its communist ideology. This included participation in the Warsaw Pact and Comecon.

Social Changes:

Social Equality: The Soviet Union promoted social equality and the empowerment of the working class, which had a significant impact on Belarusian society.

Infrastructure Development:

• Industrialization: The Soviet Union promoted industrialization in Belarus, establishing new industries, particularly in Minsk and other major towns.
• Collective Farming: The Soviet agricultural policies, including collectivization, had a significant impact on rural areas, transforming traditional farming practices.

Border Changes:

Territorial Changes: The Soviet rule brought about changes to Belarus's borders, particularly after World War II. The incorporation of Western Belorussia in 1939 and border adjustments after World War II shaped the country's modern borders.

Legacy of Repression:

Political Repression: The Soviet rule was marked by political repression, with purges and the suppression of dissent. Many intellectuals and dissidents lost their lives during the Great Purge in the 1930s.

Resistance and Partisan Movements:

Partisan Movements: During World War II, Belarus was home to strong anti-Nazi partisan movements, which played a significant role in the country's resistance and later became a core part of Belarusian national identity.

The 2020 election and subsequent protests

The 2020 election in Belarus, which took place on August 9, saw mass demonstrations break out across the country in protest against election fraud. The demonstrations, the largest anti-government protests in the history of Belarus, were met with brutal suppression from the government, with over 6,000 people detained and hundreds beaten and tortured.

The protests were sparked by the announcement of the official election results, which saw Alexander Lukashenko declared the winner. Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus since 1994, sought his sixth term in office in the 2020 election. The main opposition candidate, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, rejected the results as falsified, claiming instead to have received 60-70% of the votes.

The protests intensified after the election results were announced, with demonstrators taking to the streets in all major cities in Belarus, including Brest, Minsk, Viciebsk, Hrodna, Mazyr, Pinsk, Homel, and Babruisk. The protests started as peaceful demonstrations, but the situation escalated into violence as protesters clashed with authorities. Security forces used police batons, rubber bullets, grenades, water cannons, tear gas, and stun grenades to suppress the protests.

The violent crackdown on the protests resulted in several deaths, including that of a protester, Alexander Taraikovsky, who died near Pushkinskaya metro station. Another protester, Alexander Vikhor, died in a security forces van while awaiting detention due to overcrowded temporary detention centers. There were also reports of sexual abuse and rape, with the United Nations Human Rights Office citing more than 450 documented cases of torture and ill-treatment of detainees.

The European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials in response to the crackdown. The EU, which did not recognize the election outcome, also called for new elections and condemned the violence and detentions.

The protests led to the creation of the Coordination Council, a transitional council aimed at facilitating the transfer of power. The council was led by Tsikhanouskaya, who stated her readiness to lead a transitional government and organize new, free, and fair elections. However, Lukashenko denounced the council as an 'attempt to seize power' and the chief prosecutor launched a criminal case against its members.

The protests and subsequent crackdown brought attention to the role of external actors, particularly Russia, the European Union, and the United States, in the situation in Belarus. Russia was one of the first countries to signal its support for the Lukashenko regime, with Vladimir Putin publicly congratulating Lukashenko on his reelection. The EU and the US, on the other hand, were slow to react to the violations of human rights, with the EU entangled in internal divisions over the appropriate response.

The protests and crackdown continued into 2021, with the Belarusian government tightening its screws on those who continued to demonstrate. The regime passed new laws that further restricted freedoms of expression, association, and assembly. The international community, including the EU and the US, increased their pressure on the Lukashenko regime, with the EU imposing multiple rounds of sanctions and the US introducing its own package of sanctions.

The country's role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Belarus is a close ally of Russia and has supported its eastern neighbour in the invasion of Ukraine. In the lead-up to the conflict, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory. However, the troops did not exit the country as scheduled, and Belarus allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets.

In the initial stages of the conflict, Belarus lent its territory to Russian soldiers to attack Ukraine, but there is no evidence to suggest that it sent its own soldiers into the conflict. However, there have been several reports that emerged among the Belarusian opposition and Ukrainian military that Belarusian troops were in Ukraine fighting together with Russians. These reports have been dismissed by the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, who has stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) would not participate directly in the conflict.

Lukashenko has also been accused of stealing elections, crushing dissent, and dismantling democracy. The UK, the EU, and the US do not recognise him as the legitimate president of Belarus.

The involvement of Belarus in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been condemned in Western countries, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions against Belarus.

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