The Fragile Stability: Navigating Afghanistan's Macropolitical Landscape

Afghanistan is a country with a high level of macropolitical risk. The country has been plagued by war, terrorism, and political instability for decades, with the Taliban, a Sunni Islamic fundamentalist movement, controlling most of the country from 1996 to 2001. In 2021, the Taliban regained control of the country, leading to a deterioration in human rights, particularly for women and girls, economic instability, acute food insecurity, and severe climate shocks. The country also faces a high risk of terrorist attacks, with multiple groups active, including the Islamic State in Khorasan (ISIS-K) and al-Qaeda. The Taliban is believed to maintain ties with these groups and has been accused of trampling on the rights of women and girls, restricting their access to education and employment. The country's economy is on the verge of collapse, with sanctions and the termination of development aid crippling the financial system. Additionally, the Taliban's restrictive laws and policies have led to a loss of donors and international isolation, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. The United Nations has declared Afghanistan the largest humanitarian crisis in the world, with 24 million people in need of support inside the country and 5.7 million Afghans seeking refuge in neighbouring countries.

The Taliban's relationship with other Islamist terrorist organisations

The Taliban have a close relationship with al-Qaeda, with whom they share a history of cooperation and mutual support. The Taliban provided al-Qaeda with a base from which to recruit, train, and deploy terrorists to other countries. In return, al-Qaeda provided the Taliban with financial and military support.

The Taliban also have ties to other Islamist terrorist organisations, including the Haqqani network, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. The Haqqani network is closely linked to the Taliban, with its leader, Sirajuddin Haqqani, serving as the acting interior minister in the Taliban government. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban, has received support from the Taliban, who have provided them with a safe haven in Afghanistan. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is a Pakistani Sunni sectarian group that has been responsible for attacks on Shias, Sufis, and other Sunni Muslims.

The Taliban's impact on the rights of women and girls

Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021, the human rights of women and girls have been severely restricted. The Taliban has banned girls from attending secondary school and women from attending university, as well as prohibiting women from working in most sectors outside of healthcare and education. Women have also been banned from entering amusement parks, public baths, gyms, and sports clubs, and are required to adhere to a strict dress code. These restrictions have had a devastating impact on the lives of Afghan women and girls, limiting their access to education, employment, and public spaces, as well as other basic freedoms.

The Taliban's policies have resulted in a loss of income and employment for many women, as well as increased feelings of insecurity and social isolation. The financial crisis that followed the Taliban takeover has also disproportionately affected women, with many struggling to feed their families due to lost income, spiking prices, and a lack of access to basic necessities such as food, water, and healthcare.

The Taliban's restrictions on women's rights have been widely condemned by the international community, including the United Nations, human rights organizations, and foreign governments. However, the Taliban has shown little willingness to compromise, and the situation for women and girls in Afghanistan remains dire. The rollback of women's rights has also had a negative impact on the country's economy and efforts to recover from decades of war and instability.

The international community's response to the crisis has been mixed, with some calling for strong actions such as sanctions or even military intervention, while others advocate for a more nuanced approach that prioritizes the immediate needs of Afghan women and girls over political considerations. The complex dynamics between the Taliban, the international community, and internal resistance movements continue to shape the fragile security situation in Afghanistan, with women and girls bearing the brunt of the consequences.

The Taliban's relationship with the US

The US first invaded Afghanistan in 2001, overthrowing the Taliban government to capture Osama bin Laden, who was found in neighbouring Pakistan. This invasion led to the reconstruction of Afghanistan and the re-establishment of its diplomatic relations with the rest of the world.

The US and Afghanistan signed the Strategic Partnership Agreement in 2012, which aimed to strengthen their bilateral relationship, support Afghanistan's capabilities as a partner, and improve the lives of the Afghan people. However, the US-Taliban relationship has been defined by the US's refusal to recognise the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, and the Taliban's refusal to hand over Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks.

The US has also been critical of the Taliban's rollback of human rights, particularly regarding women and girls. The Taliban have banned most girls from attending secondary school, banned all women from attending and teaching at universities, and prevented women from working. The Taliban have also cracked down on press freedom, leading to the closure of more than 200 news organisations.

Despite the US's refusal to recognise the Taliban, the two parties have engaged in diplomacy. In 2020, the US and the Taliban signed the Doha Agreement, which led to the withdrawal of US and Allied forces from Afghanistan. The agreement included pledges from the Taliban to prevent terrorist groups from using Afghan soil to threaten US security. However, the Taliban's relationship with Al-Qaeda remains a significant concern for the US, with analysts worried that the Taliban could provide Al-Qaeda with a safe haven to launch international terrorist attacks.

The US has also been critical of Pakistan's support for the Taliban, which has included financial and logistical aid. The Taliban's return to power has also emboldened Tehrik-e-Taliban, a militant group sometimes referred to as the Pakistani Taliban.

The Taliban's relationship with neighbouring countries

The Taliban's relationship with Pakistan has been particularly tense. Pakistan was one of only three countries, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, to recognise the Taliban's rule in the 1990s. However, the Taliban's relationship with Pakistan has been strained since their return to power. The Taliban have pursued a foreign policy that can be described as nationalistic, asserting Afghan sovereignty and focusing on their group's own needs first. This has included harbouring the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which seeks the overthrow of the Pakistani government, and opposing Pakistan's efforts to fence the border between the two countries along the disputed Durand Line. The Taliban have also threatened Pakistan over its apparent decision to allow US drones to use Pakistani airspace to kill al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul.

The Taliban's relationship with Iran has also been difficult. Iran and Afghanistan have a long-standing dispute over water rights to the Helmand River, which is critical for irrigation in Iran's arid southern provinces. In May 2023, deadly clashes broke out between Taliban and Iranian forces, though both sides denied that the dispute was linked to water rights.

The Taliban have also had border clashes with Turkmenistan, and in September 2023, China became the first country to formally name a new ambassador to Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, even though China still doesn't formally recognise the Taliban.

The Taliban's relationship with Uzbekistan has been strained due to concerns over water rights. In March 2022, the Taliban inaugurated the Qush Tepa Canal, which will divert water from the Amu Darya River, which separates Afghanistan from its Central Asian neighbours. This has raised concerns in the region, as Afghanistan appears to be joining Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in trying to keep more water, even as downstream countries such as Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan need more water for their growing agricultural sectors.

The Taliban's relationship with India has been more positive. The Taliban have made surprising overtures to establish friendly relations with India, which has just reopened its embassy in Kabul.

The Taliban's impact on the economy

The Taliban's harsh rule has seen the rollback of women's rights, with most women banned from working. The UN Development Program (UNDP) estimates that restricting women's employment could cost up to 5% of Afghanistan's GDP.

The Taliban's mismanagement of the country's human resources, particularly its subjugation of women, has also clouded the country's economic prospects.

Afghanistan's long-term growth prospects rely on a shift from reliance on international aid and consumption-driven growth to a more resilient, private sector-led economy.

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