Bolivia's Political Turmoil: Protests Explained

Protests in Bolivia have been occurring since 2019, with the most notable being the 2019 Bolivian Protests, also known as the Pitita Revolution. The protests were sparked by claims of electoral fraud in the 2019 general election, where Evo Morales was re-elected for a fourth term. The protests resulted in violence and the resignation of Evo Morales, who fled to Mexico. However, protests have continued with supporters of Morales clashing with supporters of the current President Luis Arce.

Accusations of electoral fraud in the 2019 general election

The 2019 Bolivian protests, also known as the Pitita Revolution, were sparked by claims of electoral fraud in the 2019 general election held on 20 October. The incumbent, Evo Morales, was not leading by a large enough margin (10%) to avoid a runoff, but the subsequent publication of the official count showed Morales winning by just over 10%. This raised suspicions of fraud, particularly as some voters already distrusted Bolivia's voting system following Morales' decision to run for a fourth term after the 2016 referendum had voted against this.

The first indication of fraud was when the preliminary vote count was suspended, with Morales not leading by a large enough margin to avoid a runoff. However, when the official count was published, Morales had won by just over 10%, meaning there would be no need for a second round of voting. This raised concerns about the integrity of the election, with some international observers expressing concern.

The Bolivian Electoral Body released two sets of counts: an exit poll that showed Morales with a 9.33% lead over his main opposition, former president Carlos Mesa, and the complete count, which showed Morales at 45.3% and Mesa at 38.2%. Both of these results indicated that a second round of voting would be necessary, as Morales was leading by less than 10%. However, no further updates to the preliminary results were made, and no official results were published overnight.

The next day, as the vote counting was still underway, Morales declared himself the winner of the elections, stating that the outstanding vote from rural areas would guarantee his victory. Most of the remaining votes were expected to go in Morales's favour, although the Organization of American States (OAS) recommended a runoff be held even if Morales's lead exceeded 10 points.

On 21 October, the Plurinational Electoral Organ published data showing that, with 95.30% of the votes verified, Morales's party, the Movement for Socialism (MAS), had obtained 46.86% of the votes, surpassing Mesa's 36.72% by more than 10 percentage points. This meant that Morales would remain in power for a fourth term.

On 6 November, the Bolivian opposition published a 190-page-long report detailing accusations of fraud, including irregularities such as mistaken electoral acts additions, data wiping, and electoral acts where the ruling party obtained more votes than registered voters.

An audit team from the OAS worked to verify the integrity of the election results and, on 10 November, they released a preliminary report that questioned the integrity of the results and recommended another "electoral process". Following this, Morales announced that the government would hold another full election. However, later that day, he resigned after the National Union of Workers, the commanders of the Armed Forces, and the National Police Commander all requested his resignation.

Protests continued, primarily by those who sought Morales's return, with protesters creating blockades on inter-departmental highways, resulting in food and fuel shortages. These protests turned violent, with senior members of MAS and their families being attacked, and houses being vandalised and set on fire.

Violence against opposition protesters

Initial violence targeted opposition protesters, with pro-MAS supporters reportedly being bused into opposition areas, armed, and instructed to clear blockades. This resulted in the death and injury of opposition protesters.

The violence escalated, and senior members of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) and their families were attacked in their homes. Their houses were vandalised and set on fire.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights expressed concern over the new government's response to armed protests in Senkata and Sacaba, which resulted in massacres.

In Sacaba, nine people were killed and over 100 injured in clashes between security forces and protesters. Witnesses said police opened fire on protesters, and most of the dead had bullet wounds.

In El Alto, pro-government supporters and security forces clashed with protesters loyal to Morales. Eight people were injured in this confrontation, according to Bolivia's health ministry.

The removal of presidential term limits

Morales, who served as Bolivia's first Indigenous president from 2006 to 2019, had already served three terms when he ran for re-election in 2019. The 2009 constitution allowed for a maximum of two terms, but the Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal overruled this in 2017, citing Article 23 of the American Convention on Human Rights, which promotes the right to participate in government. This decision was controversial, even among Morales's supporters, as it overturned the results of a 2016 referendum, where a slim majority of Bolivians voted against removing term limits.

The removal of term limits allowed Morales to run for a fourth term, which he won amid allegations of fraud. The suspension of the vote count and the subsequent release of conflicting results raised suspicions, with some voters and international observers expressing concern over the integrity of the elections. An audit by the Organization of American States (OAS) questioned the election results and recommended holding a new electoral process.

The allegations of electoral fraud and the controversial removal of term limits sparked widespread protests across Bolivia. Demonstrators took to the streets, demanding Morales's resignation and a new election. The protests turned violent, with clashes between pro- and anti-Morales supporters, resulting in injuries and deaths. The unrest culminated in Morales's resignation in November 2019, followed by his exile to Mexico.

The interim government's response to protests

The interim government's response to the protests was largely characterised by violence and human rights abuses.

On 15 November 2019, the interim government, led by Jeanine Áñez, adopted a presidential decree deploying the military in "defence of society and public order". This decree exempted members of the armed forces from criminal responsibility when they acted "in legitimate defence or a state of necessity". The decree was inconsistent with international human rights standards and was later repealed on 28 November.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights expressed concerns over massacres committed by the new government in response to armed protests at Senkata and Sacaba. The commissioner called on the interim government to investigate whether the security forces had acted within the constitution and international protocols on human rights.

The interim government also opened an investigation into Morales for "terrorism and sedition". The interior minister, Arturo Murillo, threatened to arrest MAS legislators who refused to recognise the legitimacy of the interim government, for "subversion". He also cautioned journalists reporting on the protests, warning them to "not commit sedition".

The interim government's response to the protests was heavily criticised by international bodies. The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights condemned the government for issuing the decree, and UN Human Rights Chief Michelle Bachelet expressed concern that the situation could spin out of control if it was handled insensitively.

In addition, the interim government's actions were scrutinised by a group of international experts, the Interdisciplinary Group of Independent Experts (GIEI). Their report, released in August 2021, documented serious human rights violations, including two brutal massacres by security forces and acts of violence instigated by the Morales government. The report exposed failures by the Attorney General's Office to adequately investigate and ensure accountability for these crimes.

In response to the report, President Luis Arce revoked the amnesty decree and promised to reform the justice system.

The role of the media

Social media was a powerful tool used by various political actors to spread their messages and mobilise supporters. For example, supporters of the ousted president, Evo Morales, utilised social media to denounce the coup and call for his return. Similarly, opponents of Morales took to social media to express their discontent with his government and call for his resignation. This polarisation of narratives on social media contributed to the tense atmosphere and deepening political schism in the country.

However, it is important to note that the role of social media in the Bolivian coup is not without controversy. Some analysts argue that social media platforms were used to amplify narratives that supported the coup based on half-truths and misinformation. Additionally, a large anti-Morales Twitter bot network was uncovered, suggesting that automated accounts were used to manipulate public opinion and create a false sense of opposition to Morales.

Traditional media outlets also played a significant role in covering the protests and providing information to the public. However, they faced certain challenges and risks. For example, Wilson Aguilar, a correspondent for the Cochabamba newspaper Los Tiempos, reported being assaulted by Morales supporters during a press conference. Additionally, the newspaper El Deber reported receiving pressure from the Vice Minister of Communication to publish a specific headline encouraging protesters to demobilise.

Furthermore, some media outlets faced security threats and were forced to temporarily suspend their operations. For instance, the newspaper Página Siete announced that it would not publish its morning edition due to security concerns. Similarly, the newspaper El Diario also suspended its print edition due to safety reasons.

In conclusion, the role of the media in the 2019 Bolivian protests was complex and multifaceted. Social media platforms played a significant role in shaping public opinion and mobilising supporters, while also facing criticism for amplifying misleading narratives and the use of bots. Traditional media outlets provided extensive coverage of the protests but faced challenges such as assaults on journalists and pressure from political actors. The complex interplay between social media and traditional media outlets contributed to the overall dynamics of the protests and the political situation in Bolivia.

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