The Unraveling Of Afghanistan: A Comprehensive Review

Afghanistan is a landlocked country in south-central Asia, bordering Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and China. The country has been in transition for most of its history, having been fought over by great empires for millennia. In recent decades, Afghanistan has been ravaged by war, with the US-led invasion in 2001 to topple the Taliban being the most recent example. The Taliban, a religious and political group, regained control of the country in 2021, causing the US-backed Afghan government to collapse. Since then, the Taliban has imposed policies that severely restrict the rights of Afghans, particularly women and girls. The country is facing a dire humanitarian crisis, with over 90% of the population facing food insecurity and a rise in malnutrition-related diseases. The situation in Afghanistan remains the largest refugee crisis in the Asia and Pacific region, with 6.4 million refugees, 48% of whom are women and girls, and 45% children.

The Taliban's impact on women and girls' education and employment

During their first rule in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, the Taliban imposed a ban on girls' education, allowing them to be educated only until the age of eight. Women seeking further education had to attend underground schools, risking execution if caught. The group also banned women from working, with the exception of some female teachers, nurses, and doctors.

After regaining control of Afghanistan in 2021, the Taliban initially allowed gender-segregated classrooms in universities, but soon prevented most teenage girls from returning to secondary school and blocked women from working in most sectors except health and education. In December 2022, they further restricted women's rights by prohibiting university education and banning women from working in non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

The Taliban's actions have had severe consequences for women and girls in Afghanistan. They face a lack of access to education, limited career opportunities, and increased instances of child marriage and child labor. The quality of education has also been impacted, with reports of qualified teachers being replaced by religious teachers and changes to school curricula.

The international community has condemned the Taliban's actions and made the education of girls a key demand for any future recognition of the Taliban administration. Experts see the treatment of women and girls by the Taliban as a barometer of the group's future actions and fear that the restrictions on education could be the beginning of a large-scale rollback of women's rights in Afghanistan.

The Taliban's effect on the economy and foreign development assistance

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan has had a devastating impact on the country's economy and development prospects. The country was already facing economic challenges prior to the Taliban's return to power, including severe drought, the COVID-19 pandemic, declining confidence in the previous government, falling international military spending, and capital flight. The Taliban's return to power exacerbated these issues, leading to an abrupt cutoff of civilian and security aid, amounting to more than $8 billion per year or 40% of Afghanistan's GDP. This shock to the economy was further exacerbated by sanctions, the freezing of Afghanistan's foreign exchange reserves, and reluctance from foreign banks to do business with the country.

The Afghan economy has contracted sharply since the Taliban's takeover, with a 20.7% GDP contraction in 2021 followed by a further 6.2% contraction in 2022. The proportion of households unable to meet basic food needs more than doubled from 16% to 36% during this period. The economic crisis has been characterised by high inflation, widespread unemployment, and disruptions to public services. The banking sector has been particularly affected, with constraints on international transfers and concerns about liquidity and solvency.

The Taliban's policies and actions have also had a detrimental effect on the economy and development assistance. The group's restrictions on women and girls, including limiting their access to education, employment, and healthcare, have had devastating consequences for households and hindered economic growth. The Taliban's approach to monetary policy, including their appointment of inexperienced officials to key economic positions, has also raised concerns.

However, there have been some positive developments. The Taliban has taken a more positive approach to the private sector, negotiating successfully with private firms over tax rates and other business issues. Corruption has also been reduced, particularly in customs and at road checkpoints, reducing the burden on the private sector.

The future economic outlook for Afghanistan remains uncertain. Structural deficiencies in the private sector and waning international support are expected to impede economic progress, leading to deepening poverty and unemployment. Afghanistan's long-term growth prospects depend on shifting from reliance on international aid and consumption-driven growth to a more resilient, private sector-led economy that capitalises on the country's inherent strengths, such as agriculture and extractive sectors.

The history of Afghanistan's democracy

Afghanistan's history of democracy has been unstable and short-lived since the formation of the contemporary state in the 20th century. The country has been governed by various systems, including a monarchy, republic, theocracy, dictatorship, and a pro-communist state. Here is an overview of the evolution of democracy in Afghanistan:

Kingdom of Afghanistan (1919-1973)

Under the leadership of Ghazi Amanullah Khan, who ruled as Emir and later King, the first elements of a democratic government emerged. Amanullah instituted political reforms modelled on Western democracy, including drafting the country's first constitution, the "Statute of the Supreme Government of Afghanistan." This constitution, approved by tribal elders and government officials, included Article 16, which granted all Afghan citizens equal rights and freedoms. Amanullah also introduced co-educational schools and overturned strict Sharia-based dress codes for women, sparking a revolt by conservative Islamists that led to his overthrow in 1929.

Republic of Afghanistan (1973-1989)

In 1973, Prime Minister Mohammed Daoud Khan seized power in a non-violent coup, abolishing the monarchy and establishing the first Republic of Afghanistan. However, Daoud's rule was autocratic, and he consolidated power by declaring himself both president and prime minister. In 1978, Daoud and his family were assassinated during the Saur Revolution, and the communist People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) seized power, establishing the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA). The DRA introduced contentious reforms, such as land and marriage reforms, and enforced de-Islamization policies alongside the promotion of socialism. The PDPA's rule was marked by power struggles and repression, leading to widespread revolt.

First Taliban Emirate (1989-2001)

Following the withdrawal of Soviet forces in 1989, the country descended into civil war, and the religiously conservative Taliban group rose to power. The Taliban sought to impose their strict interpretation of Sharia law, severely restricting civil rights and causing significant democratic backsliding.

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (2001-2021)

After the September 11 attacks in 2001, a US-led coalition invaded Afghanistan, toppling the Taliban regime. An interim government was established under the presidency of Hamid Karzai, and democratic elections were held in 2004, marking a return to democracy in the country. However, Afghanistan continued to face challenges such as corruption, poor electoral conduct, and the resurgence of the Taliban.

Taliban Rule (2021-present)

In 2021, the Taliban seized power once again, overthrowing the Islamic Republic and establishing an authoritarian regime. The current Taliban leadership rules by decree, with judges and fighters interpreting and applying Sharia law on the spot. The Taliban views the Quran as its constitution and has expressed its intention to implement a strict Islamic state.

The Taliban's censorship and persecution of journalists and activists

Since the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, the country has seen a sharp decline in press freedom. The Taliban has imposed 11 new rules for journalists, which critics say are vaguely worded, dangerous, and liable to be used to persecute them. These rules include directives against publishing topics that are in conflict with Islam or insulting to national personalities, and instructions to produce news reports in coordination with the government media office.

The Taliban has also been accused of deliberately targeting journalists and media workers, including women, through threats, intimidation, and violence. This has led to self-censorship, with journalists avoiding reporting on certain issues for fear of reprisal. Women journalists have been particularly affected, with an estimated 80%-95% losing their jobs or leaving the profession since the Taliban takeover.

The Taliban has also detained and beaten journalists who have tried to report on anti-Taliban protests, arbitrary detentions, rising food prices, and other issues that cast the group in a negative light. In addition, the Taliban's intelligence office has summoned journalists and warned them against publishing "propaganda".

The crackdown on the press has had a significant impact on the flow of information in Afghanistan. Many important stories, such as severe droughts, women's rights, food shortages, and poverty, are going unreported, leaving citizens uninformed. The situation is particularly dire in rural areas, where it is even more difficult to access information.

The decline of press freedom in Afghanistan has also led to a shift in how Afghans consume news, with more people turning to social media platforms like Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook. While this has provided some access to information, it also comes with risks, such as unverified facts and misinformation.

The impact of natural disasters on Afghanistan

Afghanistan is highly prone to intense and recurring natural disasters due to its geographical location and years of environmental degradation. The country's rugged mountain landscape and generally arid climate make it susceptible to earthquakes, flash floods, droughts, snow avalanches, landslides, and blizzards. The impact of these natural disasters on Afghanistan has been devastating, with severe consequences for the country and its people.

One of the most significant impacts is the loss of lives and the disruption of livelihoods. Since 1980, natural disasters have affected approximately 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The frequent occurrence of earthquakes, floods, and landslides has led to a high death toll and left many injured and displaced. For example, the 2023 earthquakes in Herat Province caused around 2,000 deaths and left thousands injured and homeless. Flash floods in 2022 affected approximately 16,000 families, resulting in a death toll of 192 and damaging over 11,000 houses.

Natural disasters in Afghanistan have also led to economic hardships and infrastructure damage. The country's low level of socioeconomic development and limited infrastructure make it extremely vulnerable to disasters. The frequent loss of lives, livelihoods, and public and private property has hindered Afghanistan's growth prospects. The country's economy, which was already struggling, has been further burdened by the impact of natural disasters. Agriculture, which is a vital sector in Afghanistan, has been severely affected by floods and droughts, disrupting food production and impacting the livelihoods of farmers.

Additionally, natural disasters have exacerbated the existing humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. The country has been grappling with poverty, conflict, and political instability, and natural disasters have only worsened the situation. The impact of disasters falls disproportionately on women and children, as they are more likely to be at home and bear the brunt of limited access to essential services such as education, healthcare, and nutrition. The destruction of schools and healthcare facilities has further limited access to these services, particularly for girls and women. The fragile healthcare system, heavily reliant on foreign aid, has struggled to meet the needs of the affected population.

Moreover, natural disasters have led to internal and cross-border displacement, with people seeking safer areas within Afghanistan or fleeing to neighbouring countries. The displacement has resulted in overcrowded living conditions, increasing the risk of disease spread and further straining resources. The impact of natural disasters on Afghanistan's vulnerable population, especially women and children, has been profound, and the country continues to struggle with the aftermath of these disasters while also facing limited international support.

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