Damon Mcknight
Climate change is a pressing issue that is impacting all continents on Earth, and Australia is no exception. The causes of climate change in Australia are complex and multifaceted, but human activities and natural influences play a significant role. Human-induced drivers, such as the emission of greenhouse gases, land use changes, and deforestation, have been dominant factors in recent decades. Natural variations, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), also contribute to the changing climate in Australia. The combination of these factors has led to an increase in extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and a decline in biodiversity, posing significant challenges to both human society and natural ecosystems in Australia.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Cause of climate change in Australia | Greenhouse gas emissions |
| Australia's electricity generation emissions | 34% of total emissions |
| Australia's energy sector emissions | 70% of energy sector emissions in 2019, projected to increase to 75% by 2030 |
| Australia's coal power usage | 66% of grid-connected electricity generation in 2020 |
| Australia's renewable energy usage | Growing, with most coal-fired power stations to cease operation between 2022 and 2048 |
| Australia's overall commitment to emissions reduction | Insufficient |
| Australia's climate change impact | Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, bushfires, and floods |
| Impact on the Great Barrier Reef | Coral bleaching due to rising sea temperatures |
| Impact on water supply | Decreased streamflow in 28% of Hydrological Reference Stations between 1970 and 2024 |
| Impact on biodiversity | 90 Australian animal species identified at risk |
| Global impact of climate change | Ocean warming, rising sea levels, and extreme weather events |
| Australia's temperature change since 1910 | Average increase of 1.51 °C |
| Australia's temperature change since 1880 | Average global increase of 1.2 °C |
| Australia's temperature change since pre-industrial levels | Increase of 2°C, with a goal to limit to 1.5°C |
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What You'll Learn
Greenhouse gas emissions
Human activities are the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions, which trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere and contribute to global warming. In Australia, emissions from electricity generation are the largest source, accounting for 34% of the country's total emissions. However, emissions in this sector have been falling since 2016 due to the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources. South Australia, in particular, has made significant progress in reducing its greenhouse gas emissions, with a 42% decrease from 2004-05 to 2020-21, largely due to its investment in renewable energy.
Transport is currently the second-highest source of emissions in Australia, followed by agriculture. Stationary energy emissions have increased at an average rate of 1.4% per year since 1990 and are projected to remain stable until 2030. Liquefied natural gas production is a significant contributor within the energy sector, accounting for 70% of the sector's emissions in 2019 and expected to rise to 75% by 2030.
Australia's commitment to emissions reduction has been rated as "insufficient" by the Climate Action Tracker. While the country has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, its policies and actions are not in line with these targets. The Australian government's continued investment in natural gas projects and refusal to increase the 2030 emissions target pose significant challenges to mitigating climate change.
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Coal power for electricity
Australia has historically relied on coal power for its electricity, with coal accounting for 66% of grid-connected electricity generation in 2020. This is because coal plants are cheap to run. However, they are also highly polluting, and emissions from coal-fired power stations are a major contributor to climate change.
Australia has made a commitment to reducing its emissions, and this will involve moving away from coal. In fact, most existing coal-fired power stations are scheduled to cease operation between 2022 and 2048, with all stations projected to shut down by 2038, five years earlier than previously expected. This will involve a transition to renewable energy sources, with a particular focus on solar power.
To facilitate this transition, Australia will need to build new infrastructure, particularly transmission lines, to deliver electricity generated by renewables to its main grid. This process will be guided by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), which releases a new plan every two years. AEMO's plans aim to find the optimal development path, which is the cheapest and most effective mix of electricity generation, storage, and transmission that meets the country's reliability and security needs.
While Australia is taking steps to move away from coal, its overall commitment to emissions reduction has been rated as "insufficient" by the Climate Action Tracker. This is due to the Australian government's continued investment in natural gas projects, refusal to increase its 2030 domestic emissions target, and lack of progress in meeting its current target.
Despite the challenges, Australia is on a path to transitioning away from coal-fired power and towards renewable energy sources, which is an important step in reducing its emissions and mitigating the impacts of climate change.
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Ocean warming
The south-east and south-west of Australia are global warming hotspots, with rates of warming above the global average. The East Australian Current, which now extends further south, has created an area in the Tasman Sea where the warming rate exceeds the global average. This warming has led to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves, impacting the east coast of Australia in 2023-24. Additionally, there has been warming across large areas of the Indian Ocean region to the west of Australia.
The physical characteristics of the ocean, such as temperature, salinity, oxygen content, and pH, are all undergoing changes due to climate change. Warmer waters have lower oxygen solubility, leading to decreased oxygen levels in the ocean interior and intermediate waters. This reduction in oxygen can trigger ecosystem-wide changes, including losses in biomass and food-web complexity. Climate change-induced stratification of surface waters is expected to further reduce nutrient availability, potentially impacting marine life.
The Great Barrier Reef, one of Australia's ecological treasures, is also under threat from ocean warming. Rising ocean temperatures cause coral bleaching, where stressed corals expel their colourful marine algae (zooxanthellae). Prolonged bleaching can lead to coral death. The Great Barrier Reef has experienced mass bleaching events in 2016, 2017, and 2020, underscoring the urgent need to address ocean warming and its impacts on this fragile ecosystem.
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Extreme weather events
Australia has always experienced extreme weather events, but human-caused climate change is warming the country and its surrounding oceans at an unnatural pace, changing weather patterns and modifying the structure and moisture content of the atmosphere. This is leading to changes in the occurrence and intensity of many extreme weather events.
The Australian climate has warmed by a mean of 1.4 °C on land and 1.1 °C in the oceans since consistent national records began. Most of the increase in temperatures over Australian land areas has occurred since the 1950s, and temperatures have continued to increase over the past five years. Globally, air temperatures have increased by around 1.2 °C since the late 1800s. The country's warming is primarily driven by its heavy use of coal power for electricity, accounting for 66% of grid-connected electricity generation in 2020.
The CSIRO predicts that a temperature rise of between 2 and 3 °C on the Australian continent could incur some of the following extreme weather occurrences:
- Wind speeds of tropical cyclones
- More powerful tropical cyclones
- Longer droughts
- More frequent and intense marine heatwaves
- More frequent and intense flash floods
- More frequent and intense thunderstorms
- More frequent and intense heatwaves
The warming of the Australian continent and sea surface has continued unabated, accompanied by unprecedented weather extremes and associated disasters, with devastating consequences for the environment, the economy, and the Australian people. The intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, bushfires, and floods, are changing. Since the 2016 state of the environment report, ongoing increases in land and sea temperatures across Australia, driven by climate change, have coincided with multiple extreme weather events.
In 2023, Australia experienced a range of extreme weather events, including:
- The wide-ranging impacts of Cyclone Jasper in Queensland
- The South Australian September heatwave
- Early season bushfires in Queensland
- Extreme winter heat in New South Wales and an early end to the snow season in the Australian Alps
- Compounding rain and wind causing widespread damage in Hobart
- Devastating floods in the Northern Territory and northwest Queensland
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Droughts and bushfires
Australia has warmed by 1.51 °C since national records began in 1910, with most of the warming occurring since 1950. The country has witnessed a 15% decline in late autumn and early winter rainfall and a 25% decline in average rainfall in April and May since the mid-1990s. The annual number of hot days (above 35°C) and very hot days (above 40°C) has increased across most areas since 1950. Heatwaves are also becoming more frequent, longer, and more intense, with temperatures reaching new highs.
These changes in temperature and rainfall patterns have had a significant impact on the frequency and severity of droughts and bushfires in Australia. Droughts are periods of abnormally dry weather that can last for months or even years. They are characterized by a lack of precipitation, including rainfall, which results in water shortages and impacts various sectors such as agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. Droughts are a natural part of Australia's climate, but their intensity and frequency have been influenced by climate change.
Droughts have severe ecological, economic, and social consequences. They can lead to vegetation stress, reduced crop yields, water scarcity for human and animal consumption, and increased risk of bushfires. Drought conditions can also cause soil moisture levels to decrease, making it challenging for vegetation to absorb water, which further exacerbates the impacts of water scarcity.
Bushfires, or wildfires, are a significant concern in Australia, particularly in regions like New South Wales (NSW), which is one of the most bushfire-prone areas in the country. Bushfires are influenced by various factors, including fuel load, fuel dryness, weather conditions, and ignition sources. Climate change affects these factors, contributing to an increased risk and impact of bushfires.
Fuel load refers to the amount of vegetation available to burn. Climate change, driven by increased carbon dioxide levels, impacts vegetation growth and can lead to higher fuel loads. Additionally, higher temperatures and lower rainfall associated with climate change result in drier fuel, which burns more easily and intensifies bushfires.
The warming climate also influences weather conditions, leading to an increase in "high fire weather" days. These are periods characterized by low humidity, high temperatures, and strong winds, creating ideal conditions for the ignition and rapid spread of bushfires. Lightning strikes, the main natural ignition source for bushfires, are expected to become more frequent as climate change increases the occurrence of extreme weather events.
The combination of these factors results in longer and more intense bushfire seasons, as evidenced by the devastating bushfires that occurred in Australia during 2019 and 2020. These bushfires burned through vast areas of land, causing loss of life, destruction of habitats and infrastructure, and severe economic impacts. The severity of these fires was influenced by the prolonged drought conditions that preceded them, highlighting the interconnected impacts of climate change on droughts and bushfires.
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Frequently asked questions
The main cause of climate change in Australia is human activity, specifically the emission of greenhouse gases. Australia is one of the highest per capita emitters of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry. The country's electricity generation is the largest source of emissions, followed by transport and agriculture.
Australia has warmed by 1.51 °C since national records began in 1910, with most of the warming occurring since 1950. This has led to an increase in extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, bushfires, and floods. Climate change has also caused ocean warming, rising sea levels, and coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef.
Australia has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The country is transitioning to renewable energy sources, with most existing coal-fired power stations scheduled to cease operation between 2022 and 2048. However, Australia's overall commitment to emissions reduction is still rated as "insufficient" by the Climate Action Tracker.
