Leslie Massey
Australia faces a multitude of threats, both domestically and internationally. According to ASIO's annual threat assessment, espionage and foreign interference by multiple nations represent the greatest security threat to Australia. Religiously motivated violent extremism and domestic terrorism also remain possible threats, with the dynamics differing from a decade ago, as extremists are now self-radicalising and choosing their own unique belief systems. Environmental issues are also a significant concern, with climate change, pollution, invasive species, and habitat destruction endangering native wildlife and ecosystems. Population growth and urbanisation are further contributing to biodiversity loss and the degradation of Australia's natural environment.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Cyberattacks | 65% of Australians see this as a critical threat |
| Military conflict between the US and China over Taiwan | 61% see this as a critical threat |
| Ongoing conflict in Ukraine | 47% see this as a critical threat |
| Ongoing conflict in the Middle East | 34% see this as a critical threat |
| Global economic downturn | 58% see this as a critical threat |
| Climate change | 54% see this as a critical threat |
| North Korea's nuclear program | 54% see this as a critical threat |
| International terrorism | 53% see this as a critical threat |
| Spread of infectious diseases | 51% see this as a critical threat |
| Artificial intelligence | 46% see this as a critical threat |
| Espionage and foreign interference | N/A |
| Religiously motivated violent extremism | N/A |
| Environmental issues | N/A |
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What You'll Learn
Climate change and environmental issues
The warming of the Australian continent and sea surface has continued, with the Australian climate warming by a mean of 1.4 °C on land and 1.1 °C in the oceans since consistent national records began. The decade from 2011 to 2020 was Australia's warmest on record, and the number of days that break heat records has doubled in the past 50 years. Higher temperatures have led to drier conditions, increasing the likelihood and intensity of wildfires and megafires. The bushfire season in New South Wales now extends to almost eight months, and First Nations groups are raising awareness of the benefits of cultural approaches to controlling fires and caring for the land.
Climate change has also impacted water resources, with droughts becoming more frequent and severe, affecting not just humans but all living things that depend on freshwater. Rising sea levels threaten housing and infrastructure, and coastal communities are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Additionally, climate change has been linked to the spread of climate-sensitive infectious diseases and food insecurity, with over 2 million Australian households (21%) experiencing severe food insecurity in the previous 12 months due to disasters such as floods, bushfires, and droughts.
The Australian Defence Force (ADF) plays a crucial role in providing disaster relief in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region. However, with more frequent storms and floods in a changing climate, the capacities of the ADF could be stretched thin. Climate change also poses a threat to national security by potentially causing damage to critical infrastructure, reducing the capacities of the armed forces, and leading to regional political instability and climate insecurity among key allies.
While Australia has implemented various adaptation strategies, its response to the climate crisis has been inadequate and subject to change by politics, public sentiment, and global developments. There is a need for further development of these plans to yield concrete actions and address the urgent health priority posed by climate change.
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Cyberattacks and espionage
State-sponsored cyber actors from countries like China and Russia have been identified as targeting Australian governments, critical infrastructure, and businesses for espionage, information gathering, and potential disruptive cyberattacks. These actors employ evolving techniques, including the use of bespoke tools, to infiltrate and exploit vulnerabilities in Australian cyber networks.
The ACSC report also underscored the threat of cybercrime, with Australian entities remaining attractive targets for cybercriminal syndicates worldwide. The report revealed that the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) responded to over 1,100 cybersecurity incidents in 2023-2024, a significant increase from previous years. These incidents included data breaches, malware infections, and disruptive activities targeting essential services.
Foreign interference and espionage have been identified as principal threats in Australia's Critical Infrastructure Risk Review. The review, developed by the Cyber and Infrastructure Security Centre (CISC), highlights the increasing sophistication of hackers in targeting and exploiting vulnerabilities across interconnected critical infrastructure networks. Poorly managed corporate systems, particularly those with remote access, can further expose organisations to risks of extortion, disruption, or espionage.
Additionally, the Office of National Intelligence (ONI) in its 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, highlighted the risk of foreign interference and sabotage targeting the AUKUS alliance. As the submarine project matures, intelligence services are expected to focus on undermining community support and potentially engaging in sabotage if regional tensions escalate.
The multifaceted nature of these cyber threats underscores the importance of implementing robust cyber security measures, enhancing cyber resilience, and strengthening international cooperation to safeguard Australia's critical systems, infrastructure, and networks.
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Foreign interference and international terrorism
To counter these threats, the Australian Government introduced the National Security Amendment (Espionage and Foreign Interference) Act 2018 (EFI Act), which criminalizes covert and deceptive activities intended to interfere with democratic processes and support foreign intelligence activities. The ASIO Annual Threat Assessment 2025 highlights that foreign interference may increase in the coming years, particularly with the maturation of the AUKUS submarine project, making intelligence collection and community sabotage more likely.
International terrorism also poses a critical threat to Australia, as indicated by surveys showing over half of Australians considering it a concern. While specific details on terrorist threats are not publicly available due to their sensitive nature, Australia has experienced terrorist incidents and continues to face the risk of future attacks.
Additionally, Australia's involvement in global affairs, such as its participation in the AUKUS agreement and its role in the Asia-Pacific region, may increase its exposure to international terrorism. The dynamic and diverse security environment, including the war in Europe, turmoil in the Middle East, and the COVID-19 pandemic, further contributes to the complexity of the threat landscape. Australia's response to these challenges involves strengthening its domestic security measures and collaborating with international partners to address shared concerns.
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Population growth and urbanisation
Australia's population is growing rapidly, fuelled by a combination of factors such as natural increase, immigration, and internal migration. This growth is reshaping the country's urban landscape and presenting both opportunities and challenges for the nation.
The majority of Australia's population growth is anticipated to occur in major cities and urban centres, which offer economic opportunities, infrastructure, and amenities that attract migrants and young families seeking employment, education, and a higher standard of living. This trend is expected to continue, with projections showing Australia's population surpassing 30 million by 2030.
One of the primary challenges associated with this population growth is housing affordability and availability. As demand for housing increases in major cities, property prices and rental costs soar, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for many, especially young people and low-income households. This results in issues such as housing stress and homelessness. Urban planners and policymakers are faced with the complex task of balancing the need for housing development with environmental sustainability, heritage preservation, and community cohesion.
Additionally, population growth places significant strain on urban infrastructure and services, including transportation networks, utilities, healthcare facilities, and educational institutions. Rapidly growing cities often experience traffic congestion, overcrowded public transportation systems, and inadequate access to essential services, negatively impacting residents' quality of life and productivity. To address these challenges, urban planners must prioritise the development of compact, mixed-use communities that promote sustainable transportation options and enhance mobility and quality of life for residents.
Furthermore, the distribution of population growth across Australia's regions is uneven. While large cities experience significant growth, many regional areas face shrinking and ageing populations. This disparity has prompted debates about encouraging settlement in smaller centres to ensure a more "sustainable" population distribution. The federal government has proposed visa conditions that would require international migrants to live in "regional Australia" initially, but this has raised concerns about the lack of accompanying measures to support smaller towns' housing and labour markets.
Overall, Australia's population growth and urbanisation present both opportunities and complex challenges. Effective urban planning, policy responses, and governance are crucial to address these challenges and ensure a balanced settlement structure that promotes economic growth, cultural diversity, and social development.
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Pollution and biodiversity loss
Australia's biodiversity is in steep decline, posing a significant threat to the country. The continent and its surrounding seas support 600,000-700,000 native species, with a high proportion found nowhere else in the world. For example, about 85% of Australia's plant species are endemic to the continent, and it is home to half of the world's marsupial species. However, the introduction of exotic species, human activities, and pollution are causing a dramatic decline in the distribution and abundance of many of these species.
The greatest threat to Australia's biodiversity is human impact. The increased rate of population growth has led to habitat change through land clearing and urbanization, hunting, and exploitation. Agriculture clearing has resulted in the removal of around 13% of Australia's original vegetation since European settlement. Overgrazing is also a significant issue, promoting desertification, erosion, and the spread of invasive plants. Intensive agriculture is affecting Australia's coasts and oceans, with large amounts of phosphorus and nitrogen discharged into rivers flowing to the coast each year.
The introduction of exotic species is another major threat. Australia gains around 20 new pests or diseases each year, and invasive species have invaded every part of the landscape. Feral cats, foxes, and rabbits have caused local extinctions and significant reductions in the range of native species through habitat modification and predation. Climate change is also a significant factor, with rising temperatures and sea levels, coral bleaching, and extreme weather events causing habitat loss for many species.
The loss of biodiversity in Australia has far-reaching consequences, including impacts on human health and well-being. Biodiverse ecosystems, such as forests, grasslands, and wetlands, are critical for purifying and protecting water sources, preventing soil erosion, and helping to prevent floods. They also provide psychological benefits, such as reduced stress and improved overall well-being. Additionally, biodiversity is essential for drug discovery and disease prevention, with many potential treatments yet to be discovered in wild species.
Efforts are underway to address the loss of biodiversity in Australia, including the implementation of a common listing process for threatened species and ecological communities. However, there is concern that the current listing processes are failing to keep up with the rapid rate of biodiversity loss. It is crucial to recognize human dependence on nature and respond to Australia's accelerating environmental decline with urgency.
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Frequently asked questions
According to ASIO's annual assessment, espionage and foreign interference are Australia's greatest security threat. Religiously motivated violent extremism and cyberattacks are also significant threats.
Environmental issues threatening Australia include climate change, pollution, invasive species, overfishing, deforestation, and habitat destruction.
Foreign interference is used by nations to shape political and business decision-making in Australia and manipulate messages among communities. Foreign spies also attempt to recruit Australians with access to sensitive information.
ASIO has disrupted dozens of major terrorism plots in Australia since 2014. The dynamics have changed, with extremists now self-radicalising and acting as lone wolves or small groups.
Cyberattacks from other countries are seen as a critical threat to Australia's vital interests. Strong cybersecurity is essential to combat this threat, as highlighted by ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess.
